UFC 128 predictions

UFC 128 takes place tonight, and we are facing the possibility of two entirely different outcomes and landscapes in the Light Heavyweight division. Champion Mauricio "Shogun" Rua, a guy I've deemed the ultimate badass, returns to defend his title against rising superstar Jon "Bones" Jones, who is filling in for the injured Rashad Evans.

Rua is coming off an incredible KO victory of former champion Lyoto Machida, returning from injury and dealing with an extended layoff. Jones, the up-and-coming challenger, is fresh off his impressive submission victory over Ryan Bader, and actually stands as a -230 favorite in Vegas; Rua is laying +180.

I understand why people are favoring Jones to win. They're jumping on the hype train and the kid appears to have all the tools. He's long, rangy, quick, agile, strong, has great, creative strikes and is extremely intelligent on the ground. His ground and pound is as impressive as you'll see in the sport. But in one of Dana White's video blogs from this week, Welterweight Champ Georges St. Pierre said the most important aspect of the fight would be the mental area. GSP has admitted he choked in his first title fight with Matt Hughes, a fight he lost, tapping out as time expired in the 1st round to an armbar.

The reason I found the comment so interesting is because I think this is where Rua holds a distinct advantage. He has significantly more experience and has been through the trenches. While this has not served some well, such as Big Nog, Cro Cop and Wanderlei Silva, Rua actually appears to be a fresher, stronger fighter. He's a hunter, and he'll stalk his pray and attack with a slew of power leg kicks and punches. He actually registered the most powerful strike in the Sports Science Lab. He's a scary dude, and I think he'll hold the wild card in tonight's fight. Jones is the future of the division and the sport, but this is still Rua's time. I'm going with the champion. I think Jones will come out hot, trying to put his arsenal of strikes on display. But Rua will stop him in his tracks with those remarkable leg kicks, slowing down the challenger and beginning the process. An overhand right will stun Jones and Rua will close in, overwhelming Jones as he plummets to the floor before the referee steps in to save the young fighter from further beating.

The UFC's Light Heavyweight division has gone through continuous transition over the last several years, with champions unable to defend their belt more than once. Rua will not fall into the same trap. I expect he'll defend his belt several times beyond this fight, and further, I think Jones will actually be the guy to end Shogun's reign. It just won't be tonight.

Shogun defeats Jones via (T)KO in 1st round

And here are the rest of the main card picks:

Urijah Faber defeats Eddie Wineland via decision
Jim Miller defeats Kamal Shalorus via decision
Nate Marquadt defeats Dan Miller via T(KO) in the 2nd round
Cro Cop defeats Brendan Schaub via KO in the 1st round

Enjoy the fights!

-Bess