#DORK 34: Hardy

NBA Rising Stars Challenge Rosters

U.S.
Jordan Clarkson, Los Angeles Lakers
Rodney Hood, Utah Jazz
Zach LaVine, Minnesota Timberwolves
Nerlens Noel, Philadelphia 76ers
Jahil Okafor, Philadelphia 76ers
Jabari Parker, Milwaukee Bucks
Elfrid Payton, Orlando Magic
D'Angelo Russell, Los Angeles Lakers
Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics
Karl-Anthony Towns, Timberwolves

World
Bojan Bogdanovic, Brooklyn Nets
Clint Capela, Houston Rockets
Mario Hezonja, Orlando Magic
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
Nikola Mirotic, Chicago Bulls
Emmanuel Mudiay, Denver Nuggets
Raul Neto, Utah Jazz
Kristaps Porzingis, New York Knicks
Dwight Powell, Dallas Mavericks
Andrew Wiggins, Minnesota Timberwolves

Avengers: Infinity War Will Have 67 Characters; I Predict Them All

1. Iron Man
2. Captain America
3. Hulk
4. Thor
5. Black Widow
6. Hawkeye
7. Nick Fury
8. Bucky Barnes/ Winter Solider
9. War Machine
10. Vision
11. Scarlet Witch
12. Falcon
13. Ant-Man
14. Wasp
15. Hank Pym
16. Black Panther
17. Doctor Strange
18. Agent 13
19. Maria Hill
20. Thanos
21. Loki
22. Spider-Man
23. Aunt May
24. Daredevil
25. Foggy Nelson
26. Karen Page
27. Punisher
28. Elektra
29. Jessica Jones
30. Hell Cat
31. Luke Cage
32. Iron Fist
33. "Thunderbolt" Ross
34. Star-Lord
35. Gamora
36. Drax
37. Groot
38. Rocket
39. Nova
40. Nebula
41. Mantis
42. Yondu
43. Rhommen Day
44. Nova Prime
45. The Collector
46. Howard The Duck
47. Ego
48. The Watcher
49. Jane Foster
50. Pepper Potts
51. Captain Marvel
52. Adam Warlock
53. She-Hulk
54. Wonder Man
55. Spider-Woman
56. Magnus
57. Kang
58. Galactus
59. Moon Knight
60. Namor
61. Valkyrie
62. Gargoyle
63. Nighthawk
64. Charlie-27
65. Moondragon
66. Northstar
67. Sleepwalker

Ok, obviously this is an AGGRESSIVE list.  I came up with characters who are established in this MCU (Marvel Cinematic Universe), and then added others that should/could be involved in the Infinity War.  I kept those under the Fox umbrella (X-Men, Fantastic Four, Deadpool, etc.) out of it and then just kept coming up with heroes and villains until I hit 67.  We shall see how many make it in there.  We can all follow along in 2 years when it comes out.  

Besse's Bets: Conference Championship Breakdown

Last week was, overall, a pretty solid weekend for Besse's Bets. Went 5-3 straight up on the spreads and O/U's, but more importantly, I went 3-1 on my 7-point teasers which have turned out to be a nice little strategy the last few weeks. But there were a couple fun, dramatic moments from last weekend to quickly note:

• Arizona and Green Bay - after the Pats game I was at a friend's place and a couple guys in the room were hammering the over, particularly teasing it down from 49.5 to 42.5. On the blog I had taken Arizona (-0.5) and the Under 57, but allowed myself to make a last minute change to Over 36. And there we were, just seconds left and the Packers trailing the Cardinals 20-13 which, if you're counting at home, is only 33 points. Then this:
  
  
  
  Everyone in the room came out of their seat, not because of the improbability of the Hail Mary, the throw by Rodgers rolling left with a guy in his face, or the catch by a streaking Janis...with the O/U teased down to 42.5, we were a virtual lock to now hit the Over which seconds ago was all but forgotten. Then Fitzgerald went 80 yards in two plays to score the game-winning TD and it was done. One of the greatest comebacks in betting history that I've been a part of.
  
• The other gem was the Broncos and Steelers, who entered the 4th quarter with Denver (-7.5) trailing 13-12. And just when it looked like the Steelers might be able to put this thing away, Toussaint fumbles, Denver gets new life, and after a CJ Anderson TD run and successful 2-point conversion to Demaryius Thomas, it's suddenly 20-13. I felt pretty comfortable with my teaser at this point (DEN -0.5, U47), but any Denver (-7.5) backers were still sweating it out. Then football happened. Big Ben takes a 13-yard sack on 4th and 5 and Denver gets it back at the PIT 30. Three plays to kill clock, and Brandon Mcmanus hits a FG to make it 23-13 and all the money shifts to Denver backers after an entire game in which it never appeared there was a chance. Then football happened again. A 22-yard PI call, two quick strikes to Martavis Bryant, and Mike Tomlin, who clearly had PIT +7.5, opts to kick a FG to make it 23-16 with :19 and go for the onside and Hail Mary. Denver recovers, it's over, and Denver backers were officially dead after coming back to life briefly, if only for a moment.

