NFL Mock Draft '07

-Keefe

The NFL draft is less than a week away. I don't claim to be Mel Kiper, but I follow both the college and pro game closely, and this two day event is one of my favorites in the entire sports calender. Here are my predictions for the first 32 picks on Saturday.

1. Raiders- JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU
Raiders need a lot of help, mainly on offense. All signs point towards them picking a franchise QB with the first pick. Since 1990, here are all the quarterbacks to be selected first overall: Jeff George, Drew Bledsoe, Peyton Manning, Tim Couch, Michael Vick, David Carr, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, and Alex Smith. Some were successful, some busts, some too early to tell. Those nine signal callers have a combined 14-16 record in the playoffs, (7 wins by Peyton.) #1 pick can be a crap shoot, but with Andrew Walter the current starter (3 TD, 13 INT last season), they’ll take Russell.

2. Lions- Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
No one is saying Quinn to the Lions, why not? Maybe they should take Calvin Johnson, but with only one out of three high 1st round WRs working out, they’ll be afraid to do that. Their second best receiver played in both the XFL and the Arena League, looks like they can find success outside the top 10. Kitna is 34 years old, and I think I remember him starting one season over Carson Palmer to let the college standout learn the offense… that worked out well for everyone didn’t it? Well besides Kitna.

3. Browns- Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma
Browns would probably go Quinn if the Ohio native drops to three. If Quinn doesn’t go two, three, or nine to Miami, he could fall significantly. Cleveland needs a RB despite picking up Jamal Lewis this off-season. Peterson might be too good to slip much past this spot. Many experts are calling him a sure fire Pro Bowler. A team that only ran for 7 TDs last season (3 by QB Charlie Frye) could certainly use a game changer like Peterson.

4. Buccaneers- Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech
Johnson is regarded as the best player in the draft. Every team could use a guy like this. The Raiders have no one to throw to him, the Lions will be scared to take him, and the Browns, who have a lot of needs, already possess a couple high priced targets (Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow.) The Bucs still may trade up to make sure they land Johnson. Who will be throwing Johnson the ball this season is a completely different question that the Bucs will need to answer.

5. Cardinals- Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin
The Cardinals were everyone’s “sleeper” pick last season. They have great skill players (Boldin, Fitzgerald, Edge, Leinart), but who is protecting them. Joe Thomas, the best offensive lineman in the draft looks like the pick. Arizona also has problems on the defensive line, but with Leinart as the young leader of this team, they’ll need to give him all the time in the world to pick a part defensives throwing to one the best wide receiver combos in football.

6. Redskins- Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
If Gaines Adams slips this far down, the Redskins will have no choice but to take him. The defense needs a lot of help, (31st in total yards allowed per game, and mustered just 19 sacks as a team.) Adams would be a perfect fit (12.5 sacks in 13 games last year.) He’s a play maker, and can rush the passer with the best of them, making everyone else’s job easier on D.

7. Vikings- Leon Hall, CB, Michigan
Hall might be the best CB in the draft even though I’m not sold on him. In the Wolverine’s biggest game of the regular season Ted Ginn torched Hall and the Michigan secondary. Then in the Rose Bowl, Dwayne Jarrett had a huge game against Hall. These are the types of receivers he will be facing every Sunday at the next level. With all that said he still projects as a early-mid first rounder, and the Vikes could use a CB with the departure of Fred “Sex-Boat” Smoot back to the Redskins.

8. Falcons (from Texans)- LaRon Landry, S, LSU
Atlanta moved up two spots here in the first round, because of the Schaub trade. Drafting a WR has been a tough task for the Falcon front office, so this off-season they picked up veteran Joe Horn. Lawyer Milloy had a pretty solid season, but will be 34 in November. Pairing Landry at safety, with Pro Bowler Hall at CB, this could be one of the best defensive backfields in the NFC.

9. Dolphins- Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
Youngest player in the draft won’t have to wait too long to get picked. Okoye would provide much needed run stuffing to the Dolphin D. If Quinn gets past Detroit and Cleveland I don’t see how the Phins can let him go. The insurance policy on Culpepper this season (Cleo Lemon) isn’t what it was a year ago with Harrington.

10. Texans (from Falcons)- Levi Brown, T, Penn St.
David Carr would be proud to see the Texans take an O-lineman. Schaub is even less mobile than Carr making this pick a necessity. It would probably make too much sense to take huge tackle (6’5’, 323.) But as Tristan Besse wrote in his article “Rick Pitino GM of the Texans?” they don’t have the best track record. Almost anywhere on defense would be a boost here as well.

