Besse's Homerun Pool Entry

I got invited to join a HR pool this year. I'd heard of them before and I think I might have even joined one like five years ago then completely forgot about it and didn't bother to pay attention. I'm assuming I didn't win. Regardless, for some reason this year I was all-in on doing it, most likely because I'm pretty jacked up about my fantasy keeper team in the Player Haters' Ball league with Keefe, Shark, Woody and a cast of other characters. When you've got the likes of Bryzzo - that's Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant combined, for those of you living under a rock - Correa, Altuve, Marte, JD Martinez, Sale, Keuchel, and more, you have good reason to feel good. I'll post my team in a separate blog later so you can rub one out to the full roster.

Anyway, I spent a lot of time looking at it, examining historical data of players, projections, and ballpark trends*, then submitted my final roster yesterday. Here's how it works - there are nine roster spots across four different groups, or tiers. Group A is your premier power hitters and you choose one guy. Group B is the next tier, you select two. Group C is the next tier below that, and you select three. Then you write in three guys, so that makes it really interesting. A little wrinkle from the commissioner - you can sub for a player one time at any time in 2016, and you get credit for homeruns to date plus homeruns from your new player thereafter. However, you must sub with a guy from the tier below - you can't sub in from the same group.

For example, if Stanton is out for the season starting May 23, I could sub in someone from Group B, e.g. J.D. Martinez. If Giancarlo had 10 HR's to date, I get credit for his 10, plus however many HR's Martinez hits starting May 23.

Thanks to Jon Couture of the Boston Herald and Standard Times for the invite. Here's the squad:

Group A (one player)
Options: Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Giancarlo Stanton, Chris Davis

My pick: Giancarlo Stanton

Rationale: The player with the most prodigious homerun power in the game is coming off a year in which he was injured, missed more than half a season, and still hit 27 homeruns. He comes in healthy and with Barry Bonds as a hitting coach. You fucking kidding me? Look, I have all the respect in the world for Trout, Harper, and Davis. Those guys can easily hit 35-40 dingers. But Stanton could hit 60 if he stays healthy. I don't get bonus points for distance - I should - but I'll have a lot more fun rooting for his mammoth power than I will any of the other guys.

Group B (two players)
Options: Anthony Rizzo, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado, David Ortiz, J.D. Martinez, Josh Donaldson, Miguel Sano, Nelson Cruz

My picks: Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado

Rationale: This was a tough group to pick out of for a number of reasons. I've got Rizzo and Martinez on my fantasy team, so easily could've gone with either of those guys. The three TOR guys all mash and could easily hit 35-40. Ortiz is a 30 HR guy, but he's old and even though he starts slow then always comes on and proves the doubters wrong, I wouldn't be comfortable with him on my squad. Sano is too much of a question mark and I just simply don't care for Cruz playing on a shitty team in a shitty park.

I went with Bryant for three reasons: 1) on my fantasy team, so more fun to root for him; 2) huge power, and I've read several scouting reports over the last couple years that say he's got 50 dinger potential; and 3) I really like his potential with nearly a full season under his belt where he hit 26 after going 0-fer in April and with how loose and loaded the Cubs are - I think it helps him relax and do his thing in 2016.

With Arenado it was tough mentally and emotionally. I'm still scarred from trading him to Woody last year. It was May 17, he was hitting .280 but only had 3 HR's and, while steady, hadn't really lit it up. Bryant was warming up and he was always my long-term guy, so I used Arenado as leverage to upgrade at SP and RP. Woody sent over Shelby Miller, who was 5-0 at the time with a sub-2.00 ERA and like a top-5 SP on the player rater. I also picked up Luke Gregerson from the Astros to round out my stable of closers. Then Arenado went on to hit 43 bombs, including 9 in May, 12 in June, and 11 in September and Shelby Miller didn't win a game for like 17 consecutive starts. Fuck me. But you can't ignore Arenado's power at Coors Field, and with the spring he's having, I had to do it. It'll be bittersweet everytime he launches one into orbit, but I'd rather have him than not have him.