What a weekend, which sets us up for what should be a couple fun games tomorrow. A quick reminder that all lines are from Sportsbook.ag, the official unofficial sportsbook of Besse's Bets. Here we go...

New England (-3.5) at Denver (O/U 44.5)

No one is giving Denver a chance in this game and for the most part, neither am I. The Pats are the healthiest they've been in weeks, and we saw the difference having Jules back last week made. Gives Brady a reliable receiver who is quick off the line, can get separation and be there as a safety blanket especially when there's pressure. And that opens the field for Gronk to work. The O-line played really well last week, too, which was a pleasant surprise. Keeping Brady upright is key, as we saw in losses to the Jets and Dolphins when he was pressured and beaten pretty badly.

The Broncos are going to bring pressure and try to rough him up - we've heard it through the media and some back and forth tweets between Broncos players and Gronk have added some fodder.

Heard their whole team is good at giving low blows 😜🏈 https://t.co/nDOsOwkvki

— Rob Gronkowski (@RobGronkowski) January 19, 2016

I think we'll see a lot of quick passes to Edelman and James White, which will open things up for Gronk, as well. On the other side of the ball, I think Denver will score. They found success running the ball earlier in the season against NE with Osweiler at QB, and while Manning's arm is nothing more than a water gun right now, they can rely on quick slants to DT and Sanders who can make plays after the catch. But it won't be enough - New England's health makes them the best team in the AFC again, and perhaps the NFL excluding Arizona, and I think they'll avenge the November loss and head to their 8th Super Bowl.

The score: New England 30, Denver 23
New England -3.5, Over 44.5
7-point teaser: New England +4.5, Over 37.5


Arizona (+3) at Carolina (O/U 48)
This is going to be a fun game to watch. Everyone talks about the Carolina defense and how talented it is, but I think they're more opportunistic than anything else. They make plays and capitalize, as we saw last week with Luke Kuechly's pick-6 of Russell Wilson that made it 14-0 en route to a 31-0 halftime lead. But this D has bent and nearly broken multiple times this season: OT win against Indy (29-26, Rodgers nearly bringing GB back late the following week (37-29), the Saints win (41-38), and then last week nearly blowing a 31-point lead against Seattle, getting outscored 24-0 in the second half.

While these two teams rank 5th (AZ) and 6th (CAR) respectively in team defense, I feel the Cardinals have been more consistent on that side of the ball than Carolina. And on offense, they've got significantly more weapons with the likes of David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and John Brown. Carolina is limited with Jonathan Steward and Greg Olsen, though Newton's legs and playmaking ability often neutralize whatever advantage other teams often have.

I think this is going to be a terrific game, the better of the two this weekend. A back-and-forth, close battle throughout. And while I think Arizona is the better team and has a great shot to win, I continue to believe there's a destiny in play for Carolina: to lose to Brady and the Pats in Super Bowl 50. It's a game-winning FG type of game, one that comes on the heels of a final drive by Newton and the Panthers in the final seconds.

The score: Carolina 23, Arizona 20
Arizona +3.5, Under 48
7-point teaser: Carolina +4.5, Over 41*

*Note: While my final prediction score barely hits the teased over, I'm taking that bet b/c I believe the game could in fact be a shootout, so my confidence in teasing down the over vs. teasing up the under is significantly higher, thus the play.

I've already officially booked my 7-point teasers for the weekend, but follow me on Twitter (@tbesse29) for updates on my betting, the games, and other bullshit I tweet and RT.

Good luck this weekend and enjoy the games!

-Besse

Game of Thrones Teasers

Boston Accent Trailer

Keefe Hosts "Patriots Playbook"; Talks with Adam Schefter

PODCAST: Patriots Playbook 1/21: Previewing Patriots-Broncos w/ @Keefe21 @AdamSchefter LISTEN: https://t.co/4i4fg7oPjw

— Patriots.com (@PATRIOTSdotCOM) January 21, 2016

Royal Rumble Odds

Thanks to fine folks over at Bovada here are the odds for the 2016 Royal Rumble.  (Check out the #DORK episode on the Rumble here.)

Odds to Win the Royal Rumble 2016

1. Triple H 6/5
2. Roman Reigns 9/5
3. Brock Lesnar 3/1
4. Bray Wyatt 15/1
5. The Rock 16/1
6. Daniel Bryan 18/1
7. Dean Ambrose 20/1
8. Kevin Owens 20/1
9. The Undertaker 25/1
10. Rusev 33/1
11. Sheamus 33/1
12. Braun Strowman 33/1
13. AJ Styles 33/1
14. Ryback 35/1
15. Finn Balor 40/1
16. Cesaro 40/1
17. Dolph Ziggler 40/1
18. Alberto Del Rio 50/1
19. Chris Jericho 50/1
20. Randy Orton 50/1
21. Vince or Shane McMahon 65/1
22. Kalisto 66/1
23. Neville 75/1
24. The Big Show 80/1
25. Mark Henry 95/1
26. Curtis Axel 100/1
27. Big E 100/1
28. El Torito 150/1
29. Fernando 150/1
30. Luke Harper 100/1
31. Kane 100/1
32. Kofi Kingston 100/1
33. Titus O’Neill 100/1
34. Erick Rowan 100/1
35. R-Truth 100/1
36. Stardust 100/1
37. Heath Slater 100/1
38. King Barrett 150/1
39. Bo Dallas 150/1
40. Fandango 150/1
41. Goldust 150/1
42. Tyson Kidd 150/1
43. The Miz 150/1
44. Shinsuke Nakamura 150/1
45. Alex Riley 150/1
46. Adam Rose 150/1
47. Zack Ryder 150/1
48. Damien Sandow 150/1
49. Darren Young 150/1
50. Stone Cold  200/1

