Who Is The Favorite In The American League?

The AL appears to be wide open right now as the trade deadline approaches.  I personally like the Blue Jays to end up on top, but take a look at these intriguing numbers I put together and you decide...

Record (as of 7/21): 
1. Indians
2. Red Sox
3. Rangers
4. Blue Jays

Run Differential:
1. Indians
2. Blue Jays
3. Red Sox
4. Astros

Vegas:
1. Rangers +325
2. Indians +375
3. Blue Jays +550
4. Red Sox +600

Top 2 Starters Amongst Contenders:
1. TOR Aaron Sanchez/ Marco Estrada (both sub 3.00 ERA)
2. CLE Danny Salazar/ Corey Kluber
3. TEX Cole Hamels/ Colby Lewis or Yu Darvish whoever is healthy
4. BOS David Price/ Rick Porcello
5. BAL Chris Tillman/ Kevin Gausman
6. HOU Doug Fister/ Collin McHugh

Top Bat Amongst Contenders (using WAR):
1. TOR Josh Donaldson
2. HOU Jose Altuve
3. BOS Mookie Betts
4. BAL Manny Machado
5. TEX Ian Desmond
6. CLE Francisco Lindor

Besse's starting squads for the '09 All-Star Game

Well the 2009 All-Star game is almost here, and the races are certainly heating up a few positions. I’ve personally always felt that a fan voting system for All-Star starters is flawed, because while there will always be deserving players who don’t make the game, you hate to see guys getting a start when someone far more deserving should be out there. This seems to particularly be the case in 2009, as several positions are being led by players who should not be in such a position. Those individual cases will be address throughout, but below is my assessment of who is most deserving to start the game, make the team as a reserve, and which players are deserving but just miss the cut. I’ve done my best to make judgment calls without emotion or bias towards a particular player. The picks are as objective as one could be in performing a subjective task.

American League

First Base

Starter: Justin Morneau

Reserve: Miguel Cabrera

Apologies to: Victor Martinez, Kevin Youkilis, Mark Teixeira, and even Russell Branyan

This position has a ton of depth, perhaps the most of any in the AL. Youkilis’ stock dropped because of some time spent on the DL, but he does lead first basemen in OPS. Teixeira may be clocking homeruns and driving in a plethora of runs, but his low average and the inflated homerun rate at Yankee Stadium don’t help his cause. Morneau continues to fly under the radar. He is my pick as the starter, but I would have no problem reserving him and having Cabrera as the starter. Morneau is showing .313/19/64, which is a damn good line. He was solid in April (.318/5/18) while Mauer was on the DL. And while he had been having a poor month of June, his last couple games in which he homered twice and drove in 3 have put it on par with April. Cabrera, meanwhile, leads the position with a .332 batting average, and he’s sporting 16 homers and 47 RBI (all better than Youk) with punch and judy hitter Magglio Ordonez behind him. And poor Russell Branyan. The guy is batting over .300 and has hit 19 homeruns. Unfortunately his team sucks, and no one is ever on base; 12 of those shots have been solo jacks and he only has 40 RBI. Ridiculous.

Second base

Starter: Aaron Hill

Reserve: Robinson Cano

Apologies to: Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, Brian Roberts

This is an absolute no-brainer. Hill has been ridiculous, and you have to wonder if he’ll slow down at any point. The LSU product, once compared to Garrett Chin (or was it the other way around? Either way, it was inaccurate.) has hit .305, clubbed 19 homers and driven in 56 runs. Who would’ve thought? No one, that’s who. There’s no way anyone ever saw this coming, which makes it even more incredible. And he’s been doing this mostly out of the 2-hole for a team that has been inconsistent both offensively and in the win column.

