But the show goes on!
The card can still be outstanding, as Holly Holm defending her title for the first time since her KTFO of Ronda Rousey against Meisha Tate is a great co-main event. And any event with "Mystic Mac" is must see. So let's look at some potential options to replace RDA:
Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone
An obvious choice is the man who will fight anyone, anytime. After losing his title shot to RDA at UFC on FOX 17, he moved up to 170lb to headline the UFC's card on FS1 this past Sunday night. It was a successful debut as he got rid of the other Cowboy in the 1st round via submission. After the fight, he basically called out anyone on planet Earth looking to get hurt.
Helwani is all over this one if you check out his Twitter feed, with Cerrone at 174 and already having hired Mike Dolce to help him make 155. He's a guy who will fight McGregor, whether it be on the feet or wherever it goes. It would be all action for as long as it lasts, and his ground/submission game could pose a real threat if the fight goes there. The difference here, between him and Mendes as a replacement, is he just fought (quickly) and is coming off a camp. So he's in shape and the cut isn't b/c he's out of shape, but b/c he was fighting up a weight class. He's the obvious front runner as a company man who never turns down a fight and having recently fought for the title McGregor was challenging for. I love this fight.
Eddie Alvarez
Two straight wins after a decision loss to Cerrone, with his most recent win a decision over Anthony "Showtime" Pettis. Alvarez is a bulldog, and his strength is his wrestling and grappling abilities. He used it to smother Pettis and stay away from his dynamic striking, so I would expect a similar approach should he get the call against McGregor. While I feel this is the most dangerous opponent for McGregor with respect to a potential loss, I think the UFC will consider a couple reasons NOT to give Alvarez the fight:
- He isn't in camp, so you wonder if he'll face a similar drastic weight cut like Mendes did before UFC 189 and the resulting cardio dump in the 2nd round.
- If he takes it to the mat and smothers McGregor for 3 rounds, this fight will suck. The hype train gets stopped, even with the obvious caveats, and people are pissed at the UFC and Alvarez for a boring ass fight.
Alvarez is certainly in a good position from a pedigree/resume perspective, fresh off the Pettis win and clamoring for a title shot, but I don't think it makes sense.
Nate Diaz
I'll always watch a fight that involves one of the Diaz brothers. And Nate is all-time classic. He talks shit out of the cage, in the cage, flips people off, and just scraps. He was on the same card when RDA KO'd Cerrone and left us with this, which lends even more reason to believe he's the right guy:
The only problem with Diaz is his position in the pecking order - while his #6 ranking is only one behind Cerrone, he's been up-and-down the last few years. He's 3-3 since 2012 with wins over Johnson, a zombie-like version of Grey Maynard, and Jim Miller. His most recent loss was RDA's last win before beating Pettis for the title, so I guess that qualifies as a good loss if we're looking at this from a Joe Lunardi Bracketology perspective, but I think the UFC has a harder time selling this to McGregor than they do Cerrone or even Alvarez.
Urijah Faber
He hadn't been top of mind until this happened just a few minutes ago...
I have a real hard time turning down a good time. Opportunity knocks...my door is open 👊🏽 @ufc… https://t.co/KXjNm0qqwA— Urijah Faber (@UrijahFaber) February 23, 2016
And it makes ALL the sense in the world. They coach opposite each other on The Ultimate Fighter, made for great TV in terms of talking shit back-and-forth, but also genuinely seemed to enjoy and respect each other as people and competitors. I maintain Faber is on the back-9, won't ever win the UFC title he longs for, and will ultimately serve the UFC and himself best as a "super fight without real title implications" kind of guy. Kind of where Rich Franklin ended up at the end of his career - remember, he fought Forrest, Hendo, Vitor, Wanderlei (twice), Cung Le, and Chuck.
But he's in shape, size wise presents less issues for Connor at 155, won't really threaten him with power, but the wrestling and experience could be problematic. The biggest issue is while it's a fun "super fight", it does little for McGregor's ambitions at 155 and eventually at 170 since Faber is most certainly not a true lightweight and isn't necessarily in the title picture at 135 or 145 just yet. So like Diaz, a hard sell, but man this one is really interesting and fun to think about.
Honorable Mentions
A few other names that have either been shot down or shouldn't be considered, but deserve being acknowledged for the sake of due diligence.
- Khabib Nahga...nah ga...nah gonna work here anymore - #2 lightweight behind Alvarez and his last fight was a win over RDA...TWO YEARS AGO. Injuries have kept him out and while he's scheduled to fight #4 ranked Tony Ferguson in April, his name has zero cache with casual fans and he actually would be a problem for McGregor. Makes zero business sense.
- Tony Ferguson - as noted, #4 ranked lightweight and has won 7 straight. But he's another guy who, while knocking on the door for a title shot, really needs that signature win in the lightweight division. His fight with Khabib in April is that opportunity, and the UFC is better off leaving those two alone to establish themselves as a next contender.
- Frankie Edgar - while an obvious choice, Helwani noted on Twitter he's banged up and dealing with injuries and I'd rather wait for that one at 145 after a full camp for both guys.
- Jose Aldo - another one Helwani addressed. Aldo turned it down b/c he's not in shape. Which is a bummer to hear that he's so out of shape he can't be ready to step in. What the hell do these guys do to their bodies in between fights? Makes me appreciate Mayweather even more.
That's the landscape. I think Cerrone ends up being the guy, but it'll be interesting to see how this all shapes up. Regardless, I'm watching next week. McGregor is can't miss, appointment television no matter who he's fighting.
-Big Besse
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