UFC on Fox 2 Thoughts and 143 Predictions

Before I get into my breakdown and picks for tonight's UFC 143 PPV card, I want to start with a quick op-ed on the 2nd installment of the UFC on Fox series.

I didn't watch the fights live. I was in San Diego for an engagement party, so I set the DVR and followed the action on my Twitter feed the entire night. I wasn't surprised by the results, but I was more surprised about some of the opinions that flooded Twitter in regards to performances, particularly the Sonnen-Bisping fight.

After watching the fights on DVR last night, I have to say that I don't disagree with the judge who scored it 30-27. The first two rounds were razor-thin close. And just because a fight is scored 30-27 doesn't mean it was a dominant performance by one fighter. S/He could have barely won all three rounds, but won them nonetheless. I think that was the case with Sonnen.

The first round was closely fought, particularly in the 2nd half when Bisping started to control the clinch against the cage. But by control, I mean position only. He mounted little offense, as he just kept Sonnen up against it. I thought Sonnen's work early in the round gave him the nod. He scored two takedowns and mounted some offense on the first one in particular, landing solid shots to Bisping's grill.

The second round was the closest of the match and could have gone either way. You wanna give it to Bisping? I won't complain. But I thought Sonnen landed the more effective strikes and seemed to have more of an impact when on the offensive. Bisping defended the takedowns well, but I just never really saw him land any effective strikes. But again, closest of the fight.

In the third, Sonnen shifted the momentum in his direction, scoring the most dominant round of the fight. He landed a beautiful double right out of the gate, landed in the mount, took Bisping's back, and found himself in dominant positions that swayed the round in his favor. Solid round. I probably would have scored it 29-28 Sonnen, but again, I didn't disagree with the 30-27.

Takeaways from the fight were that Sonnen will need to be more effective on the feet if he plans to have a chance against Silva. Landing that big shot early in their first fight gave Silva something else to think about and opened up the takedowns for Sonnen throughout. But against Bisping, while his takedowns were crisp, his striking was sloppy. He came forward with no regard for Bisping's power - perhaps part of his strategy given Bisping hits with little mittens - and he won't be able to do that against Silva. But props to Bisping. Great performance. I'd like to see him fight Munoz next after Munoz recovers from injury to determine the next guy in line to fight the winner of Silva-Sonnen II.

The Evans-Davis fight was a showcase of how much better Evans is, and solidified him as the #1 contender. Davis' striking was ineffective and he looked timid and overwhelmed in such a high-profile fight. Evans, meanwhile, did his job, got the win, and now moves on to take on Jon Jones in what has become a budding rivalry. Should be a great event at UFC 145 in Atlanta.

Now onto UFC 143...

Nick Diaz vs. Carlos Condit

Diaz-Condit will fight for the interim welterweight crown as champion Georges St. Pierre recovers from a blown-out knee. This fight should be exciting, as both guys are high-volume fighters that bring it every time they step out there.

The cardio and pace of Diaz is stuff for legends, particularly in the latter part of his career where we've seen him wear down opponents, drag them into deep waters and impose his will late in the fight when his opponent is broken down and unable to sustain any success because of the beating they've taken, rendering them useless. Most recently, it was BJ Penn, who had success in the 1st round but was worn out from the activity of Diaz in the 2nd and was lucky to survive in the 3rd. Diaz's boxing is, in my opinion, the best in MMA. He's active, effective, and benefits from power through volume. In other words, the sheer volume of punches that he lands eventually take their toll and make him more powerful later in the fight, when he's still strong and his opponent is not. The body punches break down the defense, leaving openings up top where he can capitalize with multi-punch combinations.

On the ground, his Gracie black belt in jiu-jitsu looms. And his submissions are tight. Pick your poison with Diaz. Wherever the fight goes, he's going to be a handful.