Royal Rumble – WWE Intercontinental Championship
Dean Ambrose -140
Kevin Owens EVEN 

Royal Rumble – WWE United States Championship
Alberto Del Rio -400
Kalisto +250 

Keefe's NBA All-Stars

EASTERN CONFERENCE:

LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
Paul George, Indiana Pacers
Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons
Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls
Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors

DeMar DeRozan, Toronto Raptors
Isaiah Thomas, Boston Celtics
Carmelo Anthony, New York Knicks
Chris Bosh, Miami Heat
John Wall, Washington Wizards
Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks
Kemba Walker, Charlotte Hornets

WESTERN CONFERENCE:

Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder
DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento Kings
Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs
Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder

Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers
James Harden, Houston Rockets
Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers
Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors
Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers
Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies

Suicide Squad Trailer 2

#DORK 33: Royal Rumble Preview

Suicide Squad Posters

Team USA Basketball Down to 30

USA Basketball is narrowing down their roster for the 2016 Summer Olympics.  12 will go to Brazil. Today they announced 30 who are in the mix.

• Carmelo Anthony
• LaMarcus Aldridge
• Harrison Barnes
• Bradley Beal
• Jimmy Butler
• Mike Conley
• DeMarcus Cousins
• Anthony Davis
• DeMar DeRozan
• Andre Drummond
• Kevin Durant
• Kenneth Faried
• Rudy Gay
• Paul George
• Draymond Green
• Blake Griffin
• James Harden
• Gordon Hayward
• Dwight Howard
• Andre Iguodala
• Kyrie Irving
• LeBron James
• DeAndre Jordan
• Kawhi Leonard
• Kevin Love
• Chris Paul
• Klay Thompson
• John Wall
• Russell Westbrook

Chip Kelly is the right guy for the 49ers right now

Last week the 49ers announced, via Jed York's Twitter, that they'd hired Chip Kelly as the new head coach.

After a thorough search, Trent & I are thrilled to announce Chip Kelly as the new #HeadCoach of the @49ers

— Jed York (@JedYork) January 14, 2016

So here we are, the Chip Kelly era in San Francisco. A lot of people are skeptical, but I have to put that more on the fact that the 49ers are so fucking bad right now, it's hard not to be skeptical. Outside of hiring Bill Belicheck, Bruce Arians, or Ron Rivera, I'm not sure there's a coach they could've hired that wouldn't have met some sort of eyeroll. But I like it for a few reasons:

• I caught this third-handed, but my buddy JJ shared a valid point from our friend Ari: With Kelly at the helm it at least makes the 49ers interesting again. Good coach, good team or not, the guy has been a polarizing figure in the NFL. We'll be excited to talk about and watch the team again. The hire breathes new life into the media coverage and fan interest, for better or worse.
• Offense - the 49ers were, for a long time, an offensive-minded team associated with the West-coast offense. The great teams of the 80's and 90's under Bill Walsh, George Seifert, Mooch, etc. Mind you, we had Montana, Young, and even Jeff Garcia who was solid under center in the early 2000's. In his three years in Philly, Kelly's percentage of pass plays increased each year, eventually landing at about 59% in 2015. Was it the right approach with Shady McCoy and Demarco Murray as his RB's and Nick Foles and Sam Bradford at QB during his tenure, probably not. But dating back to his days at Oregon the guy loves offense. And again, that should make this team exciting to follow again.
• Kap - Tomsula fucked up with how he transitioned to Gabbert this year. He should've given Kap the new O-line first, checked to see if he could float or not, then made the switch. So I don't think we have closed the book on whether Kap really sucks now or was at the mercy of a dog shit O-line. And if there was ever hope to resurrect the career of Colin Kapernick, bringing in the guy who coached Marcus Mariota at Oregon is a pretty good move. Although team-friendly, Kap signed a huge deal just a couple years ago, so the team is still invested. They can pull the cord and not take a major hit, but they owe it to themselves and to Kap to make another run at this thing. With improvements we saw to the O-line after Gabbert took over and Kelly's up-tempo offensive style, this could play to Kap's strengths. Spread the offense out, give him some room to move, and put less emphasis on going through progressions. Simplify things a bit and give him room to hurt you with his legs, something that made him such a success back in 2012 when he took the 49ers to the Super Bowl. 
• Talent - they have some pieces here to actually do something, esp. on offense. Torrey Smith is a legit deep threat, Boldin a reliable target and possession receiver, and Carlos Hyde can be a legitimate RB1 if he's healthy. Tomsula was a conservative play caller, so give the offense a little pep and see if things can open back up. I think they still need one more weapon, whether it be getting Reggie Bush back or, if you want take his injury history out of the equation, finding an explosive slot receiver who Kap can lean on as a safety net but also help open up the field in terms of YAC. 