Group 3 (three players)
Options: Adam Jones, Carlos Gonzalez, Jay Bruce, Kyle Schwarber, mark Teixeira, Todd Frazier, Albert Pujols, Chris Carter, Jose Abreu, Lucas Duda, Paul Goldschmidt, Yoenis Cespedes, Byung-Ho Park, Evan Gattis, Justin Upton, Manny Machado

My Picks: Todd Frazier, Paul Goldschmidt, Manny Machado

Rationale: A lot of guys to pick from here, so I won't go into much detail on those I didn't select. Goldschmidt for me was the easy pick in the group. He's as complete a player as you'll find, a top-3 fantasy pick in my eyes, and fresh off a 33 HR season. He hit 36 in 2013, was injured in 2014, but returned to form last year and will continue to rake. Automatic and reliable for this particular group.

I really liked Frazier with his move to Chicago and hitting in the same lineup as Jose Abreu. He's in the beginning of his prime and after seeing his homerun totals climb from 19 to 29 to 35 in 2015, I love his potential to hit 35 again and possibly even reach 40.

And lastly was Machado. Another 3B. Man this position is loaded right now. The kid broke out last year as a 22-year old with 35 bombs after only playing half a season in 2014 due to injury. Hitting in the same lineup as Crush Davis, a group A guy, and Adam Jones, a fellow Group C guy, and Camden Yards has been a top-10 HR friendly ballpark every year since 2006 excluding 2014 when it was 20th. I love this pick.

A few notables I passed on:

Carlos Gonzalez - another 40 HR guy in the COL lineup last year, but injuries are a big question with him. Couldn't risk it with his health concerns.

Kyle Schwarber - love this kid's power, but he's a positional mindfuck and Joe Maddon loves to tinker with different lineups, matchups, etc. I feel like he could lose some starts via various platoon situations.

Mark Teixeira - loved his potential with that short porch in right, but another guy whose injury history concerns me.

Write-Ins (Choose 3)

Carlos Correa - I thought this was my sexiest pick on the roster. Hit 22 HR's in 99 games last year and will only get better. My hope is he'll be a guy people miss and can be a wild card for my team.

Adrian Gonzalez - 30 HR potential and is coming off a big power year in 2015. Feels like a poor man's Goldschmidt to me - just a steady, reliable source of HR's.

Alex Rodriguez - love where Alex is at right now in his life. Now going by Alex, not A-Rod, dating some old chick who has more money than he does, crushing the social media game, Jeter is gone, and seems completely relaxed and at peace with what he's doing. He eclipsed 30 HR's last year and with playing in the field seemingly out of the question, he's focused on hitting, has a better chance to stay healthy, and should continue to mash.

Let me know what you think - would love to hear some guys I may have missed on, particularly in the write-in section where it's wide open for opinion.


*I spent like one hour by the pool while on vacation in Florida on my phone casually looking up stats on ESPN.

The Oscars for Best Animated Film and Best Animated Short are locked up

Seth Rogen and his band of funny fucks are coming out with another gem, this time in animated form. If you haven't seen the trailer for Sausage Fest yet, it's a must watch (below). Based on the trailer, if the Academy has any balls this movie has already locked up the Oscar for Best Animated Film. And they should just give the trailer Best Animated Short, while they're at it. I can't wait to eat an edible and go watch this in theaters. I may need to book an entire row of seats so I can comfortably roll around on the floor laughing without disturbing other patrons.

Look at this roster of stars coming in for this one - absolutely absurd. Ed North is like 12th on the list and Salma Hayek got dumped on the bottom center justfied. That's when you know you're stacked to the brim.

h/t to Kevin for the link to the trailer. Somehow I hadn't seen it yet.

#DORK 44: WrestleMania 32 Preview

OR CLICK HERE

#DORK v Mac and Gu

#DORK 43: Batman v Superman

OR CLICK HERE

Batman vs. Superman Movies

Ranking all the Batman and or Superman movies.  

1. The Dark Knight

2. Batman Begins

3. Batman

4. Batman Returns

5. The Dark Knight Rises

6. Superman

7. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

8. Man of Steel

9. Superman II

10. Superman Returns

11. Batman Forever

12. Superman III

13. Batman and Robin

14. Superman IV: Quest for Peace

All-Time Baseball Movie Lineups

Besse and I recently recorded our "Baseball Movie" episode of #DORK (posted below) where we discussed the best and worst baseball films and more importantly came up with the best lineup/rotation possible based off of the fictional players.

