The Sports Brief's Week 15 NFL picks

So Keefe and I are involved in a league on NFL.com which we’ve been affiliated with for several years now; it dates all the way back to our teenage years at St. Paul’s. So three years ago I took down the championship before losing to Keefe’s dad in the finals the following year. It was all good, my name was first on the plaque and after losing to Pocket Hercules, I drove up to NH and we had a ceremony in which I handed off the plaque to the new king of our FFL. It was like Tiger Woods helping Lefty get his new green jacket on. The whole thing was moving, really. But last year, a dark cloud was cast over our league. Woody came out victorious and everyone was left with a bitter taste in our mouths. The only got worse when Keefe and I joined a Fantasy Baseball League with him and his friends on ESPN. Neither of us realized it was rotisserie style, and after a month we realized we were playing it the wrong way. Woody, meanwhile, shot out to an insurmountable lead and never looked back. It was our goal to dethrone him in football this fall.

Last week, Keefe won his final regular season match, as did Sharkey, meaning Sharkey took down the division and Keefe edged Woody for wildcard spot via points. It was truly a glorious day. Even more exciting is the fact that I take on Shark and Keefe takes on Vaughn, setting up a potential Sports Brief blockbuster in the finale. And tonight’s game will have major implications. I have Brees starting at QB, Bush at RB and Greg Olsen at TE. I’m leaving Pierre Thomas on the bench tonight b/c I believe the Saints will pass the ball and utilize Bush out of the backfield and in the slot. Meanwhile, I have Bush going on two other playoff teams, as well as Colston in two other leagues, one of which is a playoff team. What makes the situation a little sticky is that I have Lance Moore going for my ESPN league team (which is in the championship against my cousin Matt, nonetheless). That’s one of the teams Bush is also on. However, Sharkey has Moore going in our NFL.com league. It’s ugly. I guess that’s what I get for having six fantasy football league teams this year. I’m thinking of cutting it down to four next year, but we’ll see. It’s made the weekends quite dramatic over the last several months.

Oh and Vaughn has Forte going tonight. So here’s to hoping Forte gets shut down, Brees lights it up with Bush and Colston, Moore doesn’t have many receptions but has a modest evening, Olsen has a TD receptions and Forte takes the night off.

Seems pretty simple, right?

Anyways, if you didn’t check out the UFC Fight for the Troops card on SpikeTV last night, you may have missed what was arguably the most action packed, exciting card in UFC history. Four of the five main televised bouts were absolutely brutal stoppages, while the one decision was awarded fight of the night honors and giving an extra $30K to each participant. Ridiculous. I e-mailed my buddy Scotty this morning and said the following:

“Of the following fights, let me know the order in which you’d like to view the corresponding videos…”
a) Knockout of the Year and arguably one of the most brutal, if not THE most brutal KO in UFC history
b) A vicious right hook followed by an absolute flurry of punches ultimately putting a man to sleep
c) An arm being snapped and bent backwards
d) One of the most ferocious and overwhelming attacks via Muay Thai clinch that Joe Rogan claimed was more impressive than Anderson Silva over Rich Franklin

Scotty chose C, B, D, A and that’s how I’ll give them to you here. There’s a bonus video of Corey Hill at the end that wasn’t televised last night. And for good reason. It’s a clip that will live in infamy.









And finally, the Corey Hill video…



In closing, I had one of the most incredible realizations yesterday. Please spell out the name of the object show below:

If you’re like me, you didn’t realize that it’s actually wheelbarrow and not wheel barrel. What I struggled with the most was that I feel like I knew this, but every time I went to say it yesterday it sounded like wheel barrel. For some reason I can’t get myself to pronounce it properly. What the hell is the barrow, anyway? Ridiculous. I can’t believe Merriam and Webster screwed this up.

