Why BJ Penn will beat GSP

This Saturday's UFC 94 main event between welterweight champion Georges "Rush" St. Pierre and lightweight champion BJ Penn is one of the greatest matchups in the history of combat sports. You're got two of the best pound-4-pound fighters in their prime, combined with their history (a split decision victory for St. Pierre at UFC 58) and the bad blood that has developed between these two since that fight, particularly through the latest TV series UFC PrimeTime.

Leading up to the fight, many critics, fans and pundits alike have tried their best to break down the fight. They discuss Penn's jab and heavy hands, but St. Pierre's versatile striking arsenal. Or Penn's superior flexibility and jiu-jitsu and St. Pierre's world-class wrestling. Penn's questionable cardio against St. Pierre's bottomless gas tank. Or even the fact that Penn is moving up from lightweight while St. Pierre will undoubtedly be cutting 15-20 lbs. this week just to make 170. There will be a considerable size advantage, but will it matter? Each fighter will walk into the cage on Saturday night with considerable advantages in different disciplines and areas of the fight game.

But one aspect that may have been overlooked, or perhaps not given enough attention is the mental aspect of this fight. Penn has referred to GSP as a mental midget, a bully and a quitter. And while GSP can say all he wants to refute that, and people can point to his impressive resume of victories over the likes of Penn, Matt Hughes (2), Jon Fitch, Josh Koscheck, Matt Serra, Sean Sherk, Frank Trigg, Jason "Mayhem" Miller, Dave Strasser, Karo Parysian, and Jay Hieron, I'm here to point out a noticeable trend in St. Pierre's fights.

I've been watching MMA and UFC for several years now. My first exposure was TUF Season 1, and my first live fight on TV was the classic TUF finale between Stephan Bonnar. I've been hooked ever since and made it a priority to catch every Fight Night, PPV and TUF episode possible in one way or another. So I've seen each and every one of GSP's fights as far back as his destruction of Jay Hieron at UFC 48 in 2004. If you haven't seen that, it's a beauty, reminiscent of Houston Alexander's massacre over Keith Jardine.



The problem with St. Pierre's resume is that all of his fights have, for the most part, been one-sided. His two victories over Hughes and his wins over Fitch, Serra, Koscheck, Trigg, Hieron, Strasser and Sherk were complete dominations in favor of GSP. He controlled the fights from the outset, imposing his will and at no point in any of these fights was he in any bit of trouble. GSP was essentially on cruise control, faced little to no adversity and was able to execute his gameplan en route to a finish or lopsided decision victory. Whether the fight ended via stoppage or went to the judge's scorecards, the fans were left with no doubt from the start of the fight to the end as to who the victor would be.

However, it's important to closely examine those "other" fights. His decision victory over Karo Parysian was said to be closely contested, but I'm tossing that out the window due to the fact that it was five years ago to the date tomorrow. Interestingly enough, five years after his UFC debut, GSP will be competing in perhaps the greatest mega-fight in UFC history. Parysian, meanwhile, is fighting on the undercard against a guy nicknamed "Stun Gun", and reports from mmamania.com indicate the UFC is concerned Parysian may pull out at the last minute. This is after Karo withdrew from UFC 88 hours before the fight due to panic attacks after being KO'd by Thiago Alves in his last fight.

So moving past that early fight in his career we start to see the trend unfold. The loss to Hughes in their first tilt is perhaps the first and most exemplary sign of St. Pierre's weak mental state. Admittedly he was nervous leading up to the fight, which is understandable considering it was his first title fight, only his 8th professional bout, and he was fighting a legend of the sport. GSP could not look Hughes in the eyes during the stare down, but incredibly he dominated the first round. His striking and takedown defense were remarkable, and the highlight of the round was a spinning back kick which caught Hughes and visibly locked up his stomach and chest muscles, knocking the wind out of the opponent and momentarily putting him in trouble. But at the end of the round, Hughes scored a takedown and while trying to impose his legendary ground and pound attack, latched onto an arm from the top, swung his left leg around GSP's head and fell off to the right, locking in an arm bar. St. Pierre instantly tapped, not even attempting to fight off the submission, roll out of it or hold on until the end of the round. And sadly, just as Big John McCarthy stepped in, the horn went off signaling the end of the round. But the stoppage had been declared, and St. Pierre was left to wonder what could have been. He gave up at the first sign of trouble, plain and simple.