TEAM KEEFE:

LINEUP:
1. Willie Mays Hayes, CF, Major League
2. Benny "The Jet" Rodriguez, SS, The Sandlot
3. Bobby Rayburn, LF, The Fan
4. Roy Hobbs, RF, The Natural
5. Clu Haywood, 1B, Major League
6. Jack Parkman, DH, Major League II
7. Roger Dorn, 3B, Major League
8. Crash Davis, C, Bull Durham
9. Kelly Leak, 2B, Bad News Bears

STAFF:
Steve Nebraska, The Scout
Eddie Harris, Major League
Nuke LaLoosh, Bull Durham
Rick "Wild Thing" Vaughn, Major League

TEAM BESSE:

LINEUP:
1. Benny "The Jet" Rodriguez, SS, The Sandlot
2. Juan Primo, CF, The Fan
3. Roy Hobbs, RF, The Natural
4. Rex "T-Rex" Pennebaker, LF, Mr. 3000
5. Steve Nebraska, DH/P, The Scout
6. Jack Parkman, C, Major League II
7. Lou Collins, 1B, Little Big League
8. Kelly Leak, 2B, Bad News Bears
9. Ray Mitchell, 3B, Angels in the Outfield

STAFF:

Steve Nebraska, The Scout

Eddie Harris, Major League

Billy Chapel, For The Love of The Game

Chet "Rocket" Stedman, Rookie of the Year

Rick "Wild Thing" Vaughn, Major League

TOP 5 MOVIES

Keefe

1. Major League

2. Bad News Bears

3. The Fan

4. Field of Dreams

5. Beer League

Besse

1. Field of Dreams

2. The Fan

3. Major League 

4. A League of Their Own

5. Rookie of the Year

#DORK 42: Baseball Movies

Best of Dirt

Recorded a podcast with Keefe for #DORK today where we discussed the best baseball movies of all time and our all-time starting lineup. It's great stuff, had a ton of fun doing it and we probably could've gone on for a few hours if we didn't give a shit about timing. I'm sure we'll get it up here soon to check out.

Anyway, on the podcast Keefe pitched "Beer League" as a great baseball flick, certainly an underrated one. Even though it's about beer league softball, it's allowed and a GREAT call. Which got me thinking, for as funny as Artie Lange is in the movie, Seymour Cassel steals the show for me as "Dirt". Here's a "Best of Dirt" clip from YouTube. My personal favorite comes at :21 - what a line.

#DORKmadness 1st Round "Upsets"

The 1st round of the 1st annual #DORKmadness is in the books and we did see a few "upsets" along the way.  Let's see which lower seeds you voted to advance...

9. Man of Steel (2013) over 8. Hellboy II: The Golden Army (2008)

10. Iron Man 3 (2013) over 7. Blade: Trinity (2004)

9. Captain America: The First Avenger (2011) over 8. Superman II (1980)

12. Iron Man 2 (2010) over 5. The Amazing Spider-Man (2012)

10. 300 (2006) over 7. Thor (2011)

9. The Incredible Hulk (2008) over 8. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (2007)

10. Thor: The Dark World (2013) over 7. Superman (1978)


Observations:  You all clearly love Iron Man movies and are too young to have either seen or enjoyed Superman.  And that's fine.  The people have spoken.

Keep up with the daily voting at @DORKpodcast to help crown the Best Comic Book Movie Ever in #DORKmadness.

Mark Hunt KOs Frank Mir

Yikes. Mir does not look great.

X-Men: Apocalypse Trailer 2

It's all of us against a god. #XMen #Apocalypsehttps://t.co/nLv2NAOjoY

— X-Men Movies (@XMenMovies) March 17, 2016

Vote in #DORKmadness

Now through the rest of the month you can VOTE to help decide the "Best Comic Book Movie" of all-time.  The match ups will be posted on Twitter: @DORKpodcast

You can also look at the bracket (in the post below) and send us your picks via e-mail: dorkpodcast@gmail.com

We look forward to seeing which film will win it all.

#DORKmadness Best Comic Book Movie

Fights to make after sorting through the carnage of UFC 196

It's been over a week since UFC 196 so I know we're late the game here. I have a full time job, so don't give me shit.