Onto the picks…

Keefe’s Picks:

Last week 9-7; overall: 104-104

Saints +2.5 over Bears
Buccaneers +2.5 over Falcons
Redskins -6.5 over Bengals
Colts -16.5 over Lions
Chargers -5.5 over Chiefs
Packers -1.5 over Jaguars
Texans +3.5 over Titans
Seahawks -3.5 over Rams
Dolphins -6.5 over 49ers
Jets -7.5 over Bills
Vikings +3.5 over Cardinals
Panthers -7.5 over Broncos
Ravens -1.5 over Steelers
Patriots -7.5 over Raiders
Giants +2.5 over Cowboys
Browns +14.5 over Eagles

Besse’s Picks:

Last week 12-4; overall: 117-91

Saints +2.5 over Bears
Falcons -2.5 over Buccaneers
Redskins -6.5 over Bengals
Colts -16.5 over Lions
Chargers -5.5 over Chiefs
Packers -1.5 over Jaguars
Texans +3.5 over Titans
Seahawks -3.5 over Rams
Dolphins -6.5 over 49ers
Jets -7.5 over Bills
Cardinals -3.5 over Vikings
Panthers -7.5 over Broncos
Steelers +1.5 over Ravens
Patriots -7.5 over Raiders
Cowboys -2.5 over Giants
Browns +14.5 over Eagles

Random Rob’s Picks:

Last week 8-8; overall: 116-92

Bears -2.5 over Saints
Buccaneers +2.5 over Falcons
Redskins -6.5 over Bengals
Lions +16.5 over Colts
Chargers -5.5 over Chiefs
Jaguars +1.5 over Packers
Texans +3.5 over Titans
Rams +3.5 over Seahawks
49ers +6.5 over Dolphins
Bills +7.5 over Jets
Cardinals -3.5 over Vikings
Panthers -7.5 over Broncos
Steelers +1.5 over Ravens
Patriots -7.5 over Raiders
Cowboys -2.5 over Giants
Eagles -14.5 over Browns

Enjoy the weekend.

-Bess

The Sports Brief's Week 9 NFL picks

Trick or treat from The Brief.

Last week was somewhat of a recovery for The Brief, although Rich was still below .500 with his picks at 6-8. Random Rob rebounded from a tough week 7 to once again take the crown. I'm waiting for Rob to hit the proverbial wall in his rookie season. This is getting downright ridiculous.

Speaking of ridiculous, how about Danyelle Sargent as a sports reporter? In case you're not familiar with Sargent or her work, here's a snipet from a couple years ago when she was working for ESPN. Talk about a brutal opening to the show. Sargent vented her frustration to the producers in the back, but didn't realize she was sharing it with the millions watching at home. It's now classic YouTube material:



Anyway, Sargent was at it again last weekend as she is now working as a sideline reporter for FOX. Before the 49ers and Seahawks game, Sargent pulled aside Mike Singletary for a pre-game interview, the significance being that it was the first time Singletary was leading the troops onto the field as the head coach since Mike Shula got canned. The interview started a little something like this:

"I heard that your mentor Bill Walsh was one of the first phone calls that you made when you found out that you had the job. What does it mean to you to be the head coach of the 49ers?"

Singletary was caught off-guard, understably so since Walsh died in July 2007 and Singletary actually played for the Bears. If anyone was his mentor, it was Mike Ditka. Apparently producers were screaming wildly in Sargent's ear, because she stopped the interview saying, "I'm sorry. Oh. I'm sorry. What, what did I, what was wrong?" Did she do any preparation for this interview? Or did she simply rely on football knowledge she clearly didn't possess? Regardless, what an idiot. The video of the interview was available on the internet earlier this week but has since been taken down. Nonetheless, she's been taking a lot of heat for it. Could this have been the beginning of the end for Singletary, leading to that solid post-game press conference meltdown?



Another solid YouTube clip from this past week's football action. Gotta feel bad for this kid. What the hell are these carts doing in the back of the end zone? Going all out to make a catch and this is how he's rewarded. As much as I want to fault the QB for making such a terrible throw, the WR had to realize at some point that the ball was clearly way out of the back of the end zone. It wasn't even close. I won't put this on the same level as Dan Orlovsky bad, but jesus, this is bad. So in the resulting injury. If you couldn't handle Willis Mcgahee, Napoleon Kaufman or even Alvin Mack getting his leg stretched another foot and a half in the program, this video isn't for you.