11. 49ers- Alan Branch, DT, Michigan
San Fran has some bright spots on offensive to build around (Smith, Gore, Davis), but they’ll probably go defense with their first pick. Ranked 19th last season against the run, but taking a DT is a smart pick. The NFC West is loaded at RB, (they face Shaun Alexander, Edge James, and Stephen Jackson six times a year.) Okoye would be better, but I doubt he slips down to the 9ers at 11.

12. Bills- Patrick Willis, MLB, Ole Miss
The Bills surprised some people with their season last year (7-9), but have lost a lot of guys because of free agency, or the fear of free agency (McGahee.) Unless they trade up for Peterson I doubt they’ll take a RB in round 1. Without London Fletcher-Baker I see Willis as the pick. Of course the Bills made some head scratching picks in last year’s draft, trading up to take John McCargo in the first round, he was projected as a 3rd rounder a best. So who knows what they’ll do this year, my pick is Willis.

13. Rams- Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska
The Rams were second to last in rushing defense a season ago. They have the same problem as the 49ers, they face serious backs, (Gore, Edge, Alexander, twice each.) St. Louis had success with a DE from Nebraska in the past (Grant Winstrom), and I think they’ll try their luck again with Carriker.

14. Panthers- Greg Olsen, TE, Miami
Jake Delhomme vs. David Carr will be a better QB battle then people are saying. Carr was a #1 overall pick, but just had nothing outside of Andre Johnson to work with in Houston. Give him a chance with Steve Smith, the better Panther O-line, and a solid TE in Greg Olsen, and he could have success.

15. Steelers- Paul Posluszny, OLB, Penn St.
Joey Porter is out, Bill Cower is out, and after a disappointing year following the Super Bowl the Steelers will get back to their roots, defense. Lawrence Timmons from Florida State, looks like the pick here, but Posluszny is safer. Sounds crazy saying Posluszny is safer, with his injuries, but I think Timmons has a better chance to be great as well as a bust. Posluszny, who had an incredible college career (2 time first team All-American, and winner of the Bednarik Award) would be a popular pick in the state of Pennsylvania.

16. Packers- Marshawn Lynch, RB, Cal
Just 9 rushing TDs last season and 5 of them left to play for the Texans (Ahman Green.) This pick should be a slam dunk. Vernand Morency and Noah Herron are probably hoping for anyone else, but not Packer fans. Lynch is the best back in the draft not named Adrian Peterson. He should be the starter in Green Bay, and worth a mid round pick in your fantasy draft this year.

17. Jaguars- Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas
Jacksonville has looked for offensive help with many of their recent early round picks, this time they go D. Anderson would be perfect on the end with Stroud and Henderson in the middle. If they want to compete with the Colts in the AFC South, they’ll need to be able to get after Manning, and Anderson is the guy (13.5 sacks last season, and a 4.75 in the 40 at the combine.) Jags will just hope he’s still on the board at 17.

18. Bengals- Lawrence Timmons, OLB, Florida St.
Even more important than picking a talented player who can play right away, the Bengals need a good character. More than any other team they will be under the microscope of the new commissioner’s witch hunts. Cincy hasn’t helped themselves by picking players like, Frostee Rucker, A.J. Nicholson, and Ahmad Brooks, all of whom have had off the field issues even before going to the NFL. I wonder if Nicholson stole anything from Timmons? Anyway Timmons is an interesting prospect; he’s an early entry who only started one full season at Florida St., where he was just honorable mention all-ACC. He’s ranked on most draft boards ahead of Posluszny, but not on mine.

19. Titans- Ted Ginn Jr., WR, Ohio St.
A fantastic year for wide receivers, Calvin Johnson is the clear cut number one, but there is still great value at this position after him. Ginn could get picked earlier, but if he falls to 19, the Titans have to take him. David Givens looks like the number 1 reason right now, making it essential that they take a receiver early. Drew Bennett has departed, and Vince Young needs someone who can stretch the field. With the loss of Pacman, Ginn can also take of the return duties, which puts him just ahead of all the other talented receivers.

20. Giants- Darrelle Revis, CB, Pitt
The Giants were horrible against the pass last season (28th.) Sam Madison is 33, R.W. McQuarters is 30. Webster is a good young CB, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they take Revis. This is a Giants team that drafted Kiwanuka in the first round when they already had Strahan and Umenyiora. Webster and Revis could turn into a shut down duo.

21. Broncos- Jarvis Moss, DE, Florida
There’s a few ways Denver could go with their first pick. Maybe grab a talented wide out to line up on the other side of Javon Walker, or take an o-tackle to protect Cutler. I think they’ll go defense. Moss is an insane athlete, over 6’6’’, and can rush the passer forcing early throws into what should be one of the best secondaries in the league with Champ Bailey and Dre Bly.