Then there was the first fight with Penn. St. Pierre's face was bloodied and bludgeoned by a fighter who was a natural 155, smaller fighter who had a history of fighting bigger opponents and not only holding his own, but holding his own. The guy has a decision loss to Lyoto Machida...remarkable especially with where Machida currently ranks in the light heavyweight division. The second round was more closely contested, with Penn continuing to land strikes, but St. Pierre scoring takedowns and trying to work some ground and pound from Penn's guard. It was competitive and close, and was undoubtedly the swing round in the bout. The third round most likely belonged to St. Pierre, as Penn's gas tank went on empty and shifted the momentum into the Canadien's corner. Many question whether the result would have differed if Penn came into the fight with better cardio. Even so, many including myself argued that Penn did enough early to earn the split decision. But alas, the victory went to St. Pierre although he was immediately ushered to the hospital for overnight observation.

Against Matt Serra, St. Pierre was heavily favored. Serra actually came into the fight as a +800 underdog in Vegas. He was an improbably title challenger, perhaps an undeserving one after claiming the TUF Season 4 welterweight crown via split decision victory over Chris Lytle, a fight that left many in the audience underwhelmed by the action. Serra was certainly a veteran of the sport, a solid resume with fights against Shonie Carter, Din Thomas, BJ Penn and Karo Parysian. But he'd lost all four, and the promotion by Dana White to have the TUF 4 winner fight for a title was undoubtedly an effort to reinvigorate the TUF brand. And in the first round, both fighters exchanged pleasantries in the form of strikes on their feet. A couple minutes in, however, Serra caught St. Pierre with an overhand right that put the champion on queer street. Smelling blood, Serra moved in for the kill, landing bombs almost at will and staggering GSP into the cage, onto the mat and across the octagon. Finally Serra landed a blow that put the champ on his back and into a corner, and a flurry of strikes prompted Big John to step in. But tape revealed that prior to the referee stoppage, St. Pierre was actually tapping out. The strikes were overwhelming him, and he was asking for help. He wanted to be saved from taking any further punishment. Again, he quit in the Octagon in the face of adversity.

Given his history, I can't help but believe Penn will hold a considerable mental and psychological advantage heading into Saturday's fight. Dana White mentioned in his video blog that during the staredown at the press conference, Penn kept telling GSP, "You cut too much weight Georges...you cut too much." He's getting in St. Pierre's head and making him question everything, from his training to his ability to his mental state heading into the fight.

The bottom line is that Penn is right: St. Pierre is a bully. He is able to dominate and walk through most opponents with ease. His superior athleticism, cardio and strength combined with his arsenal of strikes, wrestling and submission skills make him a tall task for anyone. But many opponents have allowed him to impose his will, and once St. Pierre has taken control of a fight, he's been allowed to maintain control and blitz through fighters with ease. Yet as Penn has said, all it takes is for someone to stand up to the bully and challenge him. For years that bully stole money from kids in the lunch line every day, until that one time some unknown stepped out of the line and punched him flush in the nose and put an end to the robbery from that day forth.

Well that unknown is Penn. He will challenge St. Pierre and keep pushing forward, giving the welterweight champion all he can handle. Saturday's fight will prove one of two things: a) Penn is right and St. Pierre will fold under the pressure or b) St. Pierre has evolved and matured and will outlast the lightweight champion. Thus, I see this fight ending one of two ways. Either Penn by stoppage or St. Pierre by decision. But ultimately I think Penn will live up to his word and take on the bully and stop him. As great a fighter as St. Pierre is, Penn is just as great and has the mental fortitude to press forward and pressure his adversary to the tipping point. And on Saturday night, there will be two differences from their first fight. A recommitted fighter in Penn will have the gas to last longer and this time around, he won't need the judges to earn the victory. Penn will become the first fighter to simultaneously hold titles in two weight classes with a 3rd round stoppage over GSP.

