As you may have heard Keefe and I discuss on Wednesday's podcast, the UFC is down under (cliche, I know) and The Sports Brief has its preview and picks for you for tomorrow's PPV card. The main event features the resurgent BJ Penn, back at welterweight for the second consecutive fight against a guy who will never be the division's champion as long as Georges St. Pierre has a pulse. Actually, neither guy will be champion as long as GSP is alive.
In terms of the matchup, I have to think the advantage goes to Penn. Fitch has excellent wrestling, and all great wrestlers have traditionally given Penn trouble if they can get him down, particularly guys who are bigger and stronger than him. Case in point: GSP. Frankie Edgar used his superior wrestling skills to taken down Penn, but was unable to sustain any GnP because of the lack in size differential. Here, Fitch is likely the bigger, stronger guy. But I'm not sure his wrestling will be quick enough and elite enough to take down the flexible, well balanced Penn.
For that reason, I think Penn manages to keep it on the feet enough to score well and outpoint the rugged Fitch. The only problem? No one will be interested in either guy challenging GSP again, certainly until he defeats Jake Shields (presumably) and fights UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva. Nonetheless, this should be an entertaining scrap between two elite fighters at 170lbs.
In the co-main event, Michael Bisping continues his campaign for what has been an elusive title shot in the UFC. Every time we've felt he's one or two fights away, he's folded. He did against Rashad Evans in a fight that not only sent Evans on an ascent to an eventual title victory, but also sent Bisping down to 185lbs. Then against Dan Henderson, he was KO'd in embarrassing fashion at UFC 100, ignoring his corners plea to NOT move to his left and avoid the big right hand. Here, he finds himself up against another guy with a big right hand: Jorge Rivera.
Rivera is experiencing new life in the twilight of his career, having 4 of his last 5 fights, including consecutive KO's over Rob Kimmons and former title challenger Nate Quarry. He packs a punch, and will test the chin of Bisping in this fight. I stated on the podcast with Keefe the other night that this fight reminds of the Bisping-Leben matchup. Bisping will look to circle, stay on the outside and win with volume punching while trying to avoid the stalking style of a Rivera/Leben type fighter. If Rivera can dial up Bisping's chin, there's no doubt he can win this fight. But Bisping is an active fighter, and if he's able to pin down his emotions, he could have the type of game plan that can frustrate Rivera. And that's the rub: Rivera has found his inner Tito Ortiz, mocking and poking fun at Bisping, ribbing him with good humor and constantly agitating him to the point that Bisping has brought a lot of emotion and trash talking to the press conference and weigh-in. It will be interesting to see if he's able to overcome that, or if Rivera has implanted himself in Bisping's head, much to his advantage.
The third biggest fight on the card is a middleweight tilt that could have a legitimate impact on the state of the 155lb division. George Sotiropolous is on a tear, undefeated in the UFC and winner of 8 straight. He's coming off an impressive submission win over Joe Lauzon, and fighting in his home country will undoubtedly have the crowd on his side. Siver, on the other hand, has gone 6-1 since starting his UFC career 1-3. And the only loss in his last 7 fights was, in my opinion, a disputable decision loss to Ross Pearson. He's an agressive, powerful kickboxer with some of the best striking in the division. Both fighters bring excellent submission attacks into this fight, although Sotiropoulos may have the advantage on the ground. And that will most likely be a place of comfort for him; staying on the feet could lead to an unplanned nap in the center of the Octagon.
Here are the picks for the PPV portion of tomorrow night's card from Besse and Keefe at The Sports Brief:
Penn vs. Fitch
Besse: Penn via decision
Keefe: Penn via decision
Bisping vs. Rivera
Besse: Bisping via decision
Keefe: Rivera via KO in the 2nd
Sotiropoulos vs. Siver
Besse: Sotiropoulos via submission in the 2nd
Keefe: Siver via submission in the 3rd
Lytle vs. Ebersole
Besse: Lytle via (T)KO in the 2nd
Keefe: Lytle via KO in the 1st
Noke via Camozzi
Besse: Noke via (T)KO in the 3rd
Keefe: Noke via decision
So there you have it. I know my picks vary a bit from what I stated on the podcast, but that'll happen. I'm picking with my brain, not my heart. In other words, as much as I'd like to see Bisping and Sotiropoulos get KTFO'd, I don't think it's going to happen, nor would I bet on it.
Be sure to check back with The Sports Brief for a post-fight recap and see how we did with our picks. Enjoy the fights!
-Bess
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