With respect to D, many have criticized his fast-paced offense for exposing and making the defense vulnerable. But I liked Kelly's quote to the Dallas Morning News this year - "It's plays played...It's not time of possession."

He has a point - energy is spent on plays, not necessarily while the clock is winding down as a team takes the huddle, calls in plays and personnel, etc. So while I think it'll be important for the 49ers to add some depth on D this year - they weren't great - in order to compete, they dealt with a lot of turnover and I think giving Eric Mangini more time to continue installing his system and having the players get acclimated and more comfortable is important.

Ultimately, the keys to success here lie in two major areas:

• Give Kelly time. Don't pull the cord after a couple years if the 49ers aren't yet making the NFC Championship. I still think the Eagles pulled the cord too soon. Did he fuck up some personnel moves? Absolutely. But he was 20-12 in his first two years and had a down third year. Seemed a bit panicky.
• He's not meddling in personnel moves. Trent Baalke, that smug looking fuck, is the GM. Not Kelly. This is big. Kelly fucked up in Philly trading McCoy, letting D-Jax go, and giving up a ton of shit to get Sam Bradford of all people from the St. Louis L.A. Rams. Wasn't smart. But he has less on his plate and can focus on coaching the players they get him for his system. I think this will be key, and we'll see what Kelly can really do coaching at the NFL level.

I'm optimistic and love the move. Now let's see what happens with the draft and the offseason, then we can really assess what their chances are in 2016. I doubt there's a playoff spot out there given where the Cardinals and Seahawks are talent wise, but there's a chance to compete and be in the conversation again. For year one, after a 5-11 season, that'll be a good start.

-Besse

Ilir Latifi with the neck punch FTW

Not to be missed from last night's UFC card was this gem...Ilir Latifi with the punch to the neck. Put Sean O'Connell on queer street, followed him to the mat with another shot to the dome, then lights out:




Night night!

-Besse

Cruz-Dillashaw, Mitrione's Eye save UFC Fight Night 81

On paper - and noted here yesterday on The Brief - UFC Fight Night 81, or #UFCBoston as it was affectionately referred to on Twitter - had the makings of a blockbuster on free TV. We had a heavyweight fight between two guys with highlight reel KO's on their resume, a guy with the nickname "Showtime", and two champions battling for Bantamweight glory.

After a soft opening with Ross Pearson and Francisco Trinaldo that ended in a UD for the latter, the big boys came out and everyone got wet with excitement. A lot of dancing around feeling each other out and two eye pokes later, we had Mitrione blinking all over the cage like he'd just lost a contact and entered the 3rd round with a snoozer. The eye pokes, however, eventually led to this:



He couldn't see, and thus didn't see, a straight from Browne that came down the pipe and fractured his orbital bone. It swelled immediately, and after being taken down and mounted, Browne happlessly punched him out until the ref stepped in. It was fairly overwhelming, but when Mitrione stood up we all saw the massive golf ball coming out of his eye. Disgusting to the point that FOX actually censored it, refusing to show the eye outside of when we caught a glimpse of it right after the stoppage.

Then we moved on to the Pettis-Alvarez fight. Yesterday I predicted Showtime would return to his championship form, but it was the exact opposite. Alvarez pressured and never really gave Pettis the room to open up, smothering him to a split decision win that was a bit of a snoozer. It was a frustrating watch - Pettis with so much talent now on a downswing after gracing the cover of a Wheaties box for the otherwordly striking abilities he'd shown just a couple years back, and Alvarez typically an all-action guy utilizing a smart, albeit conservative, gameplan to ride out the win. He called for a title shot after, but I'm not really interested.

So after a few lackluster bouts we got to the main event and honestly, there really wasn't a chance this fight would suck and it was important it didn't for the sake of the card. Both guys really delivered - it was a high-level, technical, tactical fight with tremendous footwork, angles, precision striking, and impressive scrambling when they hit the mat. In fact, it was Cruz who initiated the ground game the most, hitting 3 of 6 takedowns. The fight was incredibly close throughout, with neither guy truly in danger at any point. The most dramatic part of the fight was partially credited to Joe Rogan, who after a leg kick by Dillashaw in the 4th was convinced that he'd severely damaged Cruz's leg and the former champ was in serious trouble. Turns out it was his foot from a pre-fight injury, and Cruz mentioned after the fight it didn't really hurt until the 5th, a round he actually won on one of the judge's scorecards as well as my unofficial scorecard.

Nonetheless, Cruz took the decision. Two key takeaways from the fight:

• Cruz looked phenomenal after all that time off and reiterated what he's said for so long as a commentator - ring rust doesn't exist, not if you train hard. He'll be tough to dethrone, and you have to believe his toughest opponent will be himself (injuries).
• Dillashaw proved his mettle as a champion. Cruz said in the pre-fight buildup that Dillashaw needed his name for his resume. Although he didn't win the fight, Dillashaw made a pretty big statement that he was a worthy champ and, on a different night, could see a decision vs. Cruz go his way. These guys will likely fight again, and I expect the odds to be a toss up when the lines come out.

