Frank Mir v. Brock Lesnar
TB: I’m trying not to let my loyalty to Mir as a fan cloud my judgement here, but it’s hard based on the sheer strength and size of Lesnar. There’s no question that Lesnar will look for the takedown immediately and instill some serious ground and pound. This is where Frank Mir needs to be the old champ Frank Mir. And we saw flashes of that brilliancy against Antoni Hardonk at UFC 74. Mir looked to be in good shape, and he actually initiated the takedown and immediately worked for a submission before locking in a kimura.
Can he do this against Lesnar? His brutal TKO to Marcio Cruz would imply no. However, that was his first fight back from the serious motorcycle accident and Lesnar is too inexperienced not to leave a limb hanging out there for Mir to grab at and lock in on. My prediction? Mir survives an early storm and uses his jiu-jitsu prowess to keep Lesnar in full guard before locking in an arm-bar and nearly breaking it until the fight is stopped.
TB: Mir by submission late in Round 1.
RK: I got to agree Bess. Lesnar’s MMA debut didn’t last long, and I believe the guy he beat takes the trash out in my building. Mir is one of the best BJJ fighters in the world, and almost in a league of his own as a heavyweight. Will Mir be able to take down Lesnar? Probably not, but Mir works miracles on his back. If this was Lesnar’s 4th or 5th fight I’d give him a better chance, but he’s never been in the cage with a guy the caliber of Frank Mir.
Take a look back at the 1999 NCAA wrestling heavyweight final between one Brock Lesnar vs. Stephen Neal. How about the paths those guys took? It’s going to be a great weekend for one of them, but not Lesnar as he loses his first fight in the UFC as Neal captures another Super Bowl ring.
RK: Mir by submission in Round 1.
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (#2 in Keefe UFC rankings) vs. Tim Sylvia (#3 in Keefe UFC rankings)
RK: This is obviously for the interim heavyweight championship, which will likely never be unified as Randy Couture is showing no signs of fighting again in the UFC. Big Nog is one of the all time great Pride champions, and is one of the most well known fighters in Japan. He has had only 1 fight in the UFC which was a decision victory over Heath Herring, where he was almost knocked out with a high kick. He has fought some of the best heavyweights in the world including Fedor, Cro Cop, Werdum, and celebrity rehab’s own Ricco Rodriguez, but all of them in a ring. We have seen many Pride fighters struggle in the octagon, a place where Tim Sylvia is very comfortable.
Sylvia is trying to become just the first 3-time Champ in the UFC. After losing the belt to the Natural he bounced back with a decision victory over Brandon Vera. Sylvia beat Arlovski two in a row after losing to him 3 years ago, which rank as two of his signature wins. In his last 4 fights Tim is 3-1 all of which have gone to decision. I think this one will be no different, but in a boring main event with two big name fighters, he loses to the Pride vet.
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira wins by decision.
TB: Sorry, Rich, but I have to disagree. Big Nog hasn’t submitted a high profile fighter since Heath Herring in their second fight back in PRIDE. And while he has fought the best in the world, Sylvia has continuously fought the best the UFC has to offer…and for the most part, whether you like or not, he’s won. And this is his home court in the Octagon.
As far as the style matchups, the only real advantage in this fight for Nogueira is the submission game. But Sylvia is 5 inches taller and has a significant reach advantage over Nog and will look to use that in the standup game. We saw against Jeff Monson that he has good submission defense, and I look at Couture’s five round dominance as Sylvia being defeated by the guy who is arguable the best heavyweight in the world. That, Big Nog is not.
Sylvia will be taken down once or twice, but will neutralize the ground attack with his long frame. Eventually, Nogueira will run into too many punches trying to come in and hit the mat. From there, Sylvia will rain down blows until the fight comes to a halt.
TB: Sylvia by a shocking (T)KO in the 3rd round.
