What's Next For the UFC Heavyweight Division?

Cain Velasquez sits atop the Heavyweight Division in the UFC following his impressive victory over former champion Brock Lesnar. Cain will defend his newly won title vs. the #1 contender Junior Dos Santos. That is what we know. But what about the rest of the top-tier heavyweights including former champions and interim champs. It's as head scratching as a recent M. Knight Shyamalan movie.

Brock Lesnar, Shane Carwin, Frank Mir, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, and Roy Nelson are all Top 10 Heavyweights in the world of mixed martial arts, and after the recent news that Carwin is injured and had to pull out of his fight with Nelson at UFC 125, all five of these fighters are looking for opponents. Here's a fighter-by-fighter analysis of what could be next. At the end, I will tell you how I would map out the heavyweights.

Brock Lesnar:
Lost UFC title, after 2 defenses, at UFC 121 last weekend to Cain Velasquez. Lesnar suffered a serious cut to the face, just a nasty cut, and could be out at least 6 months to recover. What do you do with Lesnar? Is he 1 fight away from getting another title shot? Some of the options for Lesnar include a trilogy bout with Frank Mir or depending on how serious his injuries are, wait for the loser of Velasquez/Dos Santos. It's difficult to project as Lesnar could be out until at least April.

Shane Carwin:
Carwin was set to be in the co-main event at UFC 125 vs. Roy Nelson. He was forced out of the fight due to injury. Carwin said that an MRI revealed a serious injury, if surgery is NOT needed he is out 8-12 weeks, but if it is required he would be out even longer. Bad news for a guy who just fought for the title and actually won the 1st round against Lesnar. A win over Nelson would have vaulted him back up into contention, but now he must wait.

Frank Mir:
Mir was scheduled to face Big Nog at UFC 119, but an injury to Nogueira allowed Mirko Cro Cop to fill in and get his name in lights. (UFC 119: Mir vs. Cro Cop). It wasn't the most entertaining fight, at all, but Mir came out on top. Mir seems to have a number of options here. The aforementioned trilogy fight with Lesnar, a re-match with Carwin, the originally scheduled re-match with Big Nog, and even Brendan Scaub (coming off a win over Gabe Gonzaga) has called out Mir.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira:
As stated above Big Nog was scratched from the UFC 119 bout with Mir due to injury. Nogueira has not seen a lot of action over the past couple of years, he is also 1-2 in his last 3 with losses to the current champ Velasquez and Mir. You have to wonder how much Nogueira has left in the tank. With his style he can be dangerous for any opponent, but he has taken so much damage in his career.

Roy Nelson:
Nelson, the only guy on this list who seems to be ready to go in the next couple of months. After losing to Dos Santos in a #1 contender bout, he immediately got another chance to prove himself when Joe Silva scheduled him to face Shane Carwin. But now Nelson must wait for a replacement.

If I were in charge of the booking for the UFC, this is how I would schedule the top heavyweights. (Dates of fights all TBD based on length of injuries)

Champ Cain Velasquez vs. Challenger Junior Dos Santos. That was easy.

Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir, do the trilogy now. With injuries you never know when you'll get a chance to do it, and it wouldn't be exciting if it was 5 years from now a la Liddell vs. Ortiz.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Brendan Schaub. Schaub wanted Mir, but he should get the guy scheduled to face the former champ at UFC 119. Schaub passed his test with a win over Gonzaga, this would be even more impressive and put him squarely in the division's Top 10.

Roy Nelson vs. Ben Rothwell. It might look like something you would see at the Double Duce, but these guys are legit. Rothwell last fought at UFC 115 and picked up a win over Gilbert Yvel, so he could be ready to step right in for Carwin at UFC 125.

Shane Carwin vs. Velasquez/Dos Santos Loser. Especially if Carwin is going to be sidelined for a long time, he can await the loser of the title fight. If Shane comes back much sooner give him someone like Kongo, Cro Cop, or Gonzaga.

What matches in the heavyweight division do you want to see? Leave your thoughts in the comment section below.


-Keefe

Throwdown Podcast: Tim Sylvia

Rich Keefe had a chance to talk with former 2-time UFC Heavyweight Champion Tim "The Maine-iac" Sylvia, as he prepares for his May 21st fight against 5-time World's Strongest Man Mariusz Pudzianowski at Moosin: God of Martial Arts in Worcester, MA.