Matches to Make

• Travis Browne - really disappointing effort from Browne with the eye pokes. Stipe is next in line for a title shot after Werdum-Cain II, so give him a rematch against either Overeem or Arlovski. He previously felled Reem with the memorable front kick to the chin, but Reem has won 3 straight and is looking for the UFC title shot that has long evaded him. Arlovski is alos interesting as Browne lost in that one-round barn burner, but Arlovski is coming off the KO loss to Stipe and looking to rebound.
• Matt Mitrione - a surgeon, Dana White, then Mark Hunt. Take care of the eye, then head to UFC HQ to negotiate a new deal after your contract expired last night. I think Mitrione has a few more left in him, and can bring some excitement to the table against guys who don't liberally throw their fingers at the eyes of opponents. I'd love to see him in there against Hunt. Guaranteed KO for one of them.
• Eddie Alvarez - that Kabib guy. McGregor has the next shot at Dos Anjos in March, so give Alvarez another top guy. Kabib has been complaining for a title shot for a while now but can't stay healthy. He's a wrestler, so that should negate the ground game and force the fight to the feet. Kabib's interesting in that he's undefeated and has a win over Dos Anjos, but this could be a good chem check before a title fight for both guys.
• Anthony Pettis - Donald Cerrone part two. Both guys need a win, Cerrone is much improved from their first encounter, having earned (and lost in) a title shot last month. Pettis gets a shot to regain his dominant form against an all-action opponent he owns a win over, while Cerrone gets to avenge a loss and stay close to the top of the mountain. Why not.
• TJ Dillashaw - Aljamain Sterling. Top-5 opponent on the rise, clamoring for a title shot. Give him the former champ coming off a razor-thin SD loss. It's the closest thing without the real thing. For Dillashaw, he has the chance to turn down a rising star at the gate and reassure us he's still at the top of the mountain. Win, and he gets the rematch against Cruz or...
• Dominick Cruz - Urijah Faber. Might as well. These guys don't like each other, and Faber doesn't have much time left to win the UFC title he's never been able to win. His fights with Cruz have always been tough, he owns a win against him from years back, and with a win it could set up a fight against Dillashaw that many have been calling for ever since TJ left Team Alpha Male for Denver, CO. That fight only sells if it's for a title - imagine if it turned out to be Faber the champ after finally winning the title against his arch nemesis. A lot needs to happen, but the fight vs. Cruz sells itself and the long-term potential makes my mouth water.

-Besse

UFC Fight Night 81 is must-watch TV

It's pretty remarkable that tonight we'll yet again see another UFC title fight televised on free TV. Last month it was Dos Anjos and Cerrone on FOX. The last time we saw TJ Dillashaw fight was on FOX as well when he dismantled Renan Barao in a rematch of their first fight, when Dillashaw battered Barao for five rounds to shock the world and win the Bantamweight title.

Tonight, we see Dillashaw again as defends his title against Dominick Cruz, the former bantamweight champ who, interestingly enough, never lost his title. Three years of injuries and resulting inactivity led to him being stripped of the title, which opened the door for Barao and Urijah Faber to fight for the interim belt. And even tonight, it'll only be Cruz's second fight in 18 months as he hasn't fought since his win over Takeya Mizugaki back in September 2014. 

Dillashaw has been on a roll and looked unstoppable as the champ, so tonight will be an interesting battle as he welcomes the former champ into the cage. What I'm most interested to see is how Dillashaw handles the constant movement and footwork of Cruz. The champ brings quite a bit of movement and angles to the fight himself, but I feel his game is more based in power punching than it is boxing.

I like the former champ in this one - I think his footwork and angles are going to test the patience of Dillashaw, who will constantly be looking to close the gap. I see this being a fairly close fight throughout, with Cruz scoring points and building his case for the decision through precision and movement.

Remember the words of UFC Featherweight Champ Conor McGregor - "Precision beats power and timing beats speed." Not to say Cruz will KO Dillashaw, but I think we'll see this quote play out over five rounds as Cruz reclaims the belt he technically never lost with a decision win. While scores may be 48-47 across the board, I don't see it being a controversial win, but rather a convincing return to the top for Cruz.

Not to be forgotten on the undercard are a couple other fights that interest me:

Anthony Pettis fights for the first time since losing his Lightweight title to Dos Anjos, taking on former Bellator champ Eddie Alvarez, who is 1-1 in his UFC career. Pettis was the poster boy not too long ago, a dynamic fighter who was even on the cover of a Wheaties box. But the heavy hands of Dos Anjos ended that run, so he finds himself looking to work his way back. I think he does here - Alvarez is a great fighter, but I think we're seeing him on the back-9 of his career whereas Pettis still hasn't made the turn. I think Pettis finishes the fight and starts building his case to take on the winner of the Dos Anjos - McGregor fight we're all waiting for in March.