Here's McGahee's injury at Miami in the National Championship game:



And different sport here, but you gotta love a little Sid Vicious:



Alright, onto this week's picks...

Keefe’s picks:

Last week: 6-8; Overall: 54-62

Bills -5.5 over Jets
Bears -12.5 over Lions
Bengals +7.5 over Jaguars
Browns -1.5 over Ravens
Cardinals -2.5 over Rams
Texans +4.5 over Vikings
Titans -6.5 over Packers
Buccaneers -8.5 over Chiefs
Dolphins +3.5 over Broncos
Cowboys +7.5 over Giants
Eagles -6.5 over Seahawks
Falcons -2.5 over Raiders
Patriots +5.5 over Colts
Redskins -2.5 over Steelers

Besse’s picks:

Last week: 7-7; Overall: 60-56

Bills -5.5 over Jets
Bears -12.5 over Lions
Bengals +7.5 over Jaguars
Browns -1.5 over Ravens
Cardinals -2.5 over Rams
Texans +4.5 over Vikings
Packers +6.5 over Titans
Chief +8.5 over Bucs
Dolphins +3.5 over Broncos
Cowboys +7.5 over Giants
Eagles -6.5 over Seahawks
Falcons -2.5 over Raiders
Patriots +5.5 over Colts
Redskins -2.5 over Steelers

Random Rob:

Last week: 9-5; Overall: 67-49

Bills -5.5 over Jets
Lions +12.5 over Bears
Bengals +7.5 over Jaguars
Ravens +1.5 over Browns
Rams +2.5 over Cardinals
Vikings -4.5 over Texans
Packers +6.5 over Titans
Buccaneers -8.5 over Chiefs
Dolphins +3.5 over Broncos
Cowboys +7.5 over Giants
Seahawks +6.5 over Eagles
Raiders +2.5 over Falcons
Colts -5.5 over Patriots
Steelers +2.5 over Redskins

-Bess

Red Sox will be okay with Ortiz on DL

Boston fans, calm down. Your beloved Red Sox are going to be just fine. The loss of David Ortiz is as debilitating as possible in terms of affecting a lineup, don’t get me wrong. But let’s face it: at this point, it may not even matter.

The Sox are hitting .283 as a club, which is 2nd only to the Cubs in all of MLB and best in the AL. Rather impressive, especially considering that Ortiz is in the midst of his worst offensive season since joining Boston in 2003. He’s on pace to match his HR and RBI totals of last year, which were easily the lowest since that first year in ’03. Yet his overall power is down, on pace for only 27 doubles and currently batting just .252. While you can argue that he got hot in May, batting .318 and raising his average from .198 after April, it’s been the contributions from the rest of the lineup that have been significant.

Take Kevin Youkilis for example, who has slugged nine homeruns and 35 RBI’s while batting .305. Or Manny Ramirez, who has 12 bombs, 39 RBI and a .296 average after hitting career homerun 501 last night. There’s Mike Lowell, last year’s World Series MVP and perhaps regular season team MVP who has returned from a wrist injury. Since coming off the DL, the third baseman has hit .305 with seven homeruns and 25 RBI in 34 games. And Jacoby Ellsbury has been electrifying, batting .287 out of the leadoff spot, stealing 27 bases in 30 attempts and contributing 12 extra base hits, as well. Long story short, the Sox has five starters hitting over .285 (Youkilis, Ramirez, Drew, Ellsbury and Lowell) with two others batting .279 (Pedroia and Lugo).

And while the loss of Ortiz will certainly put more strain, pressure and importance on the at bats from these guys, I don’t see them slipping with Big Papi in the dumps. Not to say Boston is better without Ortiz by any means, but I think the team’s improvement in other areas will, to a certain degree, counteract the significant loss in power and balance things out.

