I got invited to join a HR pool this year. I'd heard of them before and I think I might have even joined one like five years ago then completely forgot about it and didn't bother to pay attention. I'm assuming I didn't win. Regardless, for some reason this year I was all-in on doing it, most likely because I'm pretty jacked up about my fantasy keeper team in the Player Haters' Ball league with Keefe, Shark, Woody and a cast of other characters. When you've got the likes of Bryzzo - that's Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant combined, for those of you living under a rock - Correa, Altuve, Marte, JD Martinez, Sale, Keuchel, and more, you have good reason to feel good. I'll post my team in a separate blog later so you can rub one out to the full roster.
Anyway, I spent a lot of time looking at it, examining historical data of players, projections, and ballpark trends*, then submitted my final roster yesterday. Here's how it works - there are nine roster spots across four different groups, or tiers. Group A is your premier power hitters and you choose one guy. Group B is the next tier, you select two. Group C is the next tier below that, and you select three. Then you write in three guys, so that makes it really interesting. A little wrinkle from the commissioner - you can sub for a player one time at any time in 2016, and you get credit for homeruns to date plus homeruns from your new player thereafter. However, you must sub with a guy from the tier below - you can't sub in from the same group.
For example, if Stanton is out for the season starting May 23, I could sub in someone from Group B, e.g. J.D. Martinez. If Giancarlo had 10 HR's to date, I get credit for his 10, plus however many HR's Martinez hits starting May 23.
Thanks to Jon Couture of the Boston Herald and Standard Times for the invite. Here's the squad:
Group A (one player)
Options: Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Giancarlo Stanton, Chris Davis
My pick: Giancarlo Stanton
Rationale: The player with the most prodigious homerun power in the game is coming off a year in which he was injured, missed more than half a season, and still hit 27 homeruns. He comes in healthy and with Barry Bonds as a hitting coach. You fucking kidding me? Look, I have all the respect in the world for Trout, Harper, and Davis. Those guys can easily hit 35-40 dingers. But Stanton could hit 60 if he stays healthy. I don't get bonus points for distance - I should - but I'll have a lot more fun rooting for his mammoth power than I will any of the other guys.
Group B (two players)
Options: Anthony Rizzo, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado, David Ortiz, J.D. Martinez, Josh Donaldson, Miguel Sano, Nelson Cruz
My picks: Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado
Rationale: This was a tough group to pick out of for a number of reasons. I've got Rizzo and Martinez on my fantasy team, so easily could've gone with either of those guys. The three TOR guys all mash and could easily hit 35-40. Ortiz is a 30 HR guy, but he's old and even though he starts slow then always comes on and proves the doubters wrong, I wouldn't be comfortable with him on my squad. Sano is too much of a question mark and I just simply don't care for Cruz playing on a shitty team in a shitty park.
I went with Bryant for three reasons: 1) on my fantasy team, so more fun to root for him; 2) huge power, and I've read several scouting reports over the last couple years that say he's got 50 dinger potential; and 3) I really like his potential with nearly a full season under his belt where he hit 26 after going 0-fer in April and with how loose and loaded the Cubs are - I think it helps him relax and do his thing in 2016.
With Arenado it was tough mentally and emotionally. I'm still scarred from trading him to Woody last year. It was May 17, he was hitting .280 but only had 3 HR's and, while steady, hadn't really lit it up. Bryant was warming up and he was always my long-term guy, so I used Arenado as leverage to upgrade at SP and RP. Woody sent over Shelby Miller, who was 5-0 at the time with a sub-2.00 ERA and like a top-5 SP on the player rater. I also picked up Luke Gregerson from the Astros to round out my stable of closers. Then Arenado went on to hit 43 bombs, including 9 in May, 12 in June, and 11 in September and Shelby Miller didn't win a game for like 17 consecutive starts. Fuck me. But you can't ignore Arenado's power at Coors Field, and with the spring he's having, I had to do it. It'll be bittersweet everytime he launches one into orbit, but I'd rather have him than not have him.
Group 3 (three players)
Options: Adam Jones, Carlos Gonzalez, Jay Bruce, Kyle Schwarber, mark Teixeira, Todd Frazier, Albert Pujols, Chris Carter, Jose Abreu, Lucas Duda, Paul Goldschmidt, Yoenis Cespedes, Byung-Ho Park, Evan Gattis, Justin Upton, Manny Machado
My Picks: Todd Frazier, Paul Goldschmidt, Manny Machado
Rationale: A lot of guys to pick from here, so I won't go into much detail on those I didn't select. Goldschmidt for me was the easy pick in the group. He's as complete a player as you'll find, a top-3 fantasy pick in my eyes, and fresh off a 33 HR season. He hit 36 in 2013, was injured in 2014, but returned to form last year and will continue to rake. Automatic and reliable for this particular group.
I really liked Frazier with his move to Chicago and hitting in the same lineup as Jose Abreu. He's in the beginning of his prime and after seeing his homerun totals climb from 19 to 29 to 35 in 2015, I love his potential to hit 35 again and possibly even reach 40.
And lastly was Machado. Another 3B. Man this position is loaded right now. The kid broke out last year as a 22-year old with 35 bombs after only playing half a season in 2014 due to injury. Hitting in the same lineup as Crush Davis, a group A guy, and Adam Jones, a fellow Group C guy, and Camden Yards has been a top-10 HR friendly ballpark every year since 2006 excluding 2014 when it was 20th. I love this pick.
A few notables I passed on:
Carlos Gonzalez - another 40 HR guy in the COL lineup last year, but injuries are a big question with him. Couldn't risk it with his health concerns.
Kyle Schwarber - love this kid's power, but he's a positional mindfuck and Joe Maddon loves to tinker with different lineups, matchups, etc. I feel like he could lose some starts via various platoon situations.
Mark Teixeira - loved his potential with that short porch in right, but another guy whose injury history concerns me.
Write-Ins (Choose 3)
Carlos Correa - I thought this was my sexiest pick on the roster. Hit 22 HR's in 99 games last year and will only get better. My hope is he'll be a guy people miss and can be a wild card for my team.
Adrian Gonzalez - 30 HR potential and is coming off a big power year in 2015. Feels like a poor man's Goldschmidt to me - just a steady, reliable source of HR's.
Alex Rodriguez - love where Alex is at right now in his life. Now going by Alex, not A-Rod, dating some old chick who has more money than he does, crushing the social media game, Jeter is gone, and seems completely relaxed and at peace with what he's doing. He eclipsed 30 HR's last year and with playing in the field seemingly out of the question, he's focused on hitting, has a better chance to stay healthy, and should continue to mash.
Let me know what you think - would love to hear some guys I may have missed on, particularly in the write-in section where it's wide open for opinion.
*I spent like one hour by the pool while on vacation in Florida on my phone casually looking up stats on ESPN.
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