The other fight I'm interested in is a heavyweight matchup between Travis Browne and Matt Mitrione. Both guys are coming off losses, though I feel this fight is a lot more important to Browne than it is Mitrione. Browne's title aspirations are a lot more legit than those of Mitrione, who looked great during a recent 3-fight win streak, though against the likes of some bottom feeder guys in the division. Browne, however, has impressive KO wins over Gabriel Gonzaga, Alistair Overeem, and Josh Barnett to his name, all in succession during a streak that had folks clamoring for a title shot before he lost a decision to now champ Fabricio Werdum. He's split his last two fights, so if there's any hope of making another run at the title he can't afford to lose to a guy like Mitrione. Nor do I think he will - this should be exciting for however long it lasts. Mitrione has thrown caution to the wind of late, so expect him to throw some bombs and trade with Browne before the latter's reach capitalizes on an opening and leaves Mitrione spilled on the canvas, heaped over in pile of unconsciousness.

Should be a fun night of fights, and we'll check back in after with a quick recap and thoughts on what we hope to see coming out of it.

-Besse

NFL Divisional Weekend: Besse's Bets

Note: This blog was updated to reflect a late line change on Sportsbook.ag before kickoff of the AZ-GB game and change in bet by the writer.

I wanted to write this a little closer to post this weekend given all the injuries in question, particularly for the Pats/Chiefs game. We're about 4 hours from kickoff, and I need get in leg day before kickoff, so here we are.

Last week, I went 3-1 on Saturday and 2-2 on Sunday - I hit all the O/U and only one spread, but had a lot more success with my 7-point teasers, parlaying game spreads and O/U for each game. I went 3-1 in those, so I'll post my teaser plays along with the spread and O/U predictions. Here we go, time do my job.

Quick note - all spreads and O/U are from sportsbook.ag, the official sportsbook of The Sports Brief (not really, just the online book I use).

Chiefs @ Patriots (-5, O/U 44)
This is the weirdest game of the weekend because unlike the Steelers and Broncos, who have key players already ruled out, many of the big guns in this game are questionable and hoping to play. So it makes it a difficult game to predict. But pre-game reports indicate Edelman, Gronk, and Amendola are all in. Maclin may not be. So I'm analyzing this game assuming the following -

Edelman is the most healthy of the bunch, Amendola is comparable, and Gronk is not at full speed but gutting it out. And Maclin doesn't play or is ineffective, especially against Butler, nor does Ware.

That being said, it's in the 40's and raining at Gillette today, which I think will be a significant factor. I expect big games from James White and Edelman as the Patriots look to a) keep Brady upright and react to the pressure given their woes in the O-line and b) don't look to take significant risks in the passing game with the weather conditions.

I also think the Chiefs will struggle to move the ball in this weather, especially if Maclin and Ware are out or not able to go full speed. Don't be surprised if we get a Patriots TD on defense. Kelce could be a big factor for them, but may need him to stay down and block and open the run game or give Smith more time for guys to get open in the passing game. And I don't see the WR's finding a lot of success - outside of Maclin they're not very good and the Pats' secondary should find success.

And my brother made a good point about the Chiefs - the 11-game winning streak is impressive at face value, but look at who they beat:

• Landry Jones' Steelers
• Lions
• Manning's worst game ever Broncos
• Chargers
• Bills
• David Carr's epic meltdown Raiders
• Chargers (again)
• Ravens
• Browns
• Raiders (much closer this time)
• And then the shitty Texans

It's not all that great. So the pick is:

Pats -5

Under 44

7-point teaser: Pats +2, Under 51

Final score: Patriots 23, Chiefs 13

Packers @ Cardinals (-7.5, Under 49.5)

Last week I thought the Redskins would actually win this game, and while GB looked good, especially in the 2nd half, and I hit the teaser with GB +8 with ease, the game did remind that the Packers were in fact playing, the Redskins. 

I do think GB started to find themselves in this game - a nice balance of the run game with Lacy/Starks and reducing their reliance on the passing game as much as games and teams past. But Davante Adams is out which opens a couple things for the Cardinals on defense:

• 6th against the run this year, and they can look to shut down Lacy and Starks
• Force the Packers to lean on Rodgers and the passing game, especially forcing 3-and-long situations

Meanwhile, the Cardinals are loaded on offense and had a couple weeks to rest. Arians is a terrific coach, and I think David Johnson has a big game against a defense that allowed 120 yards per game on the ground.

The pick:

Cardinals -7.5

Under 49.5

7-point teaser: Cardinals -0.5, Over 43

Final score: Cardinals 27, Packers 14

Seahawks @ Panthers (-2.5, Under 44)

I've been back and forth on this one. There's something about the Seahawks - two straight SB appearances, explosive offensive production from Week 10 to the end of the season, #1 defense in the regular season, Beast Mode is back, and the horseshoe up their ass last week when Blair Walsh hit a Tiger Woods' doublecross into the fucking treeline.

Then I look across the field and I see the #6 defense, Cam Newton playing the best football of his career, Jonathan Stewart back, and the Panthers at home. I also love how Carolina was tested several times coming down the stretch during their pursuit of 16-0. While they ultimately went 15-1 after losing to Atlanta in week 16, the resilience they showed in beating Seattle on the road, Indy in OT after a furious comeback by Luck, holding on GB in a late-game push, and incredible rallies by the Saints and Giants, I love this team's ability to hang tough in difficult spots late in games and find a way to win. I don't think this is one of those low-scoring games like we saw last week in Minnesota - the weather is much better as is Cam Newton (in lieu of Teddy Bridgewater). But I think it'll be a tight, back-and-forth battle in which we see Newton and Wilson trade scores and great players and leadership of their teams. But ultimately, I think we see the Panthers resilience prevail again as they lean on the tandem of Newton and Greg Olsen through the air, and the defense makes a big stop late to set up a final, field-goal scoring drive orchestrated by Newton to move on to the NFC Championship.