Here is the Throwdown Podcast: Tim Sylvia

(Courtesy of BostonThrowdown.com)

Tim Sylvia (25-6)

Notables wins: Andrei Arlovski (2), Brandon Vera, Jeff Monson, Ricco Rodriguez, Mike Whitehead (2), Ben Rothwell

Notable losses: Fedor Emelianenko, Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera, Randy Couture, Andrei Arlovski, Frank Mir

The Sports Brief's MMA Rankings (9/9/08)

Once again this is the rankings for all of MMA, but just for the weight classes recognized by the UFC. Not a lot has happened in the ring or octagon since the last rankings besides last weekend’s UFC 88, however many exciting match ups have been scheduled/ rumored for the rest of 2008. Also with so many fighters moving up or down in weight classes (i.e. Anderson Silva, Rich Franklin, Brandon Vera, B.J. Penn, etc.), where do you put them? Besse and I have stated that a fighter must be at least booked to fight in the same division for 2 fights in a row to officially move divisions. Let’s see how the top 10’s look entering football season…

Heavyweight:

1. Fedor Emelianenko
2. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
3. Randy Couture
4. Andrei Arlovski
5. Josh Barnett
6. Tim Sylvia
7. Fabricio Werdum
8. Alistair Overeem
9. Frank Mir
10. Brock Lesnar

Ben Rothwell, Heath Herring, Chiek Kongo, Gabriel Gonzaga, Aleksander Emelianenko, Mirko Cro Cop

Fedor is hurt and will miss the 2nd Affliction show. But how about these fights still to come in the next 2-3 months: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Frank Mir (December), Andrei Arlovski vs. Josh Barnett (October), and of course the return of the UFC Champ Randy Couture vs. Brock Lesnar (November). And before all of those match ups is one I’m really looking forward to. The on again, off again fight between Alistair Overeem and Mirko Cro Cop is back on, and happening on September 23rd as part of the Dream 6 card. Two former Pride stars going head to head, should be great.

Light Heavyweight:

1. Forrest Griffin
2. Quinton Jackson
3. Lyoto Machida
4. Wanderlei Silva
5. Rashad Evans
6. Maurcio ‘Shogun’ Rua
7. Chuck Liddell
8. Thiago Silva
9. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou
10. Keith Jardine

Babalu Sobral, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Tito Ortiz, Vladimir Matyushenko, Brandon Vera

The only shake up since July’s rankings is right here in the ultra competitive Light Heavyweight division. Rashad Evans (prev. 10th) KTFO of Liddell (prev. 3rd) vaults him up to 5th in our poll. Sugar won’t leap frog everyone, after all his previous highlights were a draw to Tito Ortiz and a win over Michael Bisping who is now a middleweight. Evans now gets the title shot with Forrest in a TUF winners show down. Rumors are circulating that Liddell wants to fight Anderson Silva. Really? Chuck is 1-3 last 4 fights with devastating KOs by Rampage and Evans, a decision loss to Jardine, and a decision win against Wanderlei. His last knockout was back in 2006 vs. Tito, who Dana White says isn’t a good fighter anymore. I would never say anything bad about Liddell in fear that he may read it, but hey Dana everything you’ve said about Tito in the cage is coming back to you in the form of the Iceman. And as for Tito, looked like he was headed to Affliction, then EliteXC, now who knows?

Middleweight:

1. Anderson Silva
2. Matt Lindland
3. Dan Henderson
4. Rich Franklin
5. Paulo Filho
6. Cung Le
7. Robbie Lawler
8. Yushin Okami
9. Nathan Marquardt
10. Frank Trigg

Patrick Cote, Frank Shamrock, Kazuo Misaki, Yoshihiro Akiyama, Thales Leites, Chris Leben. Michael Bisping, Ricardo Almeida, Demian Maia, Gegard Mousasi

Dream 6 on September 23rd features the middleweight grand prix. Not big names but great fighters like Gegard Mousasi set to compete. Rich Franklin beat Matt Hamill at 205, should be interesting to see if he stays up there or comes back down to 185. I’d love to see him fight Dan Henderson, but after a solid win on the same card, Hendo is thinking he can take down A. Silva if given another chance. Problem is, Silva is fighting Patrick Cote coming up then I wouldn’t be surprised if he fights Liddell or another LHW. Also Paulo Filho vs. Chael Sonnen 2 has been pushed back from September to November 5th.

This seems like the best place also to say RIP Evan Tanner. The former UFC middleweight champ was found dead in California. He was 37.