Condit, meanwhile, is a diverse striker with knockout power, great kicks and knees. He's got more highlight reel knockouts on the feet than Diaz, including his last couple victories: a KO win over brawler Dan Hardy and a brutal KO via flying knee against Dong Hyun Kim. The win over Hardy was shocking, as both men landed simultaneous punches, with Condit's landing on the button of Hardy, putting him down and eventually out via final blows on the ground. The victory over Kim, however, was just as impressive as Condit landed a flying knee then sent Kim into a quick coma with strikes as Kim was pressed and trapped up against the cage with nowhere to hide. Brutal.

The ground game of Condit is solid and competent. Perhaps not on the level of Diaz, but if the fight goes there, it will be fun to watch. Condit has 13 submissions wins to Diaz's 8, but I still give the edge Diaz there. But again, to talented practitioners of jiu-jitsu on the ground should be fun to watch.

For my pick, I'm going 3rd round (T)KO to Diaz. I think the first couple rounds will be competitive, as both men will have their moments. But late in the 2nd Diaz will start to shift the momentum in his favor, peppering Condit with punches to the body and head. In the 3rd, Condit will start to wear down, and halfway through the round Diaz will body-head combination that forces Condit to keel over at the waste, leaving an opening for Diaz to pepper the head and take Condit out for the stoppage and interim title.

Pick: Diaz over Condit via 2nd round (T)KO due to strikes (3:49)

Additional picks:

Roy Nelson over Fabricio Werdum via 2nd round KO (punch)

Josh Koscheck over Mike Pierce via decision (lay & pray)

-Bess

UFC 123 Breakdown and Picks

We are now a day away from UFC 123, which features a headline bout between two former light heavyweight champions in Quinton "Rampage" Jackson and Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida. In addition, the top MMA organization offers us a co-main event between former welterweight champion Matt Hughes and former lightweight and welterweight champion BJ "The Prodigy" Penn. This will be the third bout in what will surely go down as one of the greater trilogies in the history of combat sport. The entire card is very solid, and without further delay, let's get to the breakdown and picks courtesy of The Sports Brief. We'll start with a technical breakdown of each fight on the main card and follow with picks from both myself and Keefe. Enjoy.

Quinton "Rampage" Jackson v. Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida

Machida started out his mma career winning 16 straight fights, utilizing his unorthodox striking and karate background to remain elusive and lure his opponents into uncomfortable spots where he was able to capitalize with excellent counter striking. For a while, fans and mma pundits often characterized his style as "boring", noting his failure to finish fights on a frequent basis and excite the crowd. He was certainly not a guy you were expecting to cash in on a "Fight of the Night" bonus. But knocked Thiago Silva out cold at UFC 94, then really burst into the spotlight with his devastating KO of Rashad Evans at UFC 98. He picked Evans apart, almost finishing the fight in the first round before putting Evans to sleep with a barrage of strikes; Evans was left snoring up against the cage, and at the time, UFC commentator Joe Rogan exclaimed, "Welcome to the Machida Era".

Incredibly, that era almost came to an abrupt end at UFC 104, when many thought Mauricio "Shogun" Rua put forth a winning effort before losing a disputed unanimous decision. In the rematch at UFC 113, Rua did not leave it to the judges, putting the champion out on his back and claiming what many thought was his after the first fight: The UFC Light Heavyweight title. The two fights with Shogun were a bit of an eye opener, as it showed someone with effective strikes from the outside that can cut off Machida could score points and flip the script, putting him in uncomfortable positions. If you go back and look at the Tito Ortiz fight, Machida did a lot of back peddling and lateral movement, and Tito chased. He didn't cut him off, just chased him in the direction he was moving. Because of that, Machida could stop on a dime and land a strike or series of strikes as Tito was still coming forward, not expecting Machida to engage. This caught Ortiz off-guard, and ultimately led to a decision victory for "The Dragon".

