- Arizona and Green Bay - after the Pats game I was at a friend's place and a couple guys in the room were hammering the over, particularly teasing it down from 49.5 to 42.5. On the blog I had taken Arizona (-0.5) and the Under 57, but allowed myself to make a last minute change to Over 36. And there we were, just seconds left and the Packers trailing the Cardinals 20-13 which, if you're counting at home, is only 33 points. Then this:
Everyone in the room came out of their seat, not because of the improbability of the Hail Mary, the throw by Rodgers rolling left with a guy in his face, or the catch by a streaking Janis...with the O/U teased down to 42.5, we were a virtual lock to now hit the Over which seconds ago was all but forgotten. Then Fitzgerald went 80 yards in two plays to score the game-winning TD and it was done. One of the greatest comebacks in betting history that I've been a part of. - The other gem was the Broncos and Steelers, who entered the 4th quarter with Denver (-7.5) trailing 13-12. And just when it looked like the Steelers might be able to put this thing away, Toussaint fumbles, Denver gets new life, and after a CJ Anderson TD run and successful 2-point conversion to Demaryius Thomas, it's suddenly 20-13. I felt pretty comfortable with my teaser at this point (DEN -0.5, U47), but any Denver (-7.5) backers were still sweating it out. Then football happened. Big Ben takes a 13-yard sack on 4th and 5 and Denver gets it back at the PIT 30. Three plays to kill clock, and Brandon Mcmanus hits a FG to make it 23-13 and all the money shifts to Denver backers after an entire game in which it never appeared there was a chance. Then football happened again. A 22-yard PI call, two quick strikes to Martavis Bryant, and Mike Tomlin, who clearly had PIT +7.5, opts to kick a FG to make it 23-16 with :19 and go for the onside and Hail Mary. Denver recovers, it's over, and Denver backers were officially dead after coming back to life briefly, if only for a moment.
What a weekend, which sets us up for what should be a couple fun games tomorrow. A quick reminder that all lines are from Sportsbook.ag, the official unofficial sportsbook of Besse's Bets. Here we go...
New England (-3.5) at Denver (O/U 44.5)
No one is giving Denver a chance in this game and for the most part, neither am I. The Pats are the healthiest they've been in weeks, and we saw the difference having Jules back last week made. Gives Brady a reliable receiver who is quick off the line, can get separation and be there as a safety blanket especially when there's pressure. And that opens the field for Gronk to work. The O-line played really well last week, too, which was a pleasant surprise. Keeping Brady upright is key, as we saw in losses to the Jets and Dolphins when he was pressured and beaten pretty badly.
The Broncos are going to bring pressure and try to rough him up - we've heard it through the media and some back and forth tweets between Broncos players and Gronk have added some fodder.
Heard their whole team is good at giving low blows 😜🏈 https://t.co/nDOsOwkvki— Rob Gronkowski (@RobGronkowski) January 19, 2016
I think we'll see a lot of quick passes to Edelman and James White, which will open things up for Gronk, as well. On the other side of the ball, I think Denver will score. They found success running the ball earlier in the season against NE with Osweiler at QB, and while Manning's arm is nothing more than a water gun right now, they can rely on quick slants to DT and Sanders who can make plays after the catch. But it won't be enough - New England's health makes them the best team in the AFC again, and perhaps the NFL excluding Arizona, and I think they'll avenge the November loss and head to their 8th Super Bowl.
The score: New England 30, Denver 23
New England -3.5, Over 44.5
7-point teaser: New England +4.5, Over 37.5
Arizona (+3) at Carolina (O/U 48)
This is going to be a fun game to watch. Everyone talks about the Carolina defense and how talented it is, but I think they're more opportunistic than anything else. They make plays and capitalize, as we saw last week with Luke Kuechly's pick-6 of Russell Wilson that made it 14-0 en route to a 31-0 halftime lead. But this D has bent and nearly broken multiple times this season: OT win against Indy (29-26, Rodgers nearly bringing GB back late the following week (37-29), the Saints win (41-38), and then last week nearly blowing a 31-point lead against Seattle, getting outscored 24-0 in the second half.
While these two teams rank 5th (AZ) and 6th (CAR) respectively in team defense, I feel the Cardinals have been more consistent on that side of the ball than Carolina. And on offense, they've got significantly more weapons with the likes of David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and John Brown. Carolina is limited with Jonathan Steward and Greg Olsen, though Newton's legs and playmaking ability often neutralize whatever advantage other teams often have.
I think this is going to be a terrific game, the better of the two this weekend. A back-and-forth, close battle throughout. And while I think Arizona is the better team and has a great shot to win, I continue to believe there's a destiny in play for Carolina: to lose to Brady and the Pats in Super Bowl 50. It's a game-winning FG type of game, one that comes on the heels of a final drive by Newton and the Panthers in the final seconds.
The score: Carolina 23, Arizona 20
Arizona +3.5, Under 48
7-point teaser: Carolina +4.5, Over 41*
*Note: While my final prediction score barely hits the teased over, I'm taking that bet b/c I believe the game could in fact be a shootout, so my confidence in teasing down the over vs. teasing up the under is significantly higher, thus the play.
I've already officially booked my 7-point teasers for the weekend, but follow me on Twitter (@tbesse29) for updates on my betting, the games, and other bullshit I tweet and RT.
Good luck this weekend and enjoy the games!
-Besse
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