Ramirez should move to the DH role, opening up a spot in left. Ellsbury could easily shift to left while Coco Crisp moves back into center. I think this is the best option, as Crisp was incredible defensively last year and should have won a Gold Glove over Torii Hunter, who has essentially been grandfathered in as the perennial Gold Glove CF. And while the team gets a little thin with the OF corps, Jeff Bailey is a big right-handed bat currently with the club, while Brandon Moss could see a call-up if necessary. I’d actually like to see it. He’s hitting .405 over his last 10 games in Pawtucket, and had a three-homer game last week. Jed Lowrie is another guy Theo could call on to fill in as a reserve in case the team’s resident patient, JD Drew, goes down with another case of vertigo or a yeast infection.

Regardless of whom they bring in, if anyone, to fill that need, the Red Sox are going to see a significant boost in speed. Having Crisp, Lugo and Ellsbury in the same lineup night in and night out will give opposing batteries migraines, and I expect to see a variation of small to come from Terry Francona’s club. Crisp only has seven swipes on the season so far, but that should skyrocket over the next couple weeks because he’ll be playing every day as opposed to catching the short end of a platoon situation. The Sox have never done much in terms of bunting over runners and I don’t expect that to happen now either. But with a lineup that is consistently making contact throughout, we’ll see more hit-and-runs, stolen bases, runners moving over on balls the other way, etc. With the speed on the base paths, balls in the gap will easily score runs and if guys like Crisp, Ellsbury and Lugo can force a throw to the plate, help move the hitter up an extra base, as well.

As I said, I don’t think the team is better off without Ortiz, nor do I think it’ll change its approach. But I do think we’ll see more speed, better defensive play, and continued success until Ortiz returns.

Much like the depth in pitching, Boston has a “problem” in that it has significant depth with hitters. And much like Masterson and Colon have answered the call with injuries to Clay Bucholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka, I think the hitters in that clubhouse, collectively, will find a way to do the same in the absence of Ortiz.

Another reason the Sox should be fine without Ortiz is the aforementioned depth at pitching. Josh Beckett is slowly returning to form, while Jon Lester has been much improved over the past month, especially with his no-hitter against the Royals. Despite Dice-K and Bucholz both being on the shelf, Colon and Masterson are certainly contributing beyond expectations, and Tim Wakefield has been his steady self. It’s not exactly a murderer’s row of starting pitchers, but all are serviceable and capable of contributing six strong innings. The question will be if the bullpen can hold a lead or stop a threat and get the ball to Papelbon. Manny Delcarmen, Craig Hansen and David Aardsma have all throw well over their last few outings, and with Okajima struggling, each will need to continue this recent run of success if the Sox will be able to stay afloat.

While the Rays will be a tough test at Fenway the next three games, the Sox then move to Seattle and Baltimore. At home, they should easily take 2 of 3 in both. Then it’s on to interleague play and series at both Cincinnati and Philadelphia. Because they’re in NL parks, Ortiz effectiveness here would have decreased anyway with there not being a DH. By then, we should have a clear perspective on the health of his wrist and a more definitive timetable, as well. Papi’s bat will certainly be welcome by the end of the month, when the Red Sox embark on a string of games against St. Louis, Arizona, Houston, Tampa Bay and New York.

So let’s give him his time to rest on the 15-day DL before jumping off the Tobin, because depth and scheduling are playing into the Sox favor right now.
-Bess

Sox in '08 trying to avoid another '06

Fresh off the team’s second World Series title in the last four years, I implore Sox fans not to forget 2006. Need I remind you it was only two years ago that Boston failed to make the post-season, winning only 86 games and finishing 3rd, yes 3rd in the American League East. While the team’s batting average was about ten points lower in ’06 than last year’s title team, the 2006 club swatted 26 more homeruns paced by David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, who combined for almost 100 bombs between them. The problem wasn’t hitting. Many teams, particularly this century, have won titles without prodigious lineups, i.e. the Angels (2002) and Marlins (2003) are the most obvious examples; the Cardinals (2006) didn’t even win 90 games but were the beneficiaries of a weak NL Central division.

The problem that season for the Sox was its pitching. During the offseason, the Sox traded Hanley Ramirez and no-hit pitcher Anibel Sanchez to the Marlins (along with others) for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell, the proverbial throw-in. The team countered that move by trading Bronson Arroyo to the Reds for Wily Mo Pena and a bag of Ken Griffey, Jr. autographed baseballs. At the time, the trade was lauded due to the depth of pitching in the Sox clubhouse and the need for a big bat off the bench. But karma exists, and it came out in droves once Opening Day rolled around.

