It's been a while since I posted a thorough preview and in-depth predictions for a UFC event. I don't know if any of you will even read it or take stock in what I say, but I don't care. It's my blog (half of it, anyway).
Tonight is a pretty major PPV event for Zuffa and UFC. First and foremost is the return of GSP since his five round molestation of Thiago Alves. You'll remember that GSP injured a muscle in the groin area in the third round, yet continued to abuse and dominate the ATT standout in every phase of the game, particularly taking him down repeatedly and walking out of the Octagon that night with the Welterweight title and Alves' soul and dignity in hand.
His challenger is Dan Hardy, an outspoken, entertaining brawler from the UK who brings heavy hands and excellent boxing technique, but a paltry resume that has many fighters and fans alike questioning the validity of his title shot. He's a huge underdog, but UFC had the right idea utilizing its "UFC Primetime" series, a blueprint of HBO's highly acclaimed "24/7" program to hype the fight. It's worked, as Hardy has displayed he is taking this seriously and has seized the opportunity to not only hype the fight appropriately and skillfully, but add his own twist that intrigued many a fan: training with the last man to beat GSP in Matt Serra, a disciple of Renzo Gracie, who by the way assisted GSP in his training.
In addition, we have a heavyweight attraction with two of the premiere big men in the world going at it. Due to Brock Lesnar's battle with diverticulitis, UFC made the Frank Mir-Shane Carwin co-main event a five round bout for the interim Heavyweight title. Since Mir's loss to Lesnar at UFC 100, he has put on well over 20 pounds of muscle and bulked up so that he has to cut weight to make the limit. He's done this in working with former World's Strongest Man competitor Mark Philippi at the Philippi Sports Institute. The Olympic style lifting has done wonders for me, he appeared bigger, stronger and faster in his quick dismantling of Cheick Kongo at UFC 107 back in December 2009. He beat Kongo to the punch, landing a crippling left hand that left Kongo dazed on the mat. Mir quickly pursued his down opponent, ripping off several strikes before locking in a brutal guillotine that eventually left Kongo limp and unconscious on the Octagon floor for several minutes. It was beautiful display of technique across many phases of mixed martial arts, a true sign that Mir is on the right track.
For Carwin, he returns after a one year layoff since Gabriel Gonzaga ran into his meat truck of a hand and got flatlined in the process. Carwin brings an interesting skillset with his massive size, decorated wrestling background and heavy, heavy hands. Mir has dubbed Carwin a better version of Lesnar, and while it may be too early to make that claim, tonight will be a great test and excellent barometer for the engineer from Colorado. He's 11-0 with 11 stoppages, all in the first round, all within the first three minutes of the fight. His wrestling, striking and crippling ground and pound speak for itself. And in his fight against Gonzaga, he showed his ability to absorb some heavy strikes, weather a storm, get up off his back against a high level grappler and finish a fight in an instant...all in the same fight. The test will be how he fares defensively both on his feet and on the ground against a guy like Mir, a two-time UFC champion with a more complete skillset striking and grappling.
The third attraction was supposed to be a rematch of Jon Fitch and Thiago Alves until a CAT scan revealed an irregularity in Alves' brain. Let's hope he's okay and it's not career ending. Ben Saunders has stepped up to replace Alves, and this will be an incredible opportunity for the young fighter who brings devastating knees and muay thai into the bout with the former Purdue wrestling standout.
A solid card top to bottom with two amazing fights at the top of the list. Now onto the predictions:
Georges St. Pierre v. Dan HardyUFC Welterweight Title BoutLet's face it: St. Pierre may be the best fighter, pound for pound on the planet. His game has evolved to the point that he is fully competent and highly skilled in all phases. He brings a diverse striking skillset of punches and kicks that display his unbelievable athleticism. And if he gets uncomfortable on his feet against a dangerous striker? He can go to his wrestling, which may be as good as anyone's in mma. No one can stop his takedowns, and once he gets you down, even the best grapplers in the world are unable to neutralize his superb positioning, strength and conditioning to get back to their feet. He can submit from the top or finish you with strikes. And his penchant for dominating opponents over five full rounds means his cardio is top notch. The guy is a stud.