-Bess

And the best MMA heavyweight in the world is...

According to this video, Fedor still reigns supreme. This is absolute gold, whoever put this together. Check out the gut on Mir. As funny as it is though, you still have to wonder how someone has this much time on their hands...but bravo. And great ending.


Brock Lesnar VS Frank Mir at UFC 81 - Watch more Free Videos

-Bess

The Sports Brief's MMA rankings 11.19.08

Heavyweight:

1. Fedor Emelianenko
2. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
3. Brock Lesnar
4. Andrei Arlovski
5. Josh Barnett
6. Randy Couture
7. Tim Sylvia
8. Alistair Overeem
9. Frank Mir
10. Gabriel Gonzaga

Honorable mention: Shane Carwin, Ben Rothwell, Fabricio Werdum, Heath Herring, Chiek Kongo, Aleksander Emelianenko, Mirko Cro Cop, Junior Dos Santos

What an impressive performance by Lesnar at UFC 91. At this point, you have to think that guys like Fedor, Nog and Mir have the best chance to take him down with their ability to win a fight off their back. Gonzaga had a solid showing, as well, and with his size, grappling and jiu-jitsu technique, perhaps he’s on his way to another title challenge. Shane Carwin is a sleeper, as well. His striking may be more ferocious than Lesnar, but his wrestling, while credible, is not up to par. It’ll be interesting to see how the UFC develops him as a potential star. Nonetheless, the Fedor-Arlovski fight on the Affliction card should be a blockbuster.

Light Heavyweight:

1. Forrest Griffin
2. Quinton Jackson
3. Lyoto Machida
4. Wanderlei Silva
5. Rashad Evans
6. Maurcio ‘Shogun’ Rua
7. Chuck Liddell
8. Thiago Silva
9. Keith Jardine
10. Babalu Sobral

Honorable mention: Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Tito Ortiz, Vladimir Matyushenko, Brandon Vera, Luis Cane

Pretty cool that UFC 92 will feature four of The Sports Brief’s top-5 light heavyweights in the world on the same card. Machida and Silva will finally touch gloves at UFC 94, with the winner potentially looking at a title shot in the near future. Shogun returns at UFC 93 against Mark Coleman, and there are rumblings about a Chuck Liddell-Anderson Silva fight headlining UFC 95 in London, England. A lot of activity in this division in the coming months as the top fighters are competing against each other. It’ll be interesting to see how the division shakes out once the dust has settled.

Middleweight:

1. Anderson Silva
2. Matt Lindland
3. Dan Henderson
4. Rich Franklin
5. Robbie Lawler
6. Cung Le
7. Yushin Okami
8. Gegard Mousasi
9. Michael Bisping
10. Nathan Marquardt

Honorable mention: Denis Kang, Cael Sonnen, Paulo Filho, Frank Trigg, Patrick Cote, Frank Shamrock, Kazuo Misaki, Yoshihiro Akiyama, Thales Leites, Demian Maia, Chris Leben, Ricardo Almeida, Ronaldo Souza

The Anderson Silva-Patrick Cote was disappointing in how it ended, but I don’t feel Silva should have caught that much flack. I interpreted his performance as slow and methodical, picking apart his opponent in Roy Jones like fashion (his idol, by the way). While it was unfortunate to see Cote injure his knee to end the fight, there’s no doubt he was on his way to a loss. Perhaps the most unfortunate part of all this is that he almost deserves a rematch because of the premature ending, something that I certainly don’t want to see.
But the division is becoming more and more interesting. Lawler could potentially come over after EliteXC closed up shop, and Denis Kang has just been added to the mix fresh off a devastating knockout over “The man formerly known as the Beastman” Marvin Eastman.