His opponent, however, is as tough on the feet as you'll find in this sport. Jackson has some of the best boxing skills in MMA and can light up an opponent with power in both hands. He also has impressive counter strikes, ala his KO of Chuck Liddell, and a chin that makes him hard to put down, nevermind put out. He has excellent wrestling skills and his brute strength is incredible; just ask Ricardo Arona:




In order for Rampage to be successful on Saturday night, I think he'll need to force Machida to engage. Take the center of the Octagon, cut him off with angles and footwork, and stand in the pocket and trade. While Machida has shown power and great counter striking, I think Rampage has the ability to take multiple shots while in the pocket in the hopes of landing one that can change the momentum in an instant. If he fails to get in Machida's face, he'll probably end up losing a decision much in the same fashion as his loss to Forrest Griffin. At UFC 86, Griffin seized the belt from Jackson by hurting him with leg kicks and volume striking. Griffin got knocked down a couple times, but managed to strike and move away before Jackson could land a knockout blow.

Matt Hughes v. BJ Penn

The series is tied at one apiece, and Saturday night will put an end to a fantastic trilogy between two of the sports greatest ever. What's so fascinating about this fight is that while the first two seemed like the ultimate grudge matches between two men that truly disliked one another, there doesn't seem to be that same sentiment between the two anymore, at least not in what they're saying publicly. Both appear to have a mutual respect for not only each other's game, but what the two have accomplished over the course of their storied careers.

The key to this matchup will be Hughes decision to either stand or attempt to bring the fight to the mat(t) (pun intended). As we've seen in his fights with GSP, Penn can be brought down and controlled by a bigger, stronger man. The problem is whether or not you can actually get him on his back. GSP's wrestling is probably the best in the game; Hughes' used to be, but isn't anymore. While it's still great, it's not at the same level it used to be. In addition, Hughes had improved remarkably on his feet, as shown in his fights with Royce Gracie and Ricardo Almeida.

The issue is whether or not he becomes too confident on his feet. Penn's boxing is excellent, and against a bigger, slower opponent who doesn't present a threat in terms of power, Penn could have his way with Hughes in the stand up. He's not facing a smaller, faster Frankie Edgar here, so I don't expect him to be outboxed like he was in his two losses to the champion. But what I do fear for Hughes is for this fight to end up much like Penn's fight against Sean Sherk. Sherk had also shown improved standup, and he wasn't able to drag Penn to the floor like he could less talented fighters. So Sherk tried to overpower Penn on his feet and was outboxed for three rounds before Penn put the rubber stamp on (T)KO win.

For Hughes to win, there's no doubt he'll need to find a way to put Penn on his back and control him there. If he does, expect something similar to his performance against Chris Lytle back at UFC 68, where he took Lytle down and basically held him there for three rounds. Penn's guard is tremendous, and even if he can't back to his feet, he'll try and threaten with submissions and offense from the bottom while trying to neutralize Hughes' offense. Because Hughes has been submitted by Penn before, I don't expect he'll go all out in fear of being caught again. But, that's if he can get Penn down, and for me, that's a major if.

Joe Lauzon v. George Sotiropoulos

Sotiropoulos has been plowing through opponents since his stint on TUF, where he was controversially knocked out by Tommy Speer in a semi-final bout. Sotiropoulos suffered an eye poke prior to taking the punch that put him out cold. But that was an exhibition, and he's undefeated at 6-0 in his UFC career, beating the likes of Kurt Pellegrino and Joe Stevenson. There seems to be a lot of hoopla behind him, and this will be a good test to see if it's warranted, or if he's the beneficiary of wins over strictly middle-tier opponents with bigger names than their actual games.

In Lauzon, we have a solid striker with unquestionable jiu-jitsu skills. He transitions from one submission to another in a seamless, flawless way that almost seems fluid and somewhat poetic. That's what makes him so good and so dangerous. But he is long and lean, and Sotiropoulos is more compact and powerful. So I think the course of the fight will be dictated by which fighter is able to handle the difference better. In other words, can Sotiropoulos use his size and strength to his advantage, or will Lauzon be able to nullify it? That's the question, and it's a big one, one that will ultimately determined which of these fighters is actually deserving of a spot in line for title contention.