That being said, I feel like every journalist, blogger, and fan boy under the sun has written a recap and given their hot take on what the fuck happened. So I won't bore you with a traditional recap, nor will I spend this entire blog pontificating about how much money the UFC lost or why or why not McGregor and Holm should've taken the fights they did.

Did the UFC lose out on some massive PPV blockbusters? Of course they did. Had McGregor won it would've added even more allure to a showdown with RDA for the 155-lb strap or set up an even bigger fight with Robbie Lawler at UFC 200 for the 170-lb belt. For Holm, the rematch with Rousey was always the big money fight. Problem is, no one knew when Rousey was coming back. So yea, those are out the window after the massive upsets, but I actually think it positions the UFC even better b/c it's opened up and entirely new set of fights that bring a whole new level of intrigue and theater to the game. Here's my list of the fights I want to see coming out of last weekend's card - within each, you'll also get a sense of where my head is at for future matchups and how these help build for that:

Conor McGregor vs. Jose Aldo 2
After losing his test at 170, the logical thing for McGregor to do is return home to 145 and defend his belt. It gives him a chance to reassert himself as the king and fire back up the hype train on his way to another history-making fight.

With apologies to Frankie Edgar, who is incredibly deserving of a fight against McGregor, he's just not a big enough draw for the casual fan. For hardcore fans like myself and Keefe, we would LOVE a McGregor-Edgar fight to see how Frankie's movement, volume, chin, and wrestling match up against the 145-lb champ. But half the world saw McGregor dribbling Aldo's head on the canvas back in December, and a rematch against the former champ, who held the title for 10 FUCKING YEARS, is big money.

Should McGregor win, it sets up another move up in weight to 155. Should he lose, we have ourselves a trilogy fight that will be incredibly important for McGregor and the UFC.

Rafael dos Anjos vs. Nate Diaz 2
These two fought back in December 2014. Diaz hadn't fought in a year and RDA was coming off two stoppage wins over Jason High and former champ Ben Henderson. RDA won a decision and went on to take the belt from Anthony Pettis in his next fight. This is as good a time as any to book the rematch as both men are at peak status - Diaz coming off the huge stoppage of McGregor on less than two weeks notice, and RDA has won five straight including his recent 1st round stoppage over the tough Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone.

I love this fight for two reasons: 1) both guys are extremely marketable right now for the reasons listed above and 2) it becomes an elimination fight of sorts for the winner should McGregor take care of business against Aldo as I proposed above. Imagine the money they'd make if both McGregor and Diaz win - Diaz defending the strap as McGregor moves up and they fight at 155 vs. the 170-lb limit from UFC 196. And if both guys don't win? So what - there's still a lot to be gained in terms of matches to make from there. But if you aren't making fights with potential match-ups in mind, I don't know what the fuck you're doing.

Miesha Tate vs. Holly Holm 2
These two need to mix it up again. Holm was likely winning that fight but Tate's grappling in the 2nd had people on the edge of their seats, and her comeback win in the 5th was incredible, especially without it ended watching Holm punching the very thing she ran out of: air.

A lot of people are talking about the trilogy with Rousey, but I think this would be a mistake for a few reasons: 1) Rousey has dominated Tate is their previous two fights; 2) Rousey was talking about not coming back until end of this year - suddenly she's chomping at the bit w/ Tate as the champ because of my first point which seems so fucking disingenuous to me; and 3) I still think Holm-Rousey 2 is the bigger fight, but for the title. Holm can beat Tate with a better game plan - read: don't get taken down in the 5th round up 3-1 on the cards again - and set up the blockbuster rematch. Plus, keeping Rousey on the sidelines a bit longer while we wait for the results of this rematch makes us long even more. Absence makes the heart grow fonder. Don't you ever forget that.


In terms of when these happen, I'd love to see them all on the UFC 200 card in July. They want it to be huge, and putting these three title fights on one card would do the trick. And all of the participants should be cleared and able to get in a full camp by then. The variable in all this is Robbie Lawler. He's not booked for UFC 197, 198, or 199. MacDonald and Thompson fight in June, so you can count those guys out. Thus, you have to assume they're either talking with Condit about a rematch or trying to lure GSP out of retirement to headline 200 which would be massive. But I also don't think they'd want to stack the card with four title fights.

