Unless you've been living under the proverbial rock for the last few weeks, then you know about the ongoing saga and theatrics that was the contract negotiation between Manny Ramirez and the LA Dodgers. Well again, unless you failed to remove yourself from said rock, then you also know that Manny finally agreed to a 2yr/$45M deal. The terms of the deal are fairly straight forward in principle but a tad complicated in how it will be paid out. Essentially the Dodgers have exclusive rights to Ramirez's services in 2009. He'll earn $10M outright and the remaining $15M will be paid out over time with no interest. One plan has the Dodgers paying $5M per year from 2010-2012. What happens after 2009 was the sticking point for Ramirez and the team, and I think this is where people are underestimating the overall value of this deal for both parties. Ramirez will have a player option in 2010 worth $20M that he can either accept or decline. If he chooses not to exercise that option, he'll once again become a free agent, and the Dodgers in turn would likely receive compensation in the June 2010 draft. I think it's safe to assume that Ramirez would register as a Type A free agent thus giving the Dodgers maximum benefit in terms of compensation. However, if Ramirez does accept the option, he'll then receive $10M each year from 2010-2012 and then additional installments of $8.33M from 2011-2013.
I've been listening to sports talk radio, particularly WEEI in Boston over the past week or so and heard a lot about what people think of this deal. First thing is first: fans and radio personalities, writers, etc. still hold a lot of resentment towards Ramirez and I think that has been shining through in their opinions towards this deal. The same people that suddenly turned on Ramirez and called for him to leave Boston and have since rooted for his professional demise are arguing that the Dodgers overpaid for a malcontent, selfish and unprofessional ballplayer who will do nothing but disrupt a clubhouse and is nowhere near the value their paying. I completely disagree.
Look at what Ramirez did in his four months or so with LA in 2008. He hit .396 with 17 homeruns and 53 runs batted in over just 53 games. In the playoffs, he batted .520 with four homers, 10 RBIs, nine runs and 11 walks in eight games. Those are god-like numbers, and the results were indicative of that. The Dodgers blitzed past Arizona to claim the NL West crown, swept the NL-favorite Cubs in the NLDS series and then lost in 5 games to the eventual World Series champion Phillies. Although they failed to reach the World Series, it was quite a turnaround for a team that had not done anything significant in the postseason since 1988 when they stunned the Oaklan Athletics in 5 games. In fact the series win over Chicago was the first postseason series win since that '88 season. Manny reinvigorated a franchise that was in need of such, and he did in a situation that was perfect for both parties. LA essentially received Ramirez on a loan from the Red Sox, and Manny basically played out the final four months in a "contract year" type situation. He was playing for a free agent deal in the off season, so the onus was on him to produce at a high level. In turn, the Dodgers gave him a safehaven to do that, away from the media frenzy of Boston and basically providing Manny with a clean slate.
Based on his numbers and the subsequent results, it was safe to assume that both parties had and would make out on this temporary partnership. However, the market never really gained any interest or momentum for Ramirez. The pool of teams was limited and the Dodgers were garnered as the favorite from the onset. Ramirez essentially priced himself out everywhere except LA. This is where my opinion differs from most, particularly media personalities in the Boston area. The opposition argue that LA held the bargaining chip here. The team was not involved in a bidding war with any other teams because there were none. LA could make an offer it was comfortable with, and if Ramirez declined, he was poised to sit out 2009 unless another team swooped in and overpaid or he finally succumbed to the notion that he'd have to compromise and accept the fact he wasn't getting his 4yr/$100M deal. Those same people will go on to argue that Frank McCourt and Ned Colletti mishandled the situation by admitting publicly they really wanted Manny in LA, thus affording him the upper hand in negotiations by making it known they'd do everything in their power to sign the free agent slugger. In turn, agent Scott Boras was able to employ his sit tight and wait game, which lures teams into uncomfortable waters, afraid they'll miss out on a good thing when Boras and his player decline an offer and refuse to present a rebuttal. And that is what happened here. Feeling a sense of urgency, and weary of starting 2009 with Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp and Juan Pierre in the outfield, the Dodgers finally "cracked" and appeased Ramirez with this latest deal.
My opinion, however, is that the Dodgers made a good decision here and both parties will again make out. They get Ramirez for $25M in 2009 but the salary cap will only take a $10M hit in '09 and $5M for each of the next 3 seasons. Meanwhile, Ramirez is essentially playing another contract year. He has everything to play for in '09. If he explodes and continues his torrid production from the 2nd half of 2008 then the Dodgers will be a scary, scary team. Ethier and Kemp are still developing and poised to build off solid campaigns last season. The Dodgers also bring back James Loney, Casey Blake and Russel Martin and the addition of Orlando Hudson at 2nd base should not be overlooked. Hudson hit .305 last season for Arizona and allows Blake Dewitt and Mark Loretta to come off the bench. This lineup will be potent, and with Adam Dunn having left the Diamondbacks you have to feel confident about the Dodgers outlasting their NL West foe en route to a 2nd consecutive division title. Although the Diamondbacks will rely on the one-two tandem of Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, the Dodgers have a couple young rising stars in Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw, while Jason Schmidt returns and could shore up the back end of that rotation.
Meanwhile, if Ramirez chooses to opt out of his deal at the end of 2009, the Dodgers will either have to resign him, or let him go to greener pastures and receive the draft compensation as a result. What it will do, however, is save the team $20M over four seasons. However, if Ramirez doesn't quite have the year he'd hoped for, the market/economy hasn't fully recovered, or he just decides to play out his final year and consider his career options thereafter, LA will get the future Hall-of-Famer at a "discounted" $20M. And if Ramirez determines he'll play beyond 2010, he'll again find himself in a contract year. Bottom line is the Dodgers could potentially have Manny in LA for all or parts of three consecutive seasons, each of which were contract years. And if last year is any indication as to how Manny will produce in a contract year, the Dodgers are poised for an exciting 2009 and, with any luck, more of the same in 2010. If the latter doesn't happen, I still think LA will be in good shape. Young stars like Ethier, Kemp, Loney and Dewitt will have another year of development at the MLB level under their belts, and with Manny's contract off the table, the Dodgers could be major players in the free agent market in 2010. Here are some top outfielders that may be available:
Matt Holliday
Jason Bay
Xavier Nady
Vladimir Guerrero
Magglio Ordonez
Carl Crawford
But there will be other position players and pitchers available, as well. While the list of players is huge, check out some highlights below:
John Lackey (SP)
Rich Harden (SP)
Brandon Webb (SP)
Josh Beckett (SP)
Cliff Lee (SP)
Erik Bedard (SP)
Chipper Jones (3B)
Melvin Mora (3B)
Brian Roberts (2B)
Not bad. I will confess I have Ramirez in an ESPN keeper league, so I'm hoping he just goes off in 2009. That being said, if he's not in Dodger blue come 2010 that means I may have won my league. But what do you think? Did the Dodgers give up too much to get Ramirez? Or do you think giving him the player option for $20M will motivate him to have another great season? Let us know.
-Bess
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