Cano has been solid with a .300/12/42 line. But he’s dropped off from that fast start he had in April. To me, he should get the nod over Pedroia and Kinsler, who are battling it out for the starting position and I can’t figure out why. Kinsler is hitting .267. Sure he’s got 19 homers, 51 RBI and is 16-18 in stolen bases, but that average is brutal and it just keeps getting worse. Remember when he was hitting .300? Hasn’t been since the middle of May; he’s hitting .245 since the start of May. And Pedroia is having a rather pedestrian season. .287 is nothing to sneeze at, and there’s no power there. His SB success rate is down from last year, as well. Roberts will most likely never be an All-Star again in his career, which is sad because he’s consistently good every single year. This year is no different. Across the board his numbers are better than Pedroia. And yet he’s not even in the top-5 in voting. Hill is currently fourth in the voting, and I’m blown away by that. It’s situations like this where we should realize how flawed the fan voting system is. And that’s not the only one either. Once the starters are announced I’ll have more to discuss on that end.

Third Base

Starter: Evan Longoria

Reserve: Michael Young

Apologies to: Brandon Inge, Scott Rolen, Chone (Shawn?) Figgins

Another no brainer here, and thankfully justice will most likely be served. Sadly, we’re looking at an All-Star game without A-Rod. Even worse is that he has absolutely no argument to play in this game. Longoria is far and away the best at his position. His average has dropped significantly over the past month (he’s hitting .233 in June), but .300 is where he’ll most likely be come the end of the year. The power numbers are there, and it’s crazy to think that he’s only been in the bigs for a calendar year.

For the reserves, it’s gotta go to Young. The guy made the move from short to third to make room for up and comer Elvis Andrus, the Rangers shortstop of the future. He made no fuss about the transition, and his numbers show how selfless a player he is; they haven’t sputtered. Inge could be just as deserving. While his average is a good 40 points or so below Young, he leads the position in homeruns (18) and has driven in 52 runs. He’s been crushing the ball, and he also leads the BBTN clubhouse on the web gems leaderboard. Rolen and Figgins are quietly having nice seasons as well, but most likely haven’t done enough to warrant a spot in the game.

Shortstop

Starter: Jason Bartlett

Reserve: Derek Jeter

Apologies to: Julio Lugo (kidding), Nick Green (also kidding), Jed Lowrie (still kidding)

Let’s face it: this is a seriously weak position in terms of talent and depth. Sure, Jeter and Bartlett are both having great seasons, but beyond that there’s no one even worth mentioning and still being taken seriously. I looked yesterday and saw that Jeter is 17 for 18 in steals. That’s ridiculous. Where did that even come from? Not to mention he’s hitting .307 with 9 homers and 32 RBI, but he’s one of those guys that should be penciled in to start the All-Star game every year by default unless someone is playing out of this world.

This year just so happens to be that year. Bartlett is the best shortstop in the American League right now. He’s hitting .366/7/36 and is 17 for 18 in SB’s. Not only that, but his defense has been sound, having committed only 5 errors thus far. Sure, he hit the DL with that ankle sprain, but this situation differs from first base with Youkilis because of the lack of depth at the position. As much as I feel Jeter should start at short in the ASG until he dies, Bartlett is having too good of a year for that not to be recognized with a starting nod.

Catcher

Starter: Joe Mauer

Reserve: Victor Martinez

Apologies to: A.J. Pierzynski

Same situation as shortstop, but even more different. Mauer has been off the chain since he returned in May from the DL. He went on to hit .414/11/32 in the month of May. Right now he sits overall at .383/14/43. Safe to say he’s returned to planet Earth, especially in the power department, but the numbers are still ridiculous. Martinez, meanwhile, should make the All-Star Game based solely on the fact that he could easily make an argument for his place in it at two positions. Let’s hope either way, they find a spot for him. Pierzysnki is the only qualifying catcher worth discussing. He’s hitting .294/8/24 which isn’t spectacular, by any means, but looks damn good stacked up against the rest of the position.

Outfield

Starters: Jason Bay, Ichiro Suzuki, Carl Crawford

Apologies to: Curtis Granderson, Adam Jones, Torii Hunter, Nick Markakis, Johnny Damon, Jermaine Dye

I don’t know how many reserves they’ll take, so saying that, I’ll just offer apologies to certain players instead of listing reserves as well.

Jason Bay’s production (19 homers, 69 RBI) make up for his .267 average. Ichiro is a hitting machine and leads the AL in average (.373) among qualified hitters. And Crawford is batting .323 which is nice…but it’s the 40 stolen bases that separate him from anyone else. He’s exciting, electrifying and second in the AL in runs scored.

