A sports blog for the American working man, because that's who I am, and that's who I care about.
Monday, March 15, 2010
I will not be winning any bracket pools this year
Later today I'll post some quick hits and thoughts on the brackets released last night. But please note my alma mater Northeastern will be traveling to Storrs, CT tomorrow night to take on UConn in a battle of Huskies in the first round of the NIT. The game will be shown on ESPN2 at 7pm. The Huskies (NU) are a #5 seed, while the Huskies (CT) are the #4 seed in their bracket.
-Bess
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Re-tooling my bracket and other thoughts on March Madness
The most frustrating part for me this year is that I talked myself out of some very critical picks. I did some research on Monday, then took time Tuesday to do a preliminary take on the brackets. Wednesday, I finalized my picks. Here was my thought process moving through the bracket on Tuesday.:
Georgetown sucks, but so does UMBC. Gonzaga is overrated so I like Davidson, and Curry is lights out and did I mention how much I hate Georgetown? Davidson to upset G’town!
The following day:
Ugh, I love Davidson here but it’s a safer pick to go with G’town. I’ll have them losing to USC since I hate them so much. That makes up for it, right? Alright let’s do it.
Nice. Not only did USC suck against Kansas State, but Davidson overcame a 16-point deficit to shock the Hoyas and left me wondering what could have been. Meanwhile, in the West bracket, the following occurred:
I absolutely love the depth of the Big East. Huggins is a great coach, solid experience, and Duke is the root of all evil in college hoops. I hate just looking at Coach K. Possibly the only time I root for UNC, or every college hoops team for that matter is when they play Duke. Take ‘em over Belmont but West Virginia prevails in an upset! Xavier-WVU it is!
The following day:
Ugh, I’m feeling nauseous having to make this pick. Duke is a bit streaky, and they rely on shooting, but I feel like their experience will overcome the Mountaineers here. I love the Big East but I don’t feel safe making this pick. Let’s go with Duke.
Great. Your 0 for 2, pal. You can really pick ‘em. Try your luck back in the MidWest bracket:
Alright Villanova is my upset special out of the Big East. They played G’town tough and should have won that game earlier this year. Scottie Reynolds is the man and Clemson can’t hit free throws. Keep it close then capitalize, boys!
The following day:
Ugh, Clemson is riding such a hot streak, and I feel like whoever wins this game is going to the sweet 16 to face Siena b/c Vanderbilt is over-rated and sucks. Plus I hate their home court. I should never see a Coach patrolling the sidelines on the baseline. Plus Villanova disappointed me in the Big East tourney game against G’town. I thought they’d make a run, and I was surprised they even got in. Clemson to the Sweet 16 it is!
Awesome. Make it 0 for 3. Any others? Why not! Let’s move back over to the West:
UConn is so deep and talented. AJ Price is arguably the best PG in the country and they’ve played surprisingly well. This could be the surprise team of the tourney. I like them over San Diego and they’ll smoke either Drake or Western Kentucky. Hmm…I look ahead and see a 1999 finals re-match with Duke looming in the future. Let’s make it happen. Even better, their athleticism and talent bests Duke and off to the Final Four and Championship Game we go!
The following day:
What am I thinking? Let’s not try and reinvent the wheel here. UConn will probably handle San Diego and Drake-Western Kentucky, but UCLA is legit and I like the Pac-10’s best team to the championship game. Enough with this UConn obsession.
Alright, thank god I talked myself out of that. I’m trying to tell myself that that alone justifies the rest of the non-picks I missed on. Plus I’m hearing a lot of people rode the UConn bandwagon and got burned, so I’m patting myself on the back for jumping off when I did. It was like one of those Final Destination movies where you have a dream that AJ Price gets severely injured in the first game and wake up to realize you should get off that damn plane. That’s what I sorta did here, although I left some luggage on the plane and got burned a bit leaving them in the Sweet 16. Oh well.
By the way, am I the only one that thinks the FD trilogy is one of the greatest of all time? The acting is comparable the Saw movies, the plot is consistent throughout because it works in so many ways. And the way they kill people is top-notch. My favorite is still from FD3 at the county fair when the token Asian dies after having a pole lodged through her chest. That in itself is great, but the fact that they actually had her fall to her knees and slide down the pole was award-winning.
But back to hoops, here’s a revelation from the Tourney: Rebounding has been a major factor in these games. On a hunch, I took a look at the first day of action, a sample size of 16 games. Winning teams were 15-1 in the rebounding category and 8-3 with four games dead even in the offensive rebounding category. Those against the norm here were typically out shooting their opponents by over 10% to make up for their indiscretions down low. And then there was the Xavier-Georgia game, where the Musketeers went 27 of 33 from the stripe. Georgia? They were 3 of 5. Something tells me that free-throw shooting is just as important come tourney time, which leads me to my newly constructed Sweet 16, second chance bracket:
South Region
Michigan State over Memphis
I like Tom Izzo with time to prepare. Neitzel is a great point guard who can be a real difference maker when he’s on. Just look at the Pitt game. I thought Pitt was a Final Four contender, but Michigan State is playing solid basketball and rebounding well. I like them to keep it close throughout, then tactically send Memphis to the line down the stretch. The Tigers were 46.9% from the stripe in the game against Mississippi State and legitimately could have blown it. The Spartans prevail.