In Hardy, we have a man who is as dangerous a striker as you'll see in mma. His hands are fast, powerful and accurate, his boxing an aesthetically pleasing mix of technique and pure violence. If he puts his hands on you, it could mark the beginning of the end, if he hasn't already knocked you out cold (ask Rory Markham). But while he's displayed a competent ground game and takedown defense against the likes of Marcus Davis and Mike Swick, it doesn't simulate the high level wrestling that GSP is bringing to tonight's fight. And therein lies the rub. Hardy worked with the aforementioned Serra on his guard, positioning and overall grappling to prepare for GSP's ground attack. While Serra is the last man to beat GSP, he did it on his feet. And the last time Serra went to the ground with GSP, he was seen tapping out to the knees to the body. So I don't think that will have much of a difference in tonight's fight.
Prediction: Hardy may create some harrowing moments early in the fight. But this will resemble GSP's last several fights. Some diverse, technical boxing early on, working the jab and welcoming his opponent to get comfortable on his feet before dropping levels and securing a takedown, which is where it will stay until the end of the round. You can't tell me Hardy is any bigger or stronger than Alves, so I don't see him doing much better in terms of getting back to his feet. The only wildcard is Hardy has nothing to lose here, a potential upset hero looking to shock the world; it's the kind of fight you almost wish Gus Johnson was commentating for. But it won't happen. GSP is focused on establishing his legacy as the greatest welterweight ever, and he will continue that process with an absolute clinic tonight.
St. Pierre wins via (T)KO stoppage due to strikes in the 2nd roundFrank Mir vs. Shane CarwinInterim UFC Heavyweight Title BoutThis will be a tremendous test for both men, and the winner will be handsomely rewarded with the opportunity to unify the titles with Lesnar this summer. There will be a couple interesting dynamics to follow in this fight. First will be the striking aspect: how does Mir's fluid movement and diverse combinations work against Carwin's questionable defense and can Carwin land that big shot on the button and put Mir out cold? And on the ground: if Carwin lands in Mir's guard, can his power and ground and pound overshadow any improvements, if any, that Mir has made in defending from his back, or can Mir land a submission to end the fight?
Prediction: Both men will have their moments in this fight, and I don't think we'll question that either is still at the top of the heap when all is said and done. Mir has a more diverse artillery on his feet, and the strength and weight gain, without the expense of his speed and athleticism, have done wonders. Carwin brings serious power and wrestling to this fight, but I think Mir's technique and experience, as well as his motivation to fight Lesnar for a third time, will prevail. But I won't be upset if Carwin wins, he's a likeable guy that I'd enjoy watching fight Lesnar.
Mir wins via submission (d'Arce choke) in the 2nd roundJon Fitch vs. Ben SaundersA dangerous fight for both men. For Fitch, taking on an opponent like Saunders on short notice is brutal. He's hungry, has nothing to lose and will throw everything but the kitchen sink at him in an effort to win the fight. For Saunders, he takes on a guy who many feel is the #2 or #3 welterweight in the UFC right now. A man whose only loss in the organization was to the guy fighting in the main event tonight.
Prediction: Everyone knows where this fight is going...to the ground. Fitch will take Saunders down early and often to avoid any danger on his feet. He was training for Alves, another accomplished striker, but someone who inflicts damage with his hands and feet, not in the clinch with his knees. With that type of attack in question and unknown to Fitch, it's best to eliminate the grey area and get where he is comfortable and in control, in the guard effectively working his ground and pound. Saunders should be applauded for stepping in and taking this fight, but he won't be good enough to thwart Fitch's superior wrestling.
Fitch wins via unanimous decisionKurt Pellegrino vs. Fabricio CamoesPellegrino via unanimous decisionJim Miller vs. Mark BocekMiller via (T)KO stoppage in the 3rd roundNate Diaz vs. Rory MarkhamDiaz via submission (guillotine choke) in the 2nd roundRicardo Almeida vs. Matt BrownAlmeida via submission (kimura) in the 1st roundRodney Wallace vs. Jared HammanHamman via (T)KO due to strikes in the 2nd roundRousimar Palhares vs. Tomasz DrwalDrwal via KO (punch) in the 1st roundMatthew Riddle vs. Greg SotoSoto via submission (rear naked choke) in the 2nd roundThere you have it. I'll check back in tomorrow with the results and see how I did. Enjoy the fights.
-Bess