Torii Hunter may be the most deserving of the reserve candidates to start. He’s having a solid season at .306/17/57, anchoring a lineup that didn’t have Vlad for a while and still doesn’t really have him as he’s brought nothing to the table. Granderson’s average sucks but his power numbers are startling when you look at his wiry frame. Markakis could hit for a little more power but he’s driving in runs and teetering around .300. Jones, meanwhile, has really hit the skids in June, but his overall body of work is impressive. Damon leads the AL in runs scored and is experiencing a renaissance of sorts. Remember, this was the season that the Red Sox wouldn’t budge on. Giving him a fourth year was out of the question because they were convinced he’d be completely irrelevant come the final year of his contract. Good call. If the All-Star Game was in another month, BJ Upton might sneak onto that list. Too bad he hit a buck in April. Meanwhile, Jermaine Dye goes about his business while no one notices, nor cares. He’s hitting .295 with 18 HR and 45 RBI. And his OPS is .933. The guy can flat out hit.

Utility/Designated Hitters

Since the game is in an NL park this year, the DH position doesn’t work out. Sorry to Adam Lind, who is hitting .312 with 15 homers and 52 RBI. He should make the team as an alternate and certainly get an AB. A guy like Jason Kubel (.308/13/42) kind of gets jobbed here, as well. Another guy that should make the ASG IMO (gay, I know) is Ben Zobrist. At what position? Who knows, who cares. He pretty much qualifies for all 9 of them, so put him wherever you want. But you can’t deny he’s been lights out in the first half, and he didn’t even play regularly until Iwamura went down in late May. At .290/16/46, the guy has been a tremendous pick up for that lineup and their offense hasn’t skipped a beat. He’s 8 for 10 in steals, too.

Starting pitching

Starter: Zack Geinke

Reserves: Roy Halladay, Justin Verlander, Kevin Millwood, Felix Hernandez, Edwin Jackson, Cliff Lee

Apologies to: Josh Beckett, Jered Weaver, Tim Wakefield

Since we’re dealing with a lot of names here, I won’t include everyone’s stats, just a brief idea of why I feel they’re deserving. Greinke gets the start, but I feel had Halladay not gone on the DL, he could have warranted it instead. Greinke has an ERA over 4 in the month of June which could have swayed the opinion of those making the decision, Halladay wasn’t great in his return and the overall numbers lean towards Greinke. Verlander has been lights out since a rough April and leads the league in K’s. Millwood has a sub-3 ERA pitching in a park where careers go to die. King Felix is finally realizing his potential, and his last 7 starts are evidence of that. Jackson has been tremendous for a rotation that is much improved from its disastrous letdown a year ago. If you told me at the start of the season he’d be second in ERA behind Greinke at this time, I would’ve called you an a$$hole. The last spot is a toss up, but I like Lee here despite getting rocked last night. Beckett had a really rough stretch of games to start the season, and Lee has been consistently good throughout while pitching for the worst team in the Central division. That and he’s the reigning AL Cy Young winner, so I give him the benefit of the doubt.

But if Beckett goes out and tosses a gem against the Orioles today, whom he’s had some trouble dealing with in the past, he could edge out Lee. Like Hernandez, Beckett has been great over his last 7 starts. Just ask Heidi Watney, she’ll tell you all about it. Oh wait, no she won’t, she missed out on that question. Weaver has come out of nowhere to help hold together a pitching staff that started the season with its three best pitchers on the DL. And Wakefield is a nice story, again. Too bad he is just out on the fringe of contenders, again. In fact, I’m getting aggravated with everyone in “Red Sox Nation” clamoring for Wake to make the game. He’s getting run support, that’s the only reason he has 10 wins. The guy’s ERA is over 4.

Bullpen

Relievers: Jonathan Papelbon, Joe Nathan, Frankie Francisco, David Aardsma, Mariano Rivera

Apologies to: Bobby Jenks, Scott Downs, JP Howell, Joakim Soria

Papelbon, Nathan and Rivera are no surprise. Francisco and Aardsma certainly are. And they’ve earned it. You could argue there are guys with more saves who are more deserving, and the fact that Francisco spent time on the DL and Aardsma took over late after Morrow blew (literally and figuratively). But both have provided such stability to fledgling pitching staffs, that I feel they should be rewarded. Francisco only has 12 saves, but a 1.23 ERA. Aardsma has 16 stops with a 1.49 ERA, and both have only blown one save opportunity.