Welterweight:

1. Georges St. Pierre
2. Jon Fitch
3. Jake Shields
4. Thiago Alves
5. Josh Koscheck
6. Diego Sanchez
t-7. Matt Hughes
t-7. Matt Serra
9. Karo Parisyan
10. Carlos Condit

Nick Thompson, Mike Swick, Marcus Davis, Drew Fickett, Jay Hieron

The super fight that everyone is waiting for on Super Bowl weekend will affect the welterweight and lightweight divisions. GSP vs. Penn II. Get excited. Thiago Alves will meet Diego Sanchez next month as well with a title shot looming for the winner. Not sure who Fitch will fight in his first fight back from losing to St. Pierre. Karo was a late scratch from UFC 88. And let’s book Hughes vs. Serra so we can break our tie for 7th here. It’s still amazing to me that guys like Matt Hughes and Chuck Liddell can look so unbeatable, and then in a short time get absolutely worked. That’s the nature of the beast, as they say.

Lightweight:

1. BJ Penn
2. Takanori Gomi
3. Eddie Alverez
4. Joachim Hansen
5. Shinya Aoki
6. JZ Cavalcante
7. Josh Thomson
8. Tatsuya Kawajiri
9. Sean Sherk
10. Gilbert Melendez

Kenny Florian, KJ Noons, Nick Diaz, Victor Ribero, Joe Stevenson, Roger Huerta, Frankie Edgar

As you can see many of the best lightweights fight outside of the UFC. Two of their best, however, will meet in November as Kenny Florian squares off against Joe Stevenson. Ken Flo probably deserves a title shot after beating Huerta, but since Penn is fighting GSP, he doesn’t want to sit around a wait. You have to appreciate that.

Pound 4 Pound

1. Anderson Silva
2. Fedor Emelianenko
3. Georges St. Pierre
4. BJ Penn
5. Urijah Faber
6. Miguel Torres
7. Takanori Gomi
8. Forrest Griffin
9. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
10. Quinton Jackson

The Sports Brief breaks down this weekend's MMA cards

The weekend that MMA fans have long awaited for is finally here. In what was supposed to be the debut of Affliction’s fighting organization on the main stage, is now a competition between Free UFC fights on Spike and the stacked Affliction card on PPV. We here at the Sports Brief will take you through each and every fight going on this weekend. Rich Keefe covers the Affliction card, with his take on the UFC main event, while Tristan Besse breaks down UFC Fight Night 14 and also weighs in on Fedor vs. Sylvia. Rather than ripping on Dana White for hurting the sport, we’ll just give you our picks.

Affliction: Banned

Preliminary bouts:

J.J. Ambrose def. Mike Pyle via submission in the 1st round
Aleksander Emelianenko def. Paul Buentello via decision
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira def. Edwin Dewees via submission in the 1st round
Vitor Belfort def. Terry Martin via (T)KO in the 3rd round
Ray Lizama def. Justin Levens via decision
Mark Hominick def. Savant Young via (T)KO in the 2nd round

Only on PPV:

Babalu Sobral vs. Mike Whitehead

Babalu is one of the best submission fighters in the game. In his 29 victories, 16 have come via submission, including a guillotine choke on Shogun Rua. He has faced the best fighters in the world including Fedor, Chuck Liddell, Dan Henderson, Kevin Randleman, and the aforementioned Shogun. Whitehead on the other hand enters the ring with a 12 fight win streak. He’s fought a lot at heavyweight in his career, but this one is at 205. Babalu’s ground game will be too much for him, and there will no lucky 13 for Whitehead.

Babalu def. Whitehead via submission in the 2nd round

Matt Lindland vs. Fabio Negao

Matt “The Law” Lindland may be Anderson Silva’s toughest test at 185, but we’re not going to see that fight, thank you Dana White. In his last 11 fights Lindland has lost twice, to Fedor and Rampage, not bad. But he has not had a fight since April of 2007. There will be some ring rust for sure. Negao never fought in the UFC or Pride and hasn’t faced anyone like Lindland. He could really put himself on the map with this huge upset, but I don’t see that happening.

Lindland def. Negao via (T)KO in the 2nd round

Josh Barnett vs. Pedro Rizzo

Two guys here who each fought Randy Couture for the heavyweight title during his first reign. Rizzo could never beat The Natural while Barnett did win, but was disqualified after testing positive for steroids. It’s also a rematch as this two men squared off in the UFC octagon back in February of 2001. Rizzo earned a KO victory in the 2nd. Pedro “The Rock” last saw action in the fall of ’07 while Barnett is 2-0 in ’08. I think Barnett has a lot to prove and would love to face the winner of the Fedor fight at the next Affliction show. Surprisingly Barnett and Fedor never crossed paths in Pride. Barnett split two fights with current UFC interim heavy weight champ Big Nog, lost 3 times to Cro Cop, and defeated Mark Hunt and Aleksander Emelianenko.