That being said, I do think if you make the first two fights noted above, they have to be on the same card. It helps align camps for a future fight and being able to build/promote that fight throughout the night and via post-fight interviews would be good for business. Plus McGregor is built for that UFC 200 card. So that drops the Tate/Holm fight out, which they could have a main or co-main in August. I think UFC 198 in May, as a co-main to Werdum-Miocic could be too quick of a turnaround, and UFC 199 in June already has two title fights with Rockhold-Weidman 2 and Cruz-Faber 3.

So that's where I'm at. We've got a great lineup of UFC events over the next few months and still a lot to be sorted out with some of the big names mentioned above. Should be fun to see how it all shakes out. And don't forget Hunt vs. Mir this weekend - both guys are pretty far back in the title picture at this point, but Hunt always brings the thunder and Mir showed his ability to take out a big puncher in his fight against Todd Duffee, so I'm expecting fireworks in this one. Prediction: Hunt via manslaughter due to punch.

Holy Shirts & Pants 2016 Roster

We had a crazy early Fantasy Baseball Draft due to a number of issues, but here is what I'll be working with to start to the 2016 season....

Rotisserie scoring: Runs-HR-RBI-SB-AVG-OPS and QS-W-SV-ERA-WHIP-K/9

C Yadier Molina
1B Paul Goldschmidt*
2B Kolten Wong
3B Josh Harrison
SS Xander Bogaerts*
OF Yoenis Cespedes*
OF Christian Yelich*
OF Billy Hamilton
UTIL Jose Abreu*
UTIL Alex Rodriguez

BENCH
Stephen Piscotty
Pedro Alvarez
Joc Pederson
Byron Buxton
Hyun Soo Kim

PITCHING
Madison Bumgarner*
Carlos Martinez*
Michael Wacha*
Wei-Yin Chen
Eduardo Rodriguez
Rich Hill

Hector Rondon
Drew Storen
J.J. Hoover
David Hernandez
Fernando Rodney

*keeper


Wish me luck...

WWE: Roadblock Match Card Preview

Tonight, WWE is hosting its network special, Roadblock, in Toronto at 8 pm. Much like the other network specials, this will act as a glorified house show to hold us over until the next PPV, which just happens to be WrestleMania. The card hasn't been officially confirmed as there are only five known matches and it is believed that there might be a few dark matches that aren't televised for us at home. But for now, let's take a look at the card.

Charlotte vs. Natalya

For the casual wrestling fan, you might not be too familiar with Natalya. That's because she has scarcely been used on TV due to her taking care of her injured husband (Tyson Kidd) and missing out on the big Diva's Revolution. BUT she is a Canadian and a member of the prestigious Hart family, so it makes sense to have her fight in The Six for a home crowd.*
There's been no word on whether it's for the title or not, but these two put on an all time performance down on NXT in 2014, so it should be an exciting match.

*I don't really understand how the geography of Canada works, so I just assume that it's always a home game whenever Canadians go back over the border.

The New Day vs. The League of Nations -- Title Match

This feud kicked off at Fastlane when the New Day, who weren't booked for a match, appeared on the Peep Show with Edge and Christian. They addressed the fact that they have dominated the entire tag team division, which lead to speculation of an NXT debuting (continue reading). Instead, we were treated to an appearance by everyone's favorite stable, The League of Nations. This lead to a build that is expected to culminate at WrestleMania with either another traditional tag team match, or possibly a 6 man tag. But tonight, we've come to a Roadblock.. haha.. and get an early preview of possibly what's to come between these two teams. Hopefully The New Day can stay champs forever.

Brock Lesnar vs. Bray Wyatt

The match that was expected to appear on the WrestleMania card has now been demoted to Roadblock. From what I've heard, that had a lot to do with Dean Ambrose's impressive performance in the build up to the Fastlane main event. Bray Wyatt is one of my personal favorites, but apparently he doesn't win matches anymore which isn't good when you're facing Brock Lesnar who doesn't lose matches. Something tells me this match isn't going to end clean.
#MakeTheWyattFamilyGreatAgain

The Revival vs. The Realest Guys -- NXT Tag Team Title Match

For those of you who don't watch NXT, please do. In this NXT showcase, we see the current NXT Tag Team Champions, The Revival (Scott Dawson and Dash Wilder) take on The Realest Guys (Enzo and Cass) in a title match. Enzo and Cass were believed to be surprise guests at Fastlane on The Peep Show to challenge The New Day, but that clearly didn't happen. However, it is believed that they will be getting a main roster nod around WrestleMania. Does that play a factor in how this match will end? Possibly. But this will be a great match nonetheless and Enzo and Cass' entrance might steal the entire show.

