Before I get into my breakdown and picks for tonight's UFC 143 PPV card, I want to start with a quick op-ed on the 2nd installment of the UFC on Fox series.
I didn't watch the fights live. I was in San Diego for an engagement party, so I set the DVR and followed the action on my Twitter feed the entire night. I wasn't surprised by the results, but I was more surprised about some of the opinions that flooded Twitter in regards to performances, particularly the Sonnen-Bisping fight.
After watching the fights on DVR last night, I have to say that I don't disagree with the judge who scored it 30-27. The first two rounds were razor-thin close. And just because a fight is scored 30-27 doesn't mean it was a dominant performance by one fighter. S/He could have barely won all three rounds, but won them nonetheless. I think that was the case with Sonnen.
The first round was closely fought, particularly in the 2nd half when Bisping started to control the clinch against the cage. But by control, I mean position only. He mounted little offense, as he just kept Sonnen up against it. I thought Sonnen's work early in the round gave him the nod. He scored two takedowns and mounted some offense on the first one in particular, landing solid shots to Bisping's grill.
The second round was the closest of the match and could have gone either way. You wanna give it to Bisping? I won't complain. But I thought Sonnen landed the more effective strikes and seemed to have more of an impact when on the offensive. Bisping defended the takedowns well, but I just never really saw him land any effective strikes. But again, closest of the fight.
In the third, Sonnen shifted the momentum in his direction, scoring the most dominant round of the fight. He landed a beautiful double right out of the gate, landed in the mount, took Bisping's back, and found himself in dominant positions that swayed the round in his favor. Solid round. I probably would have scored it 29-28 Sonnen, but again, I didn't disagree with the 30-27.
Takeaways from the fight were that Sonnen will need to be more effective on the feet if he plans to have a chance against Silva. Landing that big shot early in their first fight gave Silva something else to think about and opened up the takedowns for Sonnen throughout. But against Bisping, while his takedowns were crisp, his striking was sloppy. He came forward with no regard for Bisping's power - perhaps part of his strategy given Bisping hits with little mittens - and he won't be able to do that against Silva. But props to Bisping. Great performance. I'd like to see him fight Munoz next after Munoz recovers from injury to determine the next guy in line to fight the winner of Silva-Sonnen II.
The Evans-Davis fight was a showcase of how much better Evans is, and solidified him as the #1 contender. Davis' striking was ineffective and he looked timid and overwhelmed in such a high-profile fight. Evans, meanwhile, did his job, got the win, and now moves on to take on Jon Jones in what has become a budding rivalry. Should be a great event at UFC 145 in Atlanta.
Now onto UFC 143...
Nick Diaz vs. Carlos Condit
Diaz-Condit will fight for the interim welterweight crown as champion Georges St. Pierre recovers from a blown-out knee. This fight should be exciting, as both guys are high-volume fighters that bring it every time they step out there.
The cardio and pace of Diaz is stuff for legends, particularly in the latter part of his career where we've seen him wear down opponents, drag them into deep waters and impose his will late in the fight when his opponent is broken down and unable to sustain any success because of the beating they've taken, rendering them useless. Most recently, it was BJ Penn, who had success in the 1st round but was worn out from the activity of Diaz in the 2nd and was lucky to survive in the 3rd. Diaz's boxing is, in my opinion, the best in MMA. He's active, effective, and benefits from power through volume. In other words, the sheer volume of punches that he lands eventually take their toll and make him more powerful later in the fight, when he's still strong and his opponent is not. The body punches break down the defense, leaving openings up top where he can capitalize with multi-punch combinations.
On the ground, his Gracie black belt in jiu-jitsu looms. And his submissions are tight. Pick your poison with Diaz. Wherever the fight goes, he's going to be a handful.
Condit, meanwhile, is a diverse striker with knockout power, great kicks and knees. He's got more highlight reel knockouts on the feet than Diaz, including his last couple victories: a KO win over brawler Dan Hardy and a brutal KO via flying knee against Dong Hyun Kim. The win over Hardy was shocking, as both men landed simultaneous punches, with Condit's landing on the button of Hardy, putting him down and eventually out via final blows on the ground. The victory over Kim, however, was just as impressive as Condit landed a flying knee then sent Kim into a quick coma with strikes as Kim was pressed and trapped up against the cage with nowhere to hide. Brutal.
The ground game of Condit is solid and competent. Perhaps not on the level of Diaz, but if the fight goes there, it will be fun to watch. Condit has 13 submissions wins to Diaz's 8, but I still give the edge Diaz there. But again, to talented practitioners of jiu-jitsu on the ground should be fun to watch.
For my pick, I'm going 3rd round (T)KO to Diaz. I think the first couple rounds will be competitive, as both men will have their moments. But late in the 2nd Diaz will start to shift the momentum in his favor, peppering Condit with punches to the body and head. In the 3rd, Condit will start to wear down, and halfway through the round Diaz will body-head combination that forces Condit to keel over at the waste, leaving an opening for Diaz to pepper the head and take Condit out for the stoppage and interim title.
Pick: Diaz over Condit via 2nd round (T)KO due to strikes (3:49)
Additional picks:
Roy Nelson over Fabricio Werdum via 2nd round KO (punch)
Josh Koscheck over Mike Pierce via decision (lay & pray)
-Bess