Barnett def. Rizzo via submission in the 1st round

Andrei Arlovski vs. Ben Rothwell

Rothwell is riding an impressive 13 fight win streak, including all 9 of his fights in the IFL. Equally impressive will be his near 25 pound weight advantage over the Pit Bull. Arlovski just another disgruntled former UFC champion and star turned new Affliction poster boy. After beating Fabricio Werdum, Arlovski has 1 fight remaining on his contract, so Dana put him on the under card where he beat Jake O’Brien. Way to treat a former champ. Tons of intriguing match ups in the heavyweight division here in Affliction, and with a great performance Andrei could find himself headlining the next event.

Arlovski def. Rothwell via (T)KO in the 3rd round

Fedor Emelianenko vs. Tim Sylvia

This is it. Fedor is fighting a top of the line heavyweight for the first time since back in December of 2006, when he submitted Mark Hunt. Fedor has just 1 loss in his amazing career and it was in 2000, just his 3rd pro fight. The list of fighters he has beat is long and incredible, (Ricardo Arona, Babalu, Heath Herring, Big Nog (2), Mark Coleman (2), Kevin Randleman, Mirko Cro Cop, Mark Hunt, and Matt Lindland.) This guy is for real.

Sylvia’s last fight was for the UFC’s interim heavyweight championship against Big Nog. He lost by submission, but it was one of the more entertaining fights by Big Tim in quite a while. He’s even admitted to just trying to not lose fights, thus watching him just push around a smaller opponent for 3-5 rounds and raising his arm to a chorus of boos. Well know he knows he is fighting the best. Really doesn’t have a thing to lose here.

Affliction needs this to be an awesome “Fight of the Year” type of fight that people will be talking about long after it’s over. Sylvia is tough to read. He could deliver that kind of fight, or he could just lumber around the ring until getting caught in a submission. I think it will be somewhere in between. It’ll be exciting, but ultimately Sylvia will get caught, and lose via submission like he has against other great ground fighters like Big Nog and Frank Mir.

Fedor def. Sylvia via submission in the 2nd round

UFC Fight Night 14

Preliminary bouts:

Shannon Gugerty def. Dale Hartt via submission in the 1st round
Brad Blackburn def. James Giboo via (T)KO in the 2nd round
Nate Loughran def. Johnny Rees via decision
Rory Markham def. Brodie Farber via (T)KO in the 3rd round
Tim Credeur def. Cale Yarbrough via submission in the 2nd round

Only on SpikeTV:

Jesse Taylor v. CB Dolloway

This is basically a match pitting two outstanding wrestlers with highly credible collegiate resumes against one another. That being said, my thought from TUF7 was that Jesse Taylor was a one-dimensional fighter. He was too big and too strong for anyone to handle his wrestling, and he essentially held people down while inflicting enough ground and pound to prevent the referee from standing it back up. CB Dolloway is just as strong a wrestler, so I expect his takedown defense to be very technical and effective in avoiding Taylor’s wrath. Dolloway should be able to keep this on the feet long enough to land some strikes and earn a 29-28 decision. I think at some point Taylor will get him down and ride out a round.

CB Dolloway by unanimous decision.

Anthony Johnson v. Kevin Burns

Has anyone else seen “Rumble” Johnson’s two wins via KO in the UFC? They were both exciting, and he reminds me of a Melvin Guillard at welterweight. Kevin Burns scored a shocking submission victory over Roan Carneiro in his UFC debut, but “Rumble” seems to have a bit more ring acumen than Guillard. If he puts Burns on his back, he’ll have the ref stand him right back up. I think Johnson will absolutely light up the arena on Saturday night with a sensational KO that elevates him up the rankings in a flash. If he blows away Burns like I expect him too, I’d actually encourage Joe Silva to pit him against Josh Koscheck and see where that one goes.

Anthony Johnson via KO in 1st round

Cain Velasquez v. Jake O’Brien

Interesting match-up here. Velasquez is being touted as the second coming of Christ in the heavyweight division. In fact his trainer has been quoted as saying he could defeat Randy Couture RIGHT NOW and needs only a year before he can take out Fedor. Wow. That’s some mighty high praise. O’Brien, meanwhile, seems to be a UFC whipping boy. He was brought in to be a cake walk for Heath Herring, but shocked a live SpikeTV audience. Then he was injured, then later brought in as an opponent for former champ Andrei Arlovski. That went as planned, and O’Brien was released again, only to be brought back as an opponent for Velasquez. The little I’ve seen of Cain is impressive. This guy is great on his feet and also has a solid wrestling pedigree. O’Brien won’t have the tools to compete, as he’s a one-dimensional guy with his wrestling.

