I wanted to write this a little closer to post this weekend given all the injuries in question, particularly for the Pats/Chiefs game. We're about 4 hours from kickoff, and I need get in leg day before kickoff, so here we are.
Last week, I went 3-1 on Saturday and 2-2 on Sunday - I hit all the O/U and only one spread, but had a lot more success with my 7-point teasers, parlaying game spreads and O/U for each game. I went 3-1 in those, so I'll post my teaser plays along with the spread and O/U predictions. Here we go, time do my job.
Quick note - all spreads and O/U are from sportsbook.ag, the official sportsbook of The Sports Brief (not really, just the online book I use).
Chiefs @ Patriots (-5, O/U 44)
This is the weirdest game of the weekend because unlike the Steelers and Broncos, who have key players already ruled out, many of the big guns in this game are questionable and hoping to play. So it makes it a difficult game to predict. But pre-game reports indicate Edelman, Gronk, and Amendola are all in. Maclin may not be. So I'm analyzing this game assuming the following -
Edelman is the most healthy of the bunch, Amendola is comparable, and Gronk is not at full speed but gutting it out. And Maclin doesn't play or is ineffective, especially against Butler, nor does Ware.
That being said, it's in the 40's and raining at Gillette today, which I think will be a significant factor. I expect big games from James White and Edelman as the Patriots look to a) keep Brady upright and react to the pressure given their woes in the O-line and b) don't look to take significant risks in the passing game with the weather conditions.
I also think the Chiefs will struggle to move the ball in this weather, especially if Maclin and Ware are out or not able to go full speed. Don't be surprised if we get a Patriots TD on defense. Kelce could be a big factor for them, but may need him to stay down and block and open the run game or give Smith more time for guys to get open in the passing game. And I don't see the WR's finding a lot of success - outside of Maclin they're not very good and the Pats' secondary should find success.
And my brother made a good point about the Chiefs - the 11-game winning streak is impressive at face value, but look at who they beat:
- Landry Jones' Steelers
- Lions
- Manning's worst game ever Broncos
- Chargers
- Bills
- David Carr's epic meltdown Raiders
- Chargers (again)
- Ravens
- Browns
- Raiders (much closer this time)
- And then the shitty Texans
It's not all that great. So the pick is:
Pats -5
Under 44
7-point teaser: Pats +2, Under 51
Final score: Patriots 23, Chiefs 13
Packers @ Cardinals (-7.5, Under 49.5)
Last week I thought the Redskins would actually win this game, and while GB looked good, especially in the 2nd half, and I hit the teaser with GB +8 with ease, the game did remind that the Packers were in fact playing, the Redskins.
I do think GB started to find themselves in this game - a nice balance of the run game with Lacy/Starks and reducing their reliance on the passing game as much as games and teams past. But Davante Adams is out which opens a couple things for the Cardinals on defense:
- 6th against the run this year, and they can look to shut down Lacy and Starks
- Force the Packers to lean on Rodgers and the passing game, especially forcing 3-and-long situations
Meanwhile, the Cardinals are loaded on offense and had a couple weeks to rest. Arians is a terrific coach, and I think David Johnson has a big game against a defense that allowed 120 yards per game on the ground.
The pick:
Cardinals -7.5
Under 49.5
7-point teaser: Cardinals -0.5, Over 43
Final score: Cardinals 27, Packers 14
Seahawks @ Panthers (-2.5, Under 44)
I've been back and forth on this one. There's something about the Seahawks - two straight SB appearances, explosive offensive production from Week 10 to the end of the season, #1 defense in the regular season, Beast Mode is back, and the horseshoe up their ass last week when Blair Walsh hit a Tiger Woods' doublecross into the fucking treeline.
Then I look across the field and I see the #6 defense, Cam Newton playing the best football of his career, Jonathan Stewart back, and the Panthers at home. I also love how Carolina was tested several times coming down the stretch during their pursuit of 16-0. While they ultimately went 15-1 after losing to Atlanta in week 16, the resilience they showed in beating Seattle on the road, Indy in OT after a furious comeback by Luck, holding on GB in a late-game push, and incredible rallies by the Saints and Giants, I love this team's ability to hang tough in difficult spots late in games and find a way to win. I don't think this is one of those low-scoring games like we saw last week in Minnesota - the weather is much better as is Cam Newton (in lieu of Teddy Bridgewater). But I think it'll be a tight, back-and-forth battle in which we see Newton and Wilson trade scores and great players and leadership of their teams. But ultimately, I think we see the Panthers resilience prevail again as they lean on the tandem of Newton and Greg Olsen through the air, and the defense makes a big stop late to set up a final, field-goal scoring drive orchestrated by Newton to move on to the NFC Championship.
The pick:
Panthers -2.5
Under 44
7-point teaser: Seattle +9.5, Under 51
Final score: Panthers 20, Seahawks 17
Steelers @ Broncos (-7.5, O/U 40)
The Steelers are completely undermanned in this game, and it's unfortunate b/c this could have been a terrific game in a rematch of two teams who treated us to a gem in Week 15, a game the Steelers won 34-27 but not without some theater at the end.
The concussed Antonio Brown is out, now fielding apologies from Pacman Jones, and D'Angelo Williams is also out. Big Ben took a beating last week and for all we know, likely can't throw the ball 30 yards down field, something Martavis Bryant often benefits from.
Meanwhile, Peyton Manning returns as a game manager after Brock Osweiler put in a week 10 Manning-esque performance in Week 17 against the Chargers. In came Manning, who handed the ball off the rest of the game then was given credit for dragging then out of the depths of despair, which was laughable.
Regardless, the Steelers are fighting ISIS with muskets on Sunday. I see the Broncos running the ball well with Hillman and Anderson, opening up the field for a big game from Demaryius Thomas. I actually stacked Manning, Thomas and Sanders as I think they'll light up the Steelers D and bury Pitt. I don't care how tough Big Ben and the Steelers are, they just don't have anything left for this game. And the Broncos are fresh, at home, and have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball.
The pick:
Broncos -7.5
Under 40
7-point teaser: Broncos -0.5, Under 47
Final score: Broncos 24, Steelers 10
I'll be posting final teaser picks on my Twitter today and tomorrow - @tbesse29 - so follow along for any updates, bragging, or suicide notes. Good luck this weekend, and Go Pats!
-Besse
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