Triple H vs. Dean Ambrose -- Title Match

The match that I'd like to see at WrestleMania has at least been given to us at Roadblock. If you want to read my full rundown of why this should main event Mania, click here, because I get too passionate about this and typing it out again would bring out some feelings that I'm trying to suppress. It's hard to see a title change here because of the build up for Reigns/Triple H, but who's to say that a big swerve can't be thrown in here? Obviously Ambrose and Triple H are more than capable of tearing the house down in the ring, but in a painfully predictable match, would it hurt to throw in a shocker at the end? I certainly don't think so.

That's all we've got for the card right now. It's been said that there are expected to be some non-televised matches and some late additions to the card. Other Canadians like Kevin Owens, Y2J, and Sami Zayn are expected to make an appearance in front of their hometown(?) crowd too. What do you think?

Until then, I'll be resting my fingers for the WrestleMania preview. See you soon.

- Little Besse

Captain America: Civil War Poster and Trailer

I could do this all day. #TeamCaphttps://t.co/ficS7VFfQE

— Captain America (@CaptainAmerica) March 10, 2016

#DORK 40: Batman!

Bates Motel Seasons 1-3 Recap

Bray Wyatt In The Title Picture?

Game of Thrones Season 6 Trailer

The #GoTSeason6 trailer is here. 4.24.16
(WARNING: MATURE CONTENT)
“Wicked Game” performed by @jamesvmcmorrowhttps://t.co/fqTBOqr1pW

— Game Of Thrones (@GameOfThrones) March 8, 2016

Graphic Novel Pick of the Week: Nemesis

This week's "Graphic Novel Pick," (it's not something we've done, but maybe we should) is Nemesis, written by Mark Millar and drawn by Steve McNiven, the same duo that brought us Old Man Logan and Civil War.  

The premise is essentially, what if Batman was The Joker?  What if a crazy rich, ridiculous fighter, was a super villain instead of a super hero?  It's sweet.

It's a quick read, just 4 part stand alone book that doesn't feature any characters you've ever seen before.

There's been talk about a movie for years, Tony Scott was set to direct before his death (via Wikipedia) and now Warner Bros. apparently has the rights.

Give it a read!

UFC 196 McGregor vs. Diaz Fight Predictions

Yesterday the main and co-main events were made official as all participants hit the scales, and made weight, for their respective fights tonight at UFC 196. And with that come fight predictions from The Sports Brief's self-proclaimed, resident MMA expert blogger. Keefe tweeted out our predictions for the two headliners last night, but below is an analysis as well as a bonus breakdown from tonight's card.

UFC 196 Picks:
Besse: McGregor RD1 KO, Holm RD2 TKO
Keefe: McGregor RD2 KO, Holm decision

— The Sports Brief (@TheSportsBrief) March 4, 2016

Main Event: Conor McGregor (C-FTW) vs. Nate Diaz (#5 LW)
As Mystic Mac has said himself, one goes down, another steps in. It's the fourth time in eight UFC fights McGregor has seen a late fill-in due to injury, though the last two have gotten much more publicity due to the enormity of both fights. First it was Aldo dropping out of their title bout at 189 and Mendes stepping in. Now it's dos Anjos bowing out of what could've been a historical moment - McGregor vying to become the first UFC fighter to hold two belts simultaneously - and Diaz stepping in.

One of the biggest challenges for a fighter stepping in on short notice is cardio - we saw this with Mendes as he took McGregor down in the 1st and seemed to be positioned well, only to gas in the 2nd where he ultimately fell due to strikes. But with Diaz, I'm less concerned for a couple reasons - a) he and his brother typically stay in relatively good shape between fights. Though Nate is the big triathlete, Nate is known to train with him. And b) I don't see this fight going beyond the 3rd round as both men love to strike, and strike well.