The starting rotation of Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield, ’05 All-Star Matt Clement and crafty veteran David Wells was formidable. Jon Lester and Jonathan Papelbon were young stars on the rise, with the latter taking over closer duties when Keith Foulke pulled a “Way Back” Wasdin. But Wakefield, Clement and Wells all went down. Lester raced out to a 7-2 start to his career but was later diagnosed with cancer. Jason Johnson, Kyle Snyder, Lenny Dinardo and Kason Gabbard were called in to hold down the fort and at that point you’ll find more talent down in Southie at a Yawkey League game.

Which brings us to 2008. The Sox didn’t bite on the Johan Santana deal, opting to stick with the young talent in Clay Bucholz and Jon Lester that provided The Nation with a no-hitter and Game 4 of the World Series back in ‘07. The team had six options already and the Santana deal would have cut it to five and depleted a wealth of young talent at the same time. Essentially, they were facing the same problem as 2006: too many pitchers, too much depth. I know a little about a lot of a things, and one of those things is that you can NEVER have too much starting pitching. So for the Red Sox, it was the move they didn’t make that was the team’s best off-season move.

After Schilling went down, that depth became all the more important and Theo reacted by taking a flyer on Bartolo Colon, which I wrote about earlier. But the Beckett injury is the most concerning. This is a muscle issue in his back, not a broken bone or a tired arm. Which begs the question: after last season, did he do anything except BBQ, drink beer and hunt? Instead of squatting down to light the fire or camp out underneath an oak tree, maybe he should have had a couple hundred pounds on his back getting ready for the season. A bona fide ace just went down, and with some disconcerting efforts in Spring Training thus far, that deep staff is could suddenly be looking barren again.

Daisuke Matsuzaka is still a number three in my eyes. Until he finds the strike zone with two pitches (never mind three) on a consistent basis, he won’t be effective against another team’s number 1 or 2 pitcher. Wakefield is a crapshoot. Roll the dice, because odds are he’ll go down at some point. And with two youngsters who are still trying to find an identity at the major league level, that Colon signing suddenly becomes more important and critical than originally thought. The Sox are going to need him to return to old form quickly whether they like it or not. I know Theo and his team of doctors had this glorified throwing program mapped out, but it’s time to toss that out the window. If he can’t at least develop into a number 3 or 4 by Opening Day, the Yankees and Blue Jays could return the favor from April and May of last year.

The bottom line is this: While it’s arguable as to whether Theo did the right thing by balking on the Santana deal or not, you can’t predict injuries. With this flurry of injury and mediocrity hitting the Sox since camp opened, it looks pretty good right now. Had it been made, you may be looking at a rotation of Santana, Matsusaka, Wakefield, Snyder and Colon with Beckett on the DL. Drop Beckett in at the top of that rotation and that’s arguable the best in the game, right? Sure, but regardless of Beckett’s impending health issuess, you’re stuck with a barren coffer of eligible starters thereafter. As in that ’06 core of Johnson, Dinardo…well you get the point.

Instead, the team will go in with more youth and obviously more question marks. But if Beckett, Colon and down the road even Schilling return (although that’s a stretch), the possibility of more depth will benefit this club upon entering that critical stretch in August and September. With Papelbon, Okajima, Delcarmen, a rejuvenated Mike Timlin and Snyder holding court in that bullpen, it will be important for the starters to give the Sox five or six solid innings, keeping the team within striking distance before handing it over for its shutdown bullpen. If that can happen, this thing will turn into a classic horse race, with the Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays all staying close until Tito finally cracks the whip coming down the home stretch and pulls it out in the nick of time. If not, the Sox horse will stumble out of the gate and never recover, finishing a distant 3rd in the East and Wild Card races.

-Bess

C’s adjusting w/o KG; can they adjust upon his return?