Texas over Stanford
Damion James better be physical inside, or else those Lopez brothers will dictate the outcome of this game. For the record, I can’t stand everything about those two. Something about twins just really grinds my gears, unless of course you’re talking about Julius and Vincent Benedict – how could you not love those two. But maybe it’s the long hair, or the fact that their named Robin (my mother’s name) and Brook, which by the way are both names of females. Anyway, DJ Augustin and AJ Abrams will go on a tear and Texas wins. Besides, I’m not rooting for a school that turned down Jessie Spano.
West Region
UCLA over Western Kentucky
Lee and Brazelton will make this interesting, but UCLA is too athletic, too deep and too talented for this team. WKU will be outclassed and Kevin Love will continue his ascent to the top of the draft boards.
Xavier over West Virginia
I honestly don’t know who wins this game, but I’m going with Xavier because I have them in the Elite 8 and need them to win in order to keep my brackets even respectable at this point. If they lose, it’s not entirely bad, as the leader in my office pool has Duke in the Finals and the guy in 2nd place has Xavier in the Finals. I could still win because everyone is doing just as bad as me.
East Region
UNC over Washington State
WSU is an ugly team to watch, but Hansborough and the Tar Heels are peaking, having dropped a C-note in each of its first two games and demolishing inferior teams. They’re handling the opposition exactly as an upper echelon team should, and for that, I think they prevail here.
Louisville over Tennessee
Lofton may be hurt and the Cardinals are shooting at an unbelievable clip and holding opponents to less than 40% in the tournament. Volunteers haven’t looked impressive yet, and Louisville easily handled a tough Oklahoma squad. Look for Pitino & Co. to set up a showdown with UNC in the Elite 8.
MidWest Region
Kansas over Villanova
I like Kansas to win the whole thing.
Wisconsin over Davidson
As good as Curry is, Wisconsin has some athletic guards that will focus on shutting down the best player in the tournament. One man can only carry a team so far, and the clock strikes midnight here for this year’s best Cinderella story.
Elite 8
Kansas over Wisconsin
UNC over Lousiville
Texas over Michigan State
UCLA over Xavier
Final Four
Kansas over UNC
UCLA over Texas
Championship Game
Kansas over UCLA
I’ll try again next weekend after I watch these predictions fall to sh*t, too. Enjoy the games.
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Maddening through March Madness

Second is that college hoops is far better than college football bowl season because every game, excluding tonight’s Play-in game, truly means something. I don’t get off as much watching Utah and Navy duel it out in the Poinsettia Bowl as I may watching the likes of Coppin State/Mount St. Mary’s, Mississippi Valley State, Portland State and Texas-Arlington try to become the first 16-seed to knock off a 1-seed. It may not have happened yet, but at some point in the future, whether it’s Thursday, Friday or 100 years from now, a small, unknown group of collegiates will pull a modern day miracle that will eventually result in the making of a Disney movie. And chances are they’ll get trounced in their second-round game.
Now you may argue that bowl season is great because of the BCS v. non-BCS matchups that evolve and you can pick winners and win prizes much like March Madness, but let’s face it, there were only 12 bowl games I counted that I actually cared about this past year, and eight of them came on January 1st or after. From the 1st round to the Sweet-16, Elite-8, Final Four and Championship game, every game is impactful because of the tournament style of play. In boxing, the classic adage is that styles make fights, and the same can be said about sports in general. Some teams matchup better against others and that’s what makes following each and every game so exciting. This is why the BCS and college football should move to a tournament style playoff format, but that’s for another article on another day.
My last love of brackets is sifting through the copious amounts of possibilities that run through my head. There are endless possibilities, and I assume only Leah Ulrich is capable of calculating the total number of brackets you’d have to fill out in order to guarantee yourself a perfect version. This is the same woman who accused Keefe and I of cheating on a Stats test. After telling her the reason we had the exact same answers in Part B of the exam of purely coincidental (despite the fact that we sat next to each other) it was her contention that the possibility of that happening was mathematically impossible. She even went as far as to provide a statistical percentage which she had calculated. Bottom line, we were too tough a nut to crack. Sorry, Leah.
But I digress.
In lieu of filling out my official bracket, I will settle with providing you five options/theories to follow when working your way through each region:
1) The “ESPN analyst minus Bobby Knight” Theorem:
Anyone watch Selection Sunday? If so, you’d see that Jay Bilas shocked the world by putting all 1 and 2-seeds in the Elite 8. That’s real riveting stuff, Jay. Why don’t you go ahead and take the least amount of risk with your bracket because you’re afraid to take a chance on something you really believe in fearing that it won’t work out and you’ll lose all credibility. Oh wait, that’s exactly what you did, and everyone else on that panel of “experts” except for Bobby Knight, who put Louisville and Pitt in the Final Four and had Pitt winning it all. I admire Knight for doing that, and in my eyes is the only one who kept any sense of dignity when that special went off the air.