Jenks gets the shaft because of his ERA, which is above 3. That’s unacceptable. Soria was also on the DL but hasn’t worked as much as Francisco. Downs would’ve been a lock, but he’s out for another four weeks or so. Tough luck, kid. And for Howell, I wouldn’t mind if he replaced someone who opted out over a guy like Jenks. He was steady setting up and now that he’s taken over as the closer, his resume has beefed up even more. He’s 4-2 with a 1.63 and 6 saves thus far. And he hasn’t allowed an earned run since May 23.

National League

First Base

Starter: Albert Pujols

Reserve: Prince Fielder

Apologies to: Ryan Howard, Adrian Gonzalez, Todd Helton

Here’s a question: Which league has the better pool of first basemen? Hard to tell in my eyes. The one thing helping the NL is that it has Albert Pujols. Either he or Longoria are the most clear cut choice at a position. His numbers are staggering: .332/30/77 with an OBP of .453 and OPS of 1.197. That’s absolutely ridiculous. The guy is the best hitter in the game currently not suspended.

Fielder is my choice as the reserve over notables such as Adrian Gonzalez (low average), Todd Helton (not enough power), and Lance Berkman and Ryan Howard (low average, far less RBI’s). The fact that Prince has 74 RBI when you consider he has Ryan Braun hitting ahead of him with 57 is impressive; that team can flat out score runs, which is why they’re fourth in the NL in RS.

Second base

Starter: Chase Utley

Reserve: Orlando Hudson

Apologies to: Freddy Sanchez, Felipe Lopez, Skip Schumaker and Clint Barmes

This is kind of a weak position for the NL, certainly in terms of depth when compared to the AL. A lot of punch and judy hitters, certainly more than the AL counterparts. Utley is having a solid season, batting above .300 and hitting for solid power (17 and 52). You could make a case for Hudson as a feel good story of sorts, but there’s no power there and the averages are pretty comparable. Utley has driven in more runs and the stolen bases don’t create an advantage toward either man. But Hudson should certainly be the reserve here.

Guys like Sanchez, Lopez Schumaker and Barmes are all having nice seasons, but neither can stack up against Utley, and Hudson has just been too well rounded not to garner the reserve role. I wouldn’t mind seeing Uggla and his 15 monstrous bombs in the Home Run Derby again though.

Shortstop

Starter: Hanley Ramirez

Reserve: Miguel Tejada

Apologies to: Christian Guzman, Yunel Escobar,

So much for the NL’s “Big Three”. Ramirez is still king, and it’s incredible to see his numbers (.341/13/56) after he got off to such a mediocre start in April. He only had 2 homers and 12 RBI, but a big May really jumpstarted things for him. Jose Reyes has been on the DL for a large part of the season, and Rollins just flat out stinks right now. That leaves us with the former MVP, juicehead and senior citizen Tejada. He’s stroking at .332 right now and has some decent power numbers. The RBI total is second only to Ramirez among shortstops, and he’s tied for second in runs scored, also behind Ramirez.

Guzman is hitting for average like he always does when he’s healthy, but there’s no power there at all. Escobar is having a well rounded season, but the average could use a boost up from .291 to get further consideration.

Third Base

Starter: David Wright

Reserve: Pablo Sandoval

Apologies to: Ryan Zimmerman, Pedro Feliz, Chipper Jones, Casey Blake, Mark Reynolds

Wow, there’s some serious talent and depth at the hot corner in the NL. I wouldn’t have a problem seeing any of these guys playing in the All-Star game because they’ve all performed well across the board or extremely well in one or two categories. The starter should probably be Wright, but certainly not because of his power. His game has changed in that he doesn’t hit as many homeruns, but he’s hitting .345, has driven in 42 runs and stolen 20, yes that’s right 20, bases. Part of the production problem is the Mets offense being so stagnant these days. Delgado, Beltran, Reyes, et al have had injury troubles, and he’s really the only significant hitter remaining in the lineup. The Mets are trotting out a JV lineup with one kid in the lineup that should be playing on Varsity, let’s look at it that way.