Cain Velasquez by (T)KO in the 1st round

Hermes Franca v. Frankie Edgar

Edgar is coming off his first professional loss, a bout in which he was outwrestled and outstruck by Gray Maynard. Franca, meanwhile, returns from his suspension after testing positive for steroids in the same title bout that Sherk tested positive. How about that! Edgar is a wrestler who pounds out decision victories, while Franca is a tested veteran with 11 submission wins to his credit. Look for Edgar to take this fight to the ground, only to have Franca catch him in a submission.

Hermes Franca via 2nd round submission

Brandon Vera v. Reese Andy

The light heavyweight debut for Vera and the UFC debut for Andy. I don’t think the weight cut will be a factor for Vera, as he walks around at 225 and fights around 215. He’s just so athletic and solid with his striking that he was able to hang with the heavyweights. Andy, meanwhile, is just a name to me. I’ve never seen the guy fight nor do I claim to know anything about him, except what his Fight Finder page on Sherdog tells me. He’s an IFL lifer with a bunch of decision wins. I think Vera will make a statement here, but I also don’t know if his stay in this division will last long. He wants to avenge his loss to Verdum, and with Frank Mir getting a title shot – a guy that Vera destroyed – he has some issues to resolve with the heavyweights.

Vera by decision

Main Event

Anderson Silva v. James Irvin

The light heavyweight debut for Anderson Silva, as well! Imagine if they had Silva and Vera debut AGAINST each other. I should have Joe Silva’s job. Anyway, Irvin is a dangerous striker, no doubt about it, but he’s fighting arguably the most technical striker in the world, pound for pound. This is the middleweight champ who destroyed a former 205-pounder (Rich Franklin) twice, as well as Dan Henderson, who cut from 205 to contend for the UFC crown. Silva is moving up in weight, and while I don’t know how much stronger he’ll be because of it; his striking will be quicker than Irvin’s. And if this goes to the ground, lest we forget that Silva is a dangerous submission guy with a black belt in jiu-jitsu. Irvin, meanwhile, just blew away one of the more feared strikers in the division in Houston Alexander. He finished “The Assassin” in a record-tying eight seconds, which is impressive considering Alexander seemed to have a strong chin up to that point. Ten of Irvin’s wins have come by some form of a KO, so he’s definitely game. This will be explosive for sure.

Silva by T(KO) late in the 1st round

My take on the Main Event of Affliction: Banned

Fedor is the pound for pound best on some experts rankings, while Sylvia is the former UFC champ who has come under fire lately for his passive nature in the ring. As Keefe said, he’s admitted to just trying not to lose fights. But I was actually impressed with Big Tim in his last fight against Nogueira for the interim UFC Heavyweight title. He was aggressive, controlled the fight on the feet, and was dominating the Big Nog until he got caught with a sick submission in the 3rd round. Sylvia has a distinct height and reach advantage, much like he did against Randy Couture back in March of 2007. But he’s a different fighter.

Fedor, meanwhile, has been inactive lately having fought twice in ’06 and twice in ’07. This is first tilt in ’08. His last win was against that giant Hong Man Choi, who also happened to be a tomato can. He fought three name opponents prior to that (Lindland, Coleman and Mark Hunt), but Lindland fought up two weight classes, Coleman is overrated and Hunt is a K-1 guy. Sylvia is clearly his toughest test in a long, long time.

I think Sylvia will come out much in the same way he did against Nog, using his jab and aggressively mixing in nice combinations trying to pepper Fedor. Sylvia has a great, great sprawl, and his long, lanky build causes problems for guys on top of him. If he knocks down Fedor, I don’t think he makes the same mistake as he did against Nog. He’ll certainly try and finish the fight, but if Fedor comes to and regains his composure, look for Sylvia to back off and stand it back up. I’ll be shocked if he gets submitted again. I’m picking the upset…

Sylvia via decision

Keefe’s take on the main event at UFC Fight Night 14

Anderson Silva has just decimated the middleweight division. Hendo, Franklin, Leben, it doesn’t matter. Brining the Spider up to fight some of the guys from the loaded light heavyweight division makes some sense to me. And why not have this spectacle go up against the Affliction card. Well I’m not sold on James Irvin. Sure he has knockout power, but he is not a Top 10 guy in the division, and maybe not Top 15. If Silva fought a Soko, Rashad Evans, Thiago Silva, Wanderlei, Jardine, or even Vera as Besse mentioned, I would be tempted to watch the UFC live. But I’m not. Silva should smoke this guy like everyone else since he’s stepped into the octagon.

Silva def. Irvin via (T)KO in the 1st round