2) The “Teams you wanna root for” Theorem:
There’s nothing worse than watching the games and wanting one team you like to win. Or if it’s UNC or Duke, wanting one team to lose, badly. But what’s even worse is wanting that yet knowing that you have the team doing the exact opposite in your bracket. Yikes! This is the case for me with Notre Dame and USC, my two favorite college hoops teams. I am giving ND a pass into the Sweet 16, but UNC will be there, as well, and as much as I want the luck of the Irish to carry them to hoops glory, I’m a realist. USC, meanwhile, could be knocked out in the 1st round, but I like them enough to put them in the Elite 8, so I’m doing it because I want to root for that. So that’s theorem number 2: root for the teams you want to win all the way through so you’re never faced with the aforementioned dilemma. You can happily watch your way through the entire bracket if all your teams win, and if they lose? Well, that sucks, but at least you’re cheering for them during the games.
3) The “Cinderella” Theorem:
It’s hard not to after teams like George Mason, Valparaiso and Butler have put the Madness in March Madness. So be that guy, looking for all the possible upsets and visualizing various Cinderella teams making it to the Final Four. If you get lucky with one of them and ride ‘em to the end, you could pull out the victory if they beat everyone else’s title team earlier in the tournament.

4) The “Complete, Statistical, Number Crunching” Theorem:
You just analyzed every single team’s record, roster size, statistics and RPI numbers for the three days straight. You were probably the last person to finalize your bracket in every pool you’re taking part of. You’ve dissected every first round game for an hour apiece and thoroughly thought styles and matchups. Eventually, you determine the best possible odds/probability that UNC and Kansas will play in the dream Final Four matchup and Memphis and Duke will be lucky to make it into the Sweet 16, never mind the advancing past it. Chances are you overthought your bracket the entire time and it will have more red than green come next Monday. Good luck to you, sir.
5) The “Oh my god what is March Madness anywayyy” Theorem:
My favorite theorem, basically proven true by Bill Simmons and his incredibly under informed wife. She has outpicked him the last two years with zero breakdown and analysis of the game. I’m considering doing it in one bracket just to see how it plays out. Essentially you put yourself in the perspective of a female, knowing nothing about college hoops, or sports in general, and picking winners on the following criteria: attractive uniform colors, cute mascot/team names, picking teams from states you enjoy vacationing in, eliminating teams from states or universities where an ex-bf that cheated on you is from, hot star players or coaches whom you’ve seen or heard of only because he was on TV when your bf was generously flipping from ESPN to your LifeTime movie on commercials, or more than likely, vice versa.
Obviously treat the criteria loosely as I’m not expecting that many of your readers have had a boyfriend cheat on you; feel free to substitute with girlfriend when necessary. But try it, because chances are that Wendy from Accounts payable or Joyce at the reception desk will be taking home the prize pool of money.
Now I still haven’t released my bracket because I’m waiting on the winner of tonight’s ever-important, high impact Play-in game that could change the outlook of brackets nationwide. Hey, if Coppin State wins, I may ride them the Final Four. If not, well then I’d say North Carolina should advance to the field of 32 with ease.
But for now, below are some thoughts on top of Keefe’s that I’ve had while perusing all four regions endlessly over the past couple days.
- As Keefe pointed out, it’s disappointing that USC and Kansas State are paired up in the 1st round. I understand the excitement of showcasing two of the top freshman in the nation, but these are two teams who could arguably make a run through the tournament together. I like USC here because Tim Floyd will throw a weird D at Beasley and Mayo will take over; plus K-State has been sliding as of late.
- The winner of the aforementioned freshman showcase most likely faces Wisconsin, another bummer. The Badgers are deep and loaded with Brian Butch as the big man leading the way. But again, I like USC to make a run here, they’re battle tested and could go deep.
- Clemson-Villanova is the second 1st round matchup I hate. ‘Nova could be a surprising but I also like how well Clemson has played as of late. Unfortunately, one will be gone early.
- Tyler Hansborough could face three straight opponents with top notch big men in Indiana (DJ White), Notre Dame (Luke Harangody) and Louisville (David Padgett). If he leads UNC through that murderer’s row, then I may finally warm up to the kid.
- Along those lines, UNC faces the toughest route to title town. UCLA has the easiest. Memphis will be the first 1-seed to fall.
- Get off the bandwagon all you Georgia fans. They will lose in the 1st round to Xavier, which is poised to make a run to the Sweet 16. I have them eventually losing to West Virginia (sorry, Rich), who will take out Duke to punch their ticket to the Elite 8 against UCLA.
My upset special is Davidson, twice in a row.
- Look for Stephen Curry & Co. to clean out Gonzaga, who comes in with less fanfare than ever this year. Then it’s on to Georgetown, who I have found to be overrated all season long. They have gotten zero production off the bench and if Davidson can prevent them from getting off 3’s, they could make it 24 consecutive wins.
I’ll have my finalized bracket picks in tomorrow. Hope you enjoyed this for now.