McGregor will obviously need to combat Diaz's reach and heavy volume of striking, particularly the jab that allows him to keep opponents on the outside, in his range, and break down them down over the course of the fight. Once Diaz starts putting combinations together and following up the jab with a straight and some hooks, the cumulative toll of the shots makes up for what Diaz make lack in one-punch power.

But McGregor's movement, particularly under the tutelage of Ido Portal, has made him a significantly improved striker who does possess the one-punch knockout power. Just ask Aldo.

So you've got two guys who love to strike and motherfuck anyone within an earshot, and that'll certainly give us fireworks. But where things particularly interest me is on the ground. I don't anticipate McGregor taking the fight to the floor - Diaz working from his back is a magician. Nor do I think Diaz tries to take McGregor to the mat due mostly to arrogance but also because I think McGregor's strength of wrestling defense will help negate that. I go back to the movement, however, and whether McGregor at any point throws an exotic type of kick or movement that misses the mark and leaves him off balance. It happened to Weidman in his fight against Rockhold, led to Rockhold gaining control on the ground, and was the beginning of a long sequence of punishment that carried into the 4th round before Weidman succumb to strikes. In this case, I think McGregor needs to be cautious of finding himself in a similar position, involuntarily taking the fight to the mat where Diaz suddenly has an opening to put his jiu-jitsu to work. I think it would end quickly if this happens. But let me clear in that I don't necessarily foresee this happening, I just think this is a possible scenario in which the fight does in fact go to the mat where Diaz holds a HUGE advantage.

In terms of the outcome, I'm going McGregor by 1st round KO. I think these guys will feel each other out for the 30 seconds or so with pawing jabs and feints, then they'll go to work and it will be fireworks. I see McGregor utilizing the movement to create an angle that opens up a big shot, a left uppercut or overhand right, that stuns Diaz before the featherweight champ pounces and puts an end to the fight.

McGregor by 1st round KO

Co-Main Event: Holly Holm (C) vs. Miesha Tate (#2 BTW)

I love Miesha Tate. Everything about her except for the nickname Cupcake. And as much as she claims she's the perfect opponent to defeat Holm, I actually think she'll play right into her hands moreso than Ronda Rousey did. Tate's game is all about aggressiveness and turning it into a dogfight. There's a reason that, before Holm stopped Rousey, she had given the former champ the most problems and lasted longest inside the cage with her. She's tough, durable, and fights with a reckless abandon that creates matchup problems. 

But I said it before the Holm-Rousey fight and will say it again - Holm's striking is far superior than anyone the women's side of the sport has ever seen. She's a former multi-time boxing and kickboxing champ. And she has excellent takedown defense as we saw against Rousey. I'd go so far as to say she's a better version of Chuck Liddell was in his time b/c her striking is crisper and sharper - but the skill set is the same.

I think Tate comes out and looks to make it ugly, and while her striking might be more polished than Rousey's, she'll get picked apart much like Ronda did. Holm will use her movement and angles to avoid the clinch, and her strength to keep Tate off her for extended periods. While I don't see this one ending as quickly as the main event, I also don't believe we go to a 3rd round. Tate will make it fun while it lasts, but by the end of the 2nd she'll be fading from the cumulative toll of Holm's work before combination staggers her to the floor where Holm follows with more punishment before the ref steps in to save the challenger.

Despite the loss, it won't change how I feel about her.

Holm by 2nd round (T)KO stoppage due to strikes

Gian Villante (#13 LHW) vs. Ilir Latifi (NR)

There are three reasons I'm even bothering to weigh in here: 1) I love Villante from Weidman's camp during Embedded leading up to the fight against Rockhold. 2) Villante had a sick KO of Anthony Perosh in his last fight.

And 3) Latifi knocked a dude out by punching him in the neck in his last fight.

I have no prediction for this fight except for fireworks and I can't fucking wait.

Bonus Pick for Gamblers

I got McGregor (-450) and Holm (-270) as a parlay at -148. I'm making it a 4-unit bet for tonight's fight.

Should be a great night of fights. Enjoy!!!

UFC 196: McGregor vs. Diaz

MCGREGOR vs DIAZ!!! pic.twitter.com/jsOqcsrK9Y

— Dana White (@danawhite) March 5, 2016

#DORK 39: Best HBO Shows

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