Phil Davis v. Tim Boetsch

Davis is a prospect, but personally I'll leave it at that. I don't want to say he's a blue-chip, certainly not in the way I considered Jon "Bones" Jones before he legitimized himself as a title contender. Jones, by the way, will have a chance to solidify his stature against another blue-chip in Ryan Bader in February. But back to Davis, who is 3-0 in his young UFC career, and for the most part has look pretty impressive albeit against middle of the road talent, if that. He won a decision on former WEC Light Heavyweight Champion Brian Stann, but in case you haven't heard, "All-American" is dropping to middleweight to face Chris Leben on the New Year's card. That should say something.

Boetsch, meanwhile, fights like his nickname: "The Barbarian". Some of you may remember his mauling of David Heath back at UFC 81, when he tossed Heath around like a ragdoll. It was an incredible scene, and many thought Boetsch may be a force in the UFC until he met Matt Hamill, who silenced him inside of two rounds. Boetsch stepped out of the UFC for a brief three fight winning streak before returning with a lackluster win at UFC 117 over Todd Brown. He has good wrestling, and obviously a ton of strength.

The interesting dynamic of this fight is how Davis will stack up against Boetsch in terms of strength. Davis' wrestling is superior in terms of resume, and his striking is still evolving. If he can handle Boetsch's strength and get him to the mat, working from top position will probably be his best bet. If he keeps it standing in an attempt to display improved striking, it could be a dangerous affair for the up and coming prospect. He'll need to be cerebral and stick with what works. If Boetsch lures him into exchanges, or gets his hands and/or arms on him, he could employ some of that brute strength we saw in the Heath fight, and that could stop the prospect train in its tracks.

Gerald Harris v. Maiquel Jose Falcao Goncalves

Harris is the guy you saw on Sportscenter's Top 10 after slamming Dave Branch to near death at UFC 116. He's a talented guy who was the favorite to win TUF 7, but ran into a guy named Amir Sadollah. A lot of people did the same, and none of them won against the mma novice, so certainly it was nothing to hang his head about. But he's proven his worth with a three fight win streak inside the UFC, and a win Saturday will earn him another step up the ladder. He's still pretty far down, but an impressive win might earn him a couple steps.

His opponent is making his UFC debut, and I know two things: 1) He owns a 25-3 record; 2) He didn't impress me in this training video posted last month:

Here's the thing...he's obviously big, strong and very athletic, but it looks to me like he's not getting enough oxygen to his muscles. He looked fatigued, his strikes, although powerful, were somewhat slow and I anticipate may be predictable to a solid fighter. You have to be careful with guys that come into the UFC with inflated records. Jason Reinhardt made his UFC debut against Joe Lauzon with an 18-0 record, and Lauzon made him look like a training partner he uses to warm up. I sense we may see the same thing here. Goncalves is a guy that can dominate lesser opponents on the small shows, but in against a more competent fighter, even someone still on the rise like Harris, he may struggle. If Harris can avoid serious damage on the feet in the first round, and perhaps take this to the mat for a bit, I could see Goncalves tiring and breaking down. But Harris will need be cautious with his striking. The guy didn't get the name "Big Rig" because he drives one.

And now, onto the actual picks:

Rampage v. Machida

Besse: Rampage via (T)KO late in round 1 - everyone says Rampage won't catch up to him. Shogun did, why can't he?

Keefe: Rampage via (T)KO in round 2.

Hughes v. Penn

Besse: Penn via (T)KO in round 2 - Baby Jay slowly breaks down Hughes in round 1, avoids a late takedown and finishes in the 2nd.

Keefe: Penn via decision.

Lauzon v. Sotiropoulos

Besse: Lauzon via submission in round 3 - Lauzon survives some scary moments and pulls off a leg lock, potentially behind on the cards.

Keefe: Lauzon via decision.

Davis v. Boetsch

Besse: Davis via decision - Boetsch's strength and competence prevent Davis from the stoppage.

Keefe: Davis via submission in round 1.

Harris v. Goncalves

Besse: Harris via decision - Goncalves starts strong, but Harris survives with a takedown and tires out "Big Rig" for a strong decision victory.

Keefe: Harris via KO in round 2.

There you have it. We'll check in after the fights with results and see how both of us did in picking the winners. Enjoy what should be an exciting fight card in Detroit!

-Bess