For the first 41 games of the 2007-08 NBA season, the Boston Celtics were playing a defensive-minded, possession style basketball that led them to a 34-7 start. Through those first 41 games, they had allowed only 88 ppg, best in the NBA. While the offense was wavering in the teens as far as NBA ranking with a 99 ppg clip, it didn’t matter because opponents couldn’t score in a peach basket the size of a hot tub.

But that was all with “The Big Ticket” in the house, cluttering up the paint alongside Kendrick Perkins and forcing teams to find creative ways to score. It was a system that was working for Doc Rivers and company. Focus on defense first, protect the basketball on offense and spread it around the floor, creating opportunities off double teams on Garnett, Pierce and Allen. The result? The Celtics have the largest division lead over the second place team and last place team today.

However, since Garnett went down in that emotional home win over Minnesota a couple weeks ago, the Celtics have had to adjust to life without The Big Ticket. Thus far, the likes of Rajon Rondo, Kendrick Perkins and Leon Powe have stepped up to contribute meaningful minutes and solid stat lines. The entire offense has benefited from a new, up-tempo style that has seen the Celtics utilize the fast break more, playing like a team that belongs in the Western Conference.

In turn, the teams ppg has risen seven points over the last five games, averaging 106 per night. And it’s been exciting to watch, as Rondo has arguably gotten even better with Garnett out. His ability to drive the lane, create shots and finish has raised the collective eyebrows of opposing defenses. This has given him the opportunity to dish it underneath to Perkins and Powe or kick it out to Allen and Pierce for some wide-eyed, Reche Caldwell type looks.

Although the offense has been drastically better in the last five games, it should be somewhat alarming that they are only 3-2 since KG went down in spite of this. Sure they’ve played some tough opposition and the two losses were by a combined four points. What’s so startling is that the defense has been like a slice of Swiss; teams could drive Noah’s Ark through that lane it’s so wide open. The defense has been terrible, at times non-existent.

As mentioned earlier, it was allowing a league-low 88 ppg in the first 41 games. In the last five? Try 97.4 a night. Ouch. Before the injury, the C’s had held opponents to under 90 points in 22 of 41 games. They have done it once in the last five, that being to a Miami Heat team that might be one of the last four out in Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology.

Let’s face it, defense wins in the Eastern Conference. And defense wins NBA Championships, plain and simple. The Detroit Pistons, who have won over 50 games the last six seasons and are well on their way to a seventh, have allowed only 89.2 ppg since 2001-02 (excluding this season). Since the Lakers 3-peat ended in ’01-’02, four of the last five NBA champions have allowed fewer than 90.5 ppg. The lone exception was the Miami Heat in ’05-’06, shocking the Mavericks in six games.

Don’t get me wrong here. It’s been encouraging to see the Celtics actually score more with Garnett out. And since the team got off to such a torrid start, I actually believe they should continue to sit out Garnett until he is as close to healed as possible. There’s no reason to put a guy out there who is as physically and emotionally dedicated night in and night out as KG is when he’s not ready. Professional athletes are never 100% over the course of an entire season, but with such a sizeable lead, why rush it?

My only concern, however, is if the Celtics can once again adjust back to the style of play with KG in the lineup when he returns. They didn’t start out 34-7 playing like the Suns, that’s for sure. When he returns, he’ll bring that same defensive minded, possession style dynamic back to the court that at one point made people wonder if the ’95-‘96 Bulls’ season was in danger.

Barring a complete meltdown, the chances of the C’s missing the playoffs are as good as the Heat, Clippers, Knicks, Timberwolves, SuperSonics and Grizzlies actually making the second season. But if Rondo and the backcourt continue to play this new, offensive style game, everything the C’s developed as far as team chemistry and dynamic early on will go right out the window. It will be important for Doc Rivers to make sure his team slows the game back down and emphasizes ball movement. And once again, the offensive numbers of Pierce, Allen, Rondo, Perkins and Powe will inevitably take a slight dive. Not just because KG will score his 20 points every night, but because they won’t be taking as many opportunities every night. The focal point and strength of this team is it’s ability to shut teams down and move the ball around until someone has a high percentage shot. If Mike D’Antonio preaches “7 seconds or less” to his Suns team, Doc Rivers should preach that, too…getting across half court.