Nathan Marquardt (#4 in Keefe UFC Rankings) vs. Jeremy Horn
RK: Jeremy Horn has 79 wins in mma, but has not fought in the UFC since May of 2006. Horn was a replacement for Thales Leites. Horn certainly won’t be intimidated in this once as he has been in cage or ring with the likes of Chuck Liddell, Randy Couture, Ricardo Arona, Babalu Sobral, Forrest Griffin, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueria, Anderson Silva, and Matt Lindland. Check out that list again.
Marquardt had been undefeated in the UFC until he was rewarded a middleweight title shot against Anderson Silva. He lost at the end of the 1st round via TKO. Everyone has looked bad against Silva, so I throw that fight out. Marquart will get back on the winning side of things with a victory over Horn.
RK: Nathan Marquardt wins via submission 2nd round.
TB: I agree here, Rich. While Horn has an impressive resume of opponents and over 100 fights in MMA, 79 of which he has won, he’s only 3-3 in his last six fights over the past two years and has been nowhere near as active as he once was; try six fights in ’05, seven in ’04 and a whopping 10 in ’03!
Marquardt, meanwhile, was just another victim in an endless line of futile attempts at Anderson Silva. He had been a force up until that point and still is, in my view. He will be the stronger fighter and hasn’t been submitted since ’03. Marquardt will control the fight on the feet and work some ground and pound while being cautious and respectful of Horn’s ground acumen. In the end, he does enough.
TB: Marquardt wins by Decision.
Rob Yundt v. Ricardo Almeida
TB: Don’t know who Ricardo Almeida is? Not surprised if you didn’t follow MMA until the big boom a couple years ago. This guy walked away from the sport at 27 to focus on other interests after scoring a six-fight win streak. The last three wins were over Ryo Chonan, Nathan Marquadt and Kazuo Masaki. Pretty good.
Don’t know who Rob Yundt is? Neither do I, and neither does anyone outside of Alaska. This was a pretty good fight when Alan Belcher was involved, but Yundt steps in on short notice and will be overmatched. I think he goes for broke early but Almeida scores a takedown and works for his opponents back. Ultimately, Yundt succumbs.
Almeida by Submission (Rear Naked Choke).
RK: Almeida does have a nice win streak going Bess, but it was back in 2003-2004, and he hasn’t fought in the UFC since January of ’02. I think he’s going to have to shake off a lot of rust. Rob Yundt? Almeida could fight Brian Sharkey and I think in his first fight in over 3 years it would still go to decision. I’m sure the UFC is hoping for an early stoppage so Almeida can get in the mix in their soft middleweight division. He wins, but not impressively.
RK: Almeida by decision.
Tyson Griffin vs. Gleison Tibau
RK: Battle at 155 here. Griffin is trying to cement himself as one of the best lightweights in the UFC. After losing to Frankie Edgar (his only MMA loss) he has rattled off two impressive wins over Clay Guida and Thiago Tavares both by decision. Tibau has won 4 straight fights, 3 of which in the UFC and is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu fighter. Tibau has more experience than Griffin, but I like Tyson to win a hard fought out decision.
RK: Tyson Griffin by decision.
TB: I can’t help but remember Thiago Tavares lackluster decision win at UFN 12. Reason being, I think this will mirror that, but only for the 1st round. Neither of these fighters has shown the ability to finish opponents regularly and for the first five minutes it will be a battle of attrition. But Griffin has fought some aggressive opponents and uses that experience to maintain control until he lands a big shot and goes in for the kill out of nowhere in the 2nd round.
TB: Griffin by (T)KO in the 2nd round.
Terry Martin vs. Marvin Eastman
RK: Marvin Eastman via KO 2nd round.
TB: Marvin Eastman via KO 1st round.
Tim Boetsch vs. David Heath
RK: Tim Boetsch via submission 2nd round (but will let go unlike Babalu)
TB: David Heath by Decision.
Keita Nakamura vs. Rob Emerson
RK: Rob Emerson via decision.
TB: Keita Nakamura by submission in 1st round.
Chris Lytle vs. Kyle Bradley
RK: Chris Lytle via submission via 1st round.
TB: Chris Lytle by Decision.
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