The pick:

Panthers -2.5

Under 44

7-point teaser: Seattle +9.5, Under 51

Final score: Panthers 20, Seahawks 17

Steelers @ Broncos (-7.5, O/U 40)

The Steelers are completely undermanned in this game, and it's unfortunate b/c this could have been a terrific game in a rematch of two teams who treated us to a gem in Week 15, a game the Steelers won 34-27 but not without some theater at the end.

The concussed Antonio Brown is out, now fielding apologies from Pacman Jones, and D'Angelo Williams is also out. Big Ben took a beating last week and for all we know, likely can't throw the ball 30 yards down field, something Martavis Bryant often benefits from.

Meanwhile, Peyton Manning returns as a game manager after Brock Osweiler put in a week 10 Manning-esque performance in Week 17 against the Chargers. In came Manning, who handed the ball off the rest of the game then was given credit for dragging then out of the depths of despair, which was laughable. 

Regardless, the Steelers are fighting ISIS with muskets on Sunday. I see the Broncos running the ball well with Hillman and Anderson, opening up the field for a big game from Demaryius Thomas. I actually stacked Manning, Thomas and Sanders as I think they'll light up the Steelers D and bury Pitt. I don't care how tough Big Ben and the Steelers are, they just don't have anything left for this game. And the Broncos are fresh, at home, and have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball.

The pick:

Broncos -7.5

Under 40

7-point teaser: Broncos -0.5, Under 47

Final score: Broncos 24, Steelers 10

I'll be posting final teaser picks on my Twitter today and tomorrow - @tbesse29 - so follow along for any updates, bragging, or suicide notes. Good luck this weekend, and Go Pats!

-Besse

2016 Oscar Nominations

BEST PICTURE

• The Big Short
• Bridge of Spies
• Brooklyn
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Martian
• The Revenant
• Room
• Spotlight

BEST ACTOR

• Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
• Matt Damon, The Martian
• Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
• Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
• Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

BEST ACTRESS

• Cate Blanchett, Carol
• Brie Larson, Room
• Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
• Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
• Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Christian Bale, The Big Short
• Tom Hardy, The Revenant
• Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
• Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
• Sylvester Stallone, Creed

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
• Rooney Mara, Carol
• Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
• Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
• Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

DIRECTOR

• Adam McKay - The Big Short
• George Miller - Mad Max: Fury Road
• Alejandro G. Iñárritu - The Revenant
• Lenny Abrahamson - Room
• Tom McCarthy - Spotlight

Ready For Valentine's Day This Year

CM Punk vs. Mickey Gall in UFC Debut?

Dana White said that Mickey Gall will fight Michael Jackson on the prelims of UFC 196 next month.  If Gall wins, he will face CM Punk.

Gall is 1-0 as a professional (no UFC fights), he's 23 years old and fought as a welterweight in his only pro bout.

CM Punk is 37 and expected to be a middleweight.

I'm looking forward to seeing Punk in the octagon... and clearly they aren't throwing him any world beaters to start his career.

R.I.P. Lawrence Phillips

Former Nebraska RB and #6 overall pick in the 1996 NFL Draft, Lawrence Phillips, was found dead in his jail cell early this morning.  (He was facing murder charges of his "former" cellmate...)  Phillips was 40.

Also one of the first ridiculous college football players I remember watching.  He was insanely good, and as it turns out, just insane. So R.I.P. to Lawrence Phillips, one of our favorites here at The Brief. And R.I.P. to Joe Thiesmann's draft night analysis of the pick.

Keefe Guest Hosted "Patriots Playbook"

Patriots Playbook 1/12: Previewing Patriots-Chiefs

Click the link above for 2 enjoyable hours of Patriots talk...

#DORK 32: Making A Murderer

Besse's NFL Wild Card Picks

I'll start this blog by saying I'm as Even Steven as it gets when it comes to picking games. Like one of those assholes on Draftkings who uses formulas and programs to create 100 different lineups, I could submit 100 different sets of picks in a given NFL week and still go 8-8. It's how I roll. That being said, here are my picks for the 2016 season Wild Card weekend. All lines pulled from Sportsbook.ag, where I spend my money:

Chiefs at Texans (+3, O/U 39.5)
Some big news coming out this morning that Jadeveon Clowney wasn't activated by Bill O'Brien and ran out of the stadium like a chick who just got dumped. It's a big story, but it won't change my pick nor do I think it has an impact on the game.

The Chiefs come in on the heels of a 10-game winning streak, while the Texans won a shitty division whose other three teams won a total of 16 games. The Chiefs started the season 1-5, going 1-4 against current playoff teams. They only played two playoff teams during their 10-game streak, beating the Steelers at home vs. Landry Jones and the worst Peyton Manning we've ever seen. The Texans, meanwhile, went 1-3 vs. playoff teams. Conclusion: neither team has won nor proven shit. So how do we pick the game?