22. Cowboys- Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU
Owens and Glenn are getting up there in age, and after those two the Cowboys don’t have much to throw to on the outside. A handful of great WRs should be left to chose from at 22, including Bowe, (6’2, 221 lbs, 4.51 in the 40.) Based on his skills he would immediately be 3rd on the depth charts, and make the Dallas offense explosive.

23. Chiefs- Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee
Meachem is my favorite receiver in the draft besides Johnson. He has good size, (6’2, 214) and he’s fast, (4.39 40.) Tony Gonzalez is great, but one of the main reasons he’s always the team’s leading receiver is because they don’t have anyone else. Eddie Kennison and Samie Parker won’t get it done, again. Meachem would be perfect if he falls, even Bowe, Jarrett, Rice would be an improvement on what they have.

24. Patriots (from Seahawks)- Jon Beason, OLB, Miami
Would the Pats rather have Deion Branch or this pick? Seeing as though they were a first down away from going to the Super Bowl, and have since signed Donte Stallworth, Wes Welker, and Kelley Washington, I’d go with the pick. Beason is a guy who can play any linebacker spot, making him very valuable in the Patriots’ scheme. Vrabel and Bruschi are getting older, if Patrick Willis somehow falls down this far they should take him, but since that probably won’t happen Beason is a good alternative despite being a natural OLB.

25. Jets- Justin Harrell, DT, Tennessee
Last year the Jets secured their offensive line with a couple of early picks. I think they’ll go d-line with their first pick this draft. Harrell is a big 300 pound tackle who has a chance to be great. He missed the last ten games of his senior season, and because of that he’ll be a late rather than early first rounder. Whoever picks him could be getting a steal.

26. Eagles- Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC
Safety or middle linebacker could be possibilities here, but the Eagles will try and fill the void of Stallworth, (who was filling the void of Owens.) Even though four receivers have already been taken, there are good ones left, including Jarrett. His stock has fell in the last month, and I’m not sure why. The Eagles shouldn’t worry about that and take him. Despite being a tall, successful receiver at USC, Jarrett is not Mike Williams. He did not sit out a whole season before going to the NFL, so don’t compare the two.

27. Saints- Aaron Ross, CB, Texas
The Saints did real well last season against the pass (3rd in the league), but with Mike McKenzie (soon to be 31) and Jason David (who’s 5’8’’) set to be their starting corners it wouldn’t hurt to take someone like Ross. The 6 foot tall Longhorn would give them size and speed on the edge, allowing David or McKenzie to slide over to nickel.

28. Patriots- Reggie Nelson, S, Florida
The Patriots like versatile players. With Beason as their first choice who can play each linebacker spot, Nelson would be a great addition to the secondary. He can play both safety and corner a la Eugene Wilson. Let’s just hope he can stay on the field longer than Wilson. Also Belichick and Meyer are friends. Nelson would fit right in with the four other former Gators already in New England.

29. Ravens- Eric Wright, CB, UNLV
I’m not sure there is another OLB worth a first round pick. Someone like Beason or Timmons would be perfect for the Ravens. Samari Rolle has clear lost a step, and a team can never have enough talent in the secondary. Wright also can help out in the return game, and even play a little offense for the Runnin’ Rebels. Wright is considered more likely a second round pick, in large part because of his off the field character issues. But if a team is confident in him, he could be a great pick.

30. Chargers- Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina
Eric Parker and Vincent Jackson are currently the starting receivers on the Chargers, a team who’s eyes are on the Super Bowl. LT and Gates are good enough to carry the offense, but wouldn’t San Diego want to at least try to give Rivers a weapon on the outside? Rice will be available at 30, he’s a 6’4’’ receiver with speed, who had over 1,000 yards and double digit TDs in both years as a Gamecock.

31. Bears- Tank Tyler, DT, NC State
What’s the best way to replace a Tank? That’s right, with another Tank. Even if Tank Johnson doesn’t miss any action next season Tank Tyler would be a good pick up for the defending NFC champs. No glaring needs for the Bears, unless you’re a Grossman basher, or if they can’t figure out something with Lance Briggs. Tank would be a good pick for the Bears though, not just because of his name… ok it would be just for the name. Truth is Chicago could easily get him in the second round (37th) if they really wanted another Tank, but I’m only doing a 1st round mock draft and wanted Tank on my list.

32. Colts- Ben Grubbs, OG, Auburn
The Super Bowl champs were the worst against the run, in the regular season, and they also lost Cato June. Despite their struggles on the defensive side I got the Colts taking the best guard in the draft in Ben Grubbs. Someone who will protect their man Peyton, and open holes for second year back Joseph Addai.


Well that’s how I see the first round of the draft shaking out next weekend. Always an exciting couple of days for die hard NFL fans, I’m really looking forward to it. If you have any questions or thoughts about my picks please leave a comment or send an e-mail to sportsbrief@gmail.com.


-Rich Keefe