The reserve situation is a little hairy. Sandoval is probably the most deserving, albeit unexpected candidate on the board. If you wanted to get really fussy, you could probably argue he should start over Wright. He’s hitting 40 points higher than Zimmerman, and he only has two less homeruns and four less RBI. Not only that, but his OBP, SLG and OPS are all much, much higher.

Also missing out are a crop of third basemen who are having great starts to 2009. Chipper Jones is off pace from last year’s torrid start in a big way, but by no means are his numbers paltry. Casey Blake came out of nowhere in May to post a .353/4/18 line, which was huge after Manny got suspended. He has cooled off a bit in June but the overall numbers are still extremely respectable. Feliz, meanwhile, hasn’t done much except drive in runs when guys like Utley, Howard and Werth can’t do it…he has been struggling lately, including an 0 for 19 slump after I picked him up in one of my ESPN leagues, but not a bad season so far for a guy buried in a potent Phillies’ lineup. But he’s batting .500 with 2 bombs and 3 RBI in his last 3 games which makes me feel good. Reynolds is turning into Adam Dunn with a higher average, although not by much. This guy drops bombs but strikes out at an alarming rate. Nonetheless, you can’t dispute the guy’s power, it’s legit. Get him in the Homerun Derby

Catcher

Starter: Brian McCann

Reserve: Yadier Molina

Apologies to: Ugh, I don’t know, Bengie Molina and Chris Iannetta?

I know McCann has missed time and AB’s but the gap between him and the next best catcher is as wide as the Grand Canyon. Talk about a drop off in talent. Last year the catchers in the NL were aplenty with the likes of Geovany Soto and Russell Martin in the mix. Neither of those guys are very good this year, and Yadier is even a stretch. McCann has to get the start here, he’s far and away the top guy. This is another position at which the fan voting is showing how flawed it is this year. Clearly because the game is in St. Louis, the front office is sitting around all day submitting multiple All-Star ballots online.

Bengie and Iannetta are the next best options, but if either of those guys start or play in the All-Star game, I’ll no longer watch.

Outfield

Starters: Ryan Braun, Brad Hawpe, Raul Ibanez

Apologies to: Justin Upton, Carlos Lee, Hunter Pence, Matt Kemp, Carlos Beltran

Couple DL guys here in Ibanez and Beltran. Ibanez should be healthy in time for the game, so he definitely gets a start. The guy is crushing and on pace to dominate any season highs he’s had in the power department. Hawpe is third in RBI, Braun second among outfielders; Ibanez is the leader and he’s been out for two weeks. But Hawpe and Braun find themselves in the top 5 in average, RBI, OBP, SLG and OPS.

The younger Upton has really turned the corner this year, and if Ibanez couldn’t go, he’s my pick to replace him. He’s hitting .320 with 14 HR and 45 RBI and has 10 steals to go with it; the five tool player that he was drafted as. Lee and Pence are two-thirds of the Astros outfield and both are having productive seasons. Pence has added some power to compliment his speed, and Lee is doing much of what he normally does (.301/12/45). I’d pick Lee over Pence, but I don’t like either guy going to the game straight up. Obviously injuries will open up slots, and I’ll take Lee first. But not before Kemp, who is filling the stat sheet with his .306/10/41 line. His 18 steals in 21 attempts is excellent, and he has been tremendous at the bottom of that Dodger lineup. Beltran is in a tough spot here, as he was having a nice, well rounded season before hitting the DL. It’s a tough call with him.

Starting pitching

Starter: Dan Haren

Reserves: Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Josh Johnson, Yovani Gallardo, Javier Vasquez, Johan Santana

Apologies to: Chad Billingsley, Zach Duke, Johnny Cueto, Jair Jurrjens

As much as I want Matt Cain to get the nod, it has to go to Haren here, especially after he did it again last night with 7 innings and only 1 run on 4 hits and 9 K’s. It’s fairly obvious. The guy pitches for a shitty team, so his record stinks, but he leads the NL in ERA, IP and WHIP and is second in CG and third in K’s.