Bisping and Maia seem in line for a contender clash, as well. Meanwhile, Henderson and Franklin will mix it up at 205. What does that do for anyone? Okami returns soon and will most likely be granted the next crack at Silva, but I don’t see him winning that fight if he even gets it. And with the WEC folding, Cael Sonnen is now a name to be discussed. His win over Filho, however, is tainted due to Filho showing up fat and disinterested.

Anyone see Mousasi kick the snot out of Ronaldo Souza? Look out for this guy. I’d be interested to see who he fights next.



Welterweight:

1. Georges St. Pierre
2. Jon Fitch
3. Jake Shields
4. Thiago Alves
5. Josh Koscheck
6. Diego Sanchez
t-7. Matt Hughes
t-7. Matt Serra
9. Karo Parisyan
10. Carlos Condit

Honorable mention: Nick Thompson, Mike Swick, Marcus Davis, Drew Fickett, Jay Hieron

This weight class has been fairly inactive as of late aside from Thiago Alves destroying Josh Koscheck. But I’ll tell you this: I became a huge Koscheck fan because of that fight. He took the fight on two weeks notice, took all that punishment but continued to come forward and scored some notable points against Alves. He had his moments and even appeared to hurt Alves at one point. And despite that convincing loss he’s still headlining the Dec. 10 Fight Night against Yoshida. The St. Pierre-Penn fight is still a couple months away, and this division will continue to be fairly quiet for a while. Hopefully Jake Shields signs with the UFC. He’s a legitimate threat to anyone in this division, especially the titleholder.

Lightweight:

1. BJ Penn
2. Eddie Alvarez
3. Joachim Hansen
4. Shinya Aoki
5. JZ Cavalcante
6. Takanori Gomi
7. Josh Thomson
8. Tatsuya Kawajiri
9. Sean Sherk
10. Kenny Florian

Honorable mention: Gilbert Melendez, KJ Noons, Nick Diaz, Victor Ribero, Joe Stevenson, Roger Huerta, Frankie Edgar

What an effort by Kenny Florian, and kudos to him for calling out BJ Penn. There’s no one left in the division for him to fight right now, not even Sean Sherk (at least not at the moment). The only unfortunate thing is that is will still be a long time before a fight with Penn happens, considering he is not fighting GSP until Super Bowl weekend.

Meanwhile, overseas where most of the lightweight talent is these guys all appear heading towards the K-1 New Years Eve event, where Hansen and Calvalcante are already scheduled to fight. Alvarez was supposed to fight Diaz on the Nov. 8 ShoXC event, but that was obviously scrapped. That would have been one hell of a fight. Suprisingly, Gomi lost a split decision to Johnny No Name last week, but we’ll chalk that up to a bad night. He’s still one of the best of the world.

Pound 4 Pound :

1. Anderson Silva
2. Fedor Emelianenko
3. Georges St. Pierre
4. BJ Penn
5. Miguel Torres
6. Forrest Griffin
7. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
8. Mike Brown
9. Quinton Jackson
10. Brock Lesnar

Lesnar creeps in with his impressive performance over Couture, and honestly, the sky is the limit for this guy. Don’t be surprised if he makes his way up this chart over the next year. Meanwhile, let’s all welcome unheralded Mike Brown to the mix, as he pops in at number 8 on the list. His impressive destruction of former WEC featherweight champ and pound for pound elitist Urijah Faber was shocking to some, but somewhat expected by others. He was bigger, stronger and more powerful than the former champ, and up until he caught Faber with that short right, he had been dominating and controlling the fight. I interpreted Faber’s ridiculous spinning back elbow as a somewhat desperate move, a sign that he realized it would take something spectacular and unordinary to chop down Brown.

Well there you have it. Let us know what you think and if we missed any fighters that you feel should be mentioned here. Chances are we may have, but for the most part we think we’ve accounted for the best in the world here.

-Bess