I'm leaning Texans for a few reasons:

• They're at home
• Bill O'Brien is a good coach whose managed to get quite a bit out of the team that had to start four different QB's this year, none of whom are all that great. Hoyer is the least worst.
• Hopkins and Watt - both guys can change the game on their respective sides of the ball
• Andy Reid - I'm convinced he'll fuck it up by mismanaging timeouts

Alex Smith has been solid this year and has a bunch of weapons, but I think the Texans D will either get to him or the Chiefs will dedicate so much attention to stopping Watt that they mute their own offense in the process. The Texans offense isn't great, but Hoyer can sling it to Hopkins all day and they've got a few guys in the backfield that can do some different things, change pace and get first downs. I like the Texans to cover at home in a close, low-scoring affair.

The pick: Texans +3, Under 39.5

Steelers at Bengals (+2.5, O/U 45.5)

The Bengals are starting A.J. Mccarron at quarterback and I think this is going to work out better for them. Not having Dalton removes the "can't win a primetime or playoff game" discussion and they can go in with nothing to lose except a playoff game for which they'll get a free pass anyway since they don't have their starting QB. It's a win/win even if they lose. 

Mccarron, meanwhile, is 2-1 in games he started (NOTE: Dalton sucked in the 33-20 loss to the Steelers before bowing out). And Mccarron's loss was at Denver on Monday night in OT. I think we've got a bit of a Brady/Bledsoe thing brewing - not to say he can take them all the way, b/c if they win today I maintain the Pats beat them next week anyway. But he's played well, has two really good RB's in Hill and Bernard, stud receiver in AJ Green and a solid TE option in Eifert. Plus the defense is excellent, they're at home, and Big Ben has been turnover prone in the last several weeks.

On the flip side, the Steelers offense is still explosive but a couple things working against them this week:

• They're down to their 3rd and 4th options at RB. One guy whose name I don't know and am too lazy to look, and Todman whose name I only know because he's from Dartmouth, MA, just up the road from where I grew up.
• Their defense sucks, so Mccarron can ball a bit
• Turnovers - Big Ben has been trying to force it lately, and I think the Bengals' D can make him pay

The pick: Bengals +2.5, Under 45.5

Seahawks at Vikings (+4.5, O/U 39)

I've heard quite a few people opting to jump on the Vikings bandwagon the last few days and I'm just not buying it. Bridgewater sucks, so there's no reason the Seattle D can load up the box to stop Peterson and force him to try and take on their secondary. The receiving corp isn't anywhere near the level they need to be to compete with Sherman & Co. I look back at the 38-7 whitewashing by Seattle earlier this year and don't think that was necessarily a fluke.

Lynch being out doesn't necessarily worry me, either. This offense rides with Wilson and they've been lights out in the passing game. Christine Michael isn't a bum - he can bring some value in the running game and open things up for Wilson through the air. It's going to be cold AF out there, but I think all that'll do is prevent Seattle from hitting the 30's b/c of a couple dropped balls here and there. I've got them dominating this one pillar to post and riding off to the Divisional Round with a 24-10 win.

The pick: Seattle -4.5, Under 39

Packers at Redskins (-1, O/U 45.5)

I LOVE Cousins and the Redskins in this one. Won 4 straight to close the year and scored over 30 in three of the four games. That offense is rolling and is loaded with weapons, plus Sam Shields, the Packers top corner, is out. I think this really lends itself to Desean Jackson breaking a couple big plays, and Jordan Reed is going to be a handful for the Packers' D to handle. He's as good as it gets at the TE position right now. And Cousins, to his credit, finds anyone and everyone in that offense. Garcon and Crowder have been effective in the passing game, as well. 

The Packers come in reeling, and as bad as they've played there's always the fact they have Aaron Rodgers. But for Patriots' fans like myself, we all know that even when you have Da Gawd Tom Brady behind center, without any weapons even he can't win a Super Bowl on his own. You get steamrolled like they did at home against the Ravens back in 2010. I see this being a pretty close game throughout, with Rodgers getting a couple late chances to tie or win the game in the closing minutes but ultimately failing to convert and the Redskins holding serve at home and advancing to the next round.

The pick: Redskins -1, Over 45.5

-Besse

The Conjuring 2 Trailer

Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2016

Ken Griffey Jr. (99.3%, 3 shy)
Mike Piazza (83%)
BELOW THE 75% NEEDED
Jeff Bagwell (71.6%)
Tim Raines (69.8%)
Trevor Hoffman (67.3%)
Curt Schilling (52.3%)
Roger Clemens (45.2%)
Barry Bonds (44.3%)
Edgar Martinez (43.4%)
Mike Mussina (43%)
Alan Trammell (40.9%)
Lee Smith (34.1%)
Fred McGriff (20.9%)
Jeff Kent (16.6%)
Larry Walker (15.5%)
Mark McGwire (12.3%)
Gary Sheffield (11.6%)
Billy Wagner (10.5%)
Sammy Sosa (7%)

#DORK 31: Marvel & DC in 2016