It's been over a week since UFC 196 so I know we're late the game here. I have a full time job, so don't give me shit.
That being said, I feel like every journalist, blogger, and fan boy under the sun has written a recap and given their hot take on what the fuck happened. So I won't bore you with a traditional recap, nor will I spend this entire blog pontificating about how much money the UFC lost or why or why not McGregor and Holm should've taken the fights they did.
Did the UFC lose out on some massive PPV blockbusters? Of course they did. Had McGregor won it would've added even more allure to a showdown with RDA for the 155-lb strap or set up an even bigger fight with Robbie Lawler at UFC 200 for the 170-lb belt. For Holm, the rematch with Rousey was always the big money fight. Problem is, no one knew when Rousey was coming back. So yea, those are out the window after the massive upsets, but I actually think it positions the UFC even better b/c it's opened up and entirely new set of fights that bring a whole new level of intrigue and theater to the game. Here's my list of the fights I want to see coming out of last weekend's card - within each, you'll also get a sense of where my head is at for future matchups and how these help build for that:
Conor McGregor vs. Jose Aldo 2
After losing his test at 170, the logical thing for McGregor to do is return home to 145 and defend his belt. It gives him a chance to reassert himself as the king and fire back up the hype train on his way to another history-making fight.
With apologies to Frankie Edgar, who is incredibly deserving of a fight against McGregor, he's just not a big enough draw for the casual fan. For hardcore fans like myself and Keefe, we would LOVE a McGregor-Edgar fight to see how Frankie's movement, volume, chin, and wrestling match up against the 145-lb champ. But half the world saw McGregor dribbling Aldo's head on the canvas back in December, and a rematch against the former champ, who held the title for 10 FUCKING YEARS, is big money.
Should McGregor win, it sets up another move up in weight to 155. Should he lose, we have ourselves a trilogy fight that will be incredibly important for McGregor and the UFC.
Rafael dos Anjos vs. Nate Diaz 2
These two fought back in December 2014. Diaz hadn't fought in a year and RDA was coming off two stoppage wins over Jason High and former champ Ben Henderson. RDA won a decision and went on to take the belt from Anthony Pettis in his next fight. This is as good a time as any to book the rematch as both men are at peak status - Diaz coming off the huge stoppage of McGregor on less than two weeks notice, and RDA has won five straight including his recent 1st round stoppage over the tough Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone.
I love this fight for two reasons: 1) both guys are extremely marketable right now for the reasons listed above and 2) it becomes an elimination fight of sorts for the winner should McGregor take care of business against Aldo as I proposed above. Imagine the money they'd make if both McGregor and Diaz win - Diaz defending the strap as McGregor moves up and they fight at 155 vs. the 170-lb limit from UFC 196. And if both guys don't win? So what - there's still a lot to be gained in terms of matches to make from there. But if you aren't making fights with potential match-ups in mind, I don't know what the fuck you're doing.
Miesha Tate vs. Holly Holm 2
These two need to mix it up again. Holm was likely winning that fight but Tate's grappling in the 2nd had people on the edge of their seats, and her comeback win in the 5th was incredible, especially without it ended watching Holm punching the very thing she ran out of: air.
A lot of people are talking about the trilogy with Rousey, but I think this would be a mistake for a few reasons: 1) Rousey has dominated Tate is their previous two fights; 2) Rousey was talking about not coming back until end of this year - suddenly she's chomping at the bit w/ Tate as the champ because of my first point which seems so fucking disingenuous to me; and 3) I still think Holm-Rousey 2 is the bigger fight, but for the title. Holm can beat Tate with a better game plan - read: don't get taken down in the 5th round up 3-1 on the cards again - and set up the blockbuster rematch. Plus, keeping Rousey on the sidelines a bit longer while we wait for the results of this rematch makes us long even more. Absence makes the heart grow fonder. Don't you ever forget that.
In terms of when these happen, I'd love to see them all on the UFC 200 card in July. They want it to be huge, and putting these three title fights on one card would do the trick. And all of the participants should be cleared and able to get in a full camp by then. The variable in all this is Robbie Lawler. He's not booked for UFC 197, 198, or 199. MacDonald and Thompson fight in June, so you can count those guys out. Thus, you have to assume they're either talking with Condit about a rematch or trying to lure GSP out of retirement to headline 200 which would be massive. But I also don't think they'd want to stack the card with four title fights.
That being said, I do think if you make the first two fights noted above, they have to be on the same card. It helps align camps for a future fight and being able to build/promote that fight throughout the night and via post-fight interviews would be good for business. Plus McGregor is built for that UFC 200 card. So that drops the Tate/Holm fight out, which they could have a main or co-main in August. I think UFC 198 in May, as a co-main to Werdum-Miocic could be too quick of a turnaround, and UFC 199 in June already has two title fights with Rockhold-Weidman 2 and Cruz-Faber 3.
So that's where I'm at. We've got a great lineup of UFC events over the next few months and still a lot to be sorted out with some of the big names mentioned above. Should be fun to see how it all shakes out. And don't forget Hunt vs. Mir this weekend - both guys are pretty far back in the title picture at this point, but Hunt always brings the thunder and Mir showed his ability to take out a big puncher in his fight against Todd Duffee, so I'm expecting fireworks in this one. Prediction: Hunt via manslaughter due to punch.
