Jimmy the Greek's Week 11 picks

Even though the Thursday night game has come and gone, I'll still include that here so you saw my rationale. Let's get to it...

Panthers (-3.5) over Dolphins
Ronnie Brown is out, and Carolina is rolling. If Brown was playing, you would have seen probably the two most dynamic rushing offenses in football, but the Panthers have the edge here. And I think that gives them a definitive edge.

Packers (-6.5) over 49ers
Green Bay is home and coming off an impressive win over Dallas. San Fran looked good against Chicago, but Jay Cutler threw 5 picks. Aaron Rodgers won't do that. The Pack have the 4th best rushing defense, so they should contain Frank Gore and force Alex Smith to throw the football. Expect a 24-14 type win.

Jaguars (-8.5) over Bills
Sometimes a coaching change will inspire a football time. Sometimes having Ryan Fitzpatrick as your quarterback sucks. The latter will be the case here. MJD3 will run wild today.

Redskins (+11.5) over Dallas
Divisional game here, and Washington comes off a big win over Denver while Dallas comes off the aforementioned loss at Green Bay. Dallas wins, but Washington will hang tough and probably register a late FG or TD to cover.

Falcons (+6.5) over Giants
Both teams desperately need a win here. Michael Turner is out, and Matt Ryan will need to step up with him gone. The Giants have key injuries on defense, and I think that's why Atlanta covers. But I do think the Giants will have success running the football, and coming off a bye week, get the win.

Seahawks (+10.5) over Vikings
Vikings are 23rd in pass defense. Hasselbeck and Houshmanzadeh are hitting their stride. And Justin Forsett could find success running some draw plays to keep the defense honest. I wouldn't be surprised if we see an upset here.

Steelers (-9.5) over Chiefs
Palomalu may be out, but the Chiefs don't have Dwayne Bowe for the next four weeks. Pitt is 1st in the league in rushing defense, and Kansas City is ranked 26th and 25th in rushing and passing defense respectively. Look for Pitt to roll here.

Saints (-11.5) over Bucs
Part of me wants to go with the surging, pesky Buccaneers. But the other part of me realizes the Saints can go off at any time. I think Brees and the Saints offense hits its stride today and rolls, despite some key injuries this week. They'll set up a huge showdown with the Pats on Monday night next week.

Detroit (-3.5) over Browns
Gus Johnson game of the week? Has to be.

Colts (+.5) over Ravens
It's basically a pick 'em, but how is Indy getting the half point in case of a tie? The sexy pick this week is Baltimore pulling the upset, but that defense has been inconsistent and shaky at best this year. I think Peyton rolls.

Cardinals (-8.5) over Rams
Arizona's offense in a dome, on the road? I'll take it. The Cardinals are 4-0 away from home this season, and Kurt Warner returns to St. Louis. This offense could explode today.

Pats (-10.5) over Jets
This could be traumatic for the New York Jets. Even though the game is in Foxboro, it could be reminiscent of the Boston Massacre, this time with the Patriots issuing the fatal, devastating blows.

Chargers (-2.5) over Broncos
Chris Simms starting at quarterback is enough for me. Denver is spiraling at this point, and I don't think they recover this week. The 6-0 start was a nice story, but we had to know it would come to and end. We just never thought it would be this ugly.

Cincy (-9.5) over Raiders
Bruce Gradkowski takes over for the immortal Jamarcus Russel. Ouch. Chad OchoCinco promised Adam Schefter on Twitter this morning that he would carry the load and make sure Schefter's upset pick would NOT ring true. I believe him.

Eagles (-3.5) over Bears
I think Cutler folds under the national spotlight once again. And Philly needs a big win in the worst of ways. Mcnabb seems to like this position, and he'll deliver on the road.

Titans (+4.5) over Texans
A few weeks ago, this game looked gross. But all of a sudden Vince Young has the Titans at 3-6 and making people wonder. Chris Johnson, in the words of Gus Johnson, has running from the cops speed. The Texans come off a bye and Matt Schaub could have a field day against this defense. Should be explosive. I like Tennessee with the points.

Enjoy the games.

-The Greek