The Sports Brief with Besse and Keefe: UFC 196 McGregor vs. Diaz Fight Predictions

Yesterday the main and co-main events were made official as all participants hit the scales, and made weight, for their respective fights tonight at UFC 196. And with that come fight predictions from The Sports Brief's self-proclaimed, resident MMA ~~expert~~ blogger. Keefe tweeted out our predictions for the two headliners last night, but below is an analysis as well as a bonus breakdown from tonight's card.

UFC 196 Picks:
Besse: McGregor RD1 KO, Holm RD2 TKO
Keefe: McGregor RD2 KO, Holm decision
— The Sports Brief (@TheSportsBrief) March 4, 2016

Main Event: Conor McGregor (C-FTW) vs. Nate Diaz (#5 LW)
As Mystic Mac has said himself, one goes down, another steps in. It's the fourth time in eight UFC fights McGregor has seen a late fill-in due to injury, though the last two have gotten much more publicity due to the enormity of both fights. First it was Aldo dropping out of their title bout at 189 and Mendes stepping in. Now it's dos Anjos bowing out of what could've been a historical moment - McGregor vying to become the first UFC fighter to hold two belts simultaneously - and Diaz stepping in.

One of the biggest challenges for a fighter stepping in on short notice is cardio - we saw this with Mendes as he took McGregor down in the 1st and seemed to be positioned well, only to gas in the 2nd where he ultimately fell due to strikes. But with Diaz, I'm less concerned for a couple reasons - a) he and his brother typically stay in relatively good shape between fights. Though Nate is the big triathlete, Nate is known to train with him. And b) I don't see this fight going beyond the 3rd round as both men love to strike, and strike well.

McGregor will obviously need to combat Diaz's reach and heavy volume of striking, particularly the jab that allows him to keep opponents on the outside, in his range, and break down them down over the course of the fight. Once Diaz starts putting combinations together and following up the jab with a straight and some hooks, the cumulative toll of the shots makes up for what Diaz make lack in one-punch power.

But McGregor's movement, particularly under the tutelage of Ido Portal, has made him a significantly improved striker who does possess the one-punch knockout power. Just ask Aldo.

So you've got two guys who love to strike and motherfuck anyone within an earshot, and that'll certainly give us fireworks. But where things particularly interest me is on the ground. I don't anticipate McGregor taking the fight to the floor - Diaz working from his back is a magician. Nor do I think Diaz tries to take McGregor to the mat due mostly to arrogance but also because I think McGregor's strength of wrestling defense will help negate that. I go back to the movement, however, and whether McGregor at any point throws an exotic type of kick or movement that misses the mark and leaves him off balance. It happened to Weidman in his fight against Rockhold, led to Rockhold gaining control on the ground, and was the beginning of a long sequence of punishment that carried into the 4th round before Weidman succumb to strikes. In this case, I think McGregor needs to be cautious of finding himself in a similar position, involuntarily taking the fight to the mat where Diaz suddenly has an opening to put his jiu-jitsu to work. I think it would end quickly if this happens. But let me clear in that I don't necessarily foresee this happening, I just think this is a possible scenario in which the fight does in fact go to the mat where Diaz holds a HUGE advantage.

In terms of the outcome, I'm going McGregor by 1st round KO. I think these guys will feel each other out for the 30 seconds or so with pawing jabs and feints, then they'll go to work and it will be fireworks. I see McGregor utilizing the movement to create an angle that opens up a big shot, a left uppercut or overhand right, that stuns Diaz before the featherweight champ pounces and puts an end to the fight.

McGregor by 1st round KO

Co-Main Event: Holly Holm (C) vs. Miesha Tate (#2 BTW)

I love Miesha Tate. Everything about her except for the nickname Cupcake. And as much as she claims she's the perfect opponent to defeat Holm, I actually think she'll play right into her hands moreso than Ronda Rousey did. Tate's game is all about aggressiveness and turning it into a dogfight. There's a reason that, before Holm stopped Rousey, she had given the former champ the most problems and lasted longest inside the cage with her. She's tough, durable, and fights with a reckless abandon that creates matchup problems.

But I said it before the Holm-Rousey fight and will say it again - Holm's striking is far superior than anyone the women's side of the sport has ever seen. She's a former multi-time boxing and kickboxing champ. And she has excellent takedown defense as we saw against Rousey. I'd go so far as to say she's a better version of Chuck Liddell was in his time b/c her striking is crisper and sharper - but the skill set is the same.

I think Tate comes out and looks to make it ugly, and while her striking might be more polished than Rousey's, she'll get picked apart much like Ronda did. Holm will use her movement and angles to avoid the clinch, and her strength to keep Tate off her for extended periods. While I don't see this one ending as quickly as the main event, I also don't believe we go to a 3rd round. Tate will make it fun while it lasts, but by the end of the 2nd she'll be fading from the cumulative toll of Holm's work before combination staggers her to the floor where Holm follows with more punishment before the ref steps in to save the challenger.

Despite the loss, it won't change how I feel about her.

Holm by 2nd round (T)KO stoppage due to strikes

Gian Villante (#13 LHW) vs. Ilir Latifi (NR)

There are three reasons I'm even bothering to weigh in here: 1) I love Villante from Weidman's camp during Embedded leading up to the fight against Rockhold. 2) Villante had a sick KO of Anthony Perosh in his last fight.