The only debate can be issued with the final spot. Does it go to Santana or Billingsley? Much like Torii Hunter winning a Gold Glove every year, I say it goes to Santana just because the numbers are so close and he’s the incumbent. Duke, however, could sneak in as the Pirates pick. Unless that goes to Freddy Sanchez at second base. That will leave someone out who is more deserving.

Bullpen

Relievers: Francisco Rodriguez, Jonathan Broxton, Heath Bell, Trevor Hoffman, Ryan Franklin

Apologies to: Brian Wilson, Huston Street, Francisco Cordero

I don’t know who is more deserving to serve as the “closer” in this game. Franklin has been lights out with his 0.93 ERA, and he wasn’t even the closer at the beginning of the season. That went to Jason Motte, who lasted about five minutes in that role. K-Rod has been spectacular and Heath Bell is quietly putting up one heck of a season over in San Diego as your league leader in saves. Hoffman, meanwhile, has converted 18 of 19 saves and is proving father time does not exist in his neck of the woods. Amazing to think he started the season on the DL and has come back in such dominant fashion. The last spot, in my eyes, gets a bit dicey. Brian Wilson’s 22 saves put him one behind Bell in the top spot, but as usual, his ERA is garbage. Street lost his closer job in April after posting a 6.10 ERA, then got it back and saved 6 games in May and 11 games in June. He’s looking more like the guy we used to watch in Oakland. Cordero is finding it hard to get recognition, as is anyone in Cincinnati. The Reds suck, but Cordero doesn’t. 18 of 19 saves converted and a sub 2 ERA. If Cueto doesn’t make the squad, Cordero could be the guy since no one else on that team is very deserving.

So there you have it. Please keep in mind that these stats do not reflect the games played today, Wednesday July 1, 2009. I mainly just wanted to provide recognition to the guys who I think deserve to start and who are in the running. Obviously the fan voting will differ in a few areas, and some of them will be ludicrous. After that has closed, I’ll be chiming in with my thoughts on what the worst starting picks were.

-Bess

Assessing MLB hardware at the break

With the All-Star break now in effect, I thought I’d chime in on the status of races for some of Major League Baseball’s prestigious hardware to be awarded at the conclusion of the season. Included are my personal opinions on frontrunners, contenders, dark horses and those who should be in the discussion but will fade down the stretch. So without boring you with any more of an introductory paragraph, let’s get to it!

AL MVP
My Frontrunner: Josh Hamilton, OF Rangers
In contention: Francisco Rodriguez, CP Angels; Jermaine Dye, OF White Sox; Justin Morneau, 1B Twins
Lurking behind: Alex Rodriguez, 3B Yankees
Fading down the stretch: Kevin Youkilis, 1B Red Sox; JD Drew, OF Red Sox

I was tempted to argue that Jermaine Dye has been more valuable to the White Sox than Hamilton to the Rangers. Dye is hitting .306 with 21 HR and 56 RBI for a team that was never even considered to be competitive in the AL central with the Tigers and Indians expected to duke it out. And while the Rangers are off to a 50-46 start due to a potent offense that includes Ian Kinsler, Milton Bradley, Michael Young and David Murphy, it’s been Hamilton who has anchored that lineup since Opening Day. His .310 average is higher than Dye’s, he has the same amount of homers (21) and his 95 RBI are the 5th most ever before the All-Star break. It’s hard not too root for the guy after everything he’s gone through. Could Jeff Allison find the same success for a MLB club in a couple years?

K-Rod should definitely garner some votes as his 38 saves are the most ever before the All-Star break, and clearly the reason the Angels are tied with the Cubs for best record in all of baseball. Morneau, meanwhile, leads the Twins in average, homeruns, RBI and OPS with an impressive .323/14/68/.903 line. Lurking in the pack for me is A-Rod. He’s the best hitter in baseball and despite missing time due to injury, sports a .312/19/53/.972 line. In June, he hit .366 with 9 homers and 23 RBI. With Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreau hitting well around him, pitchers may have to give him something to hit more often, and that’s just scary. He could definitely lead the Yankees to a wild-card berth which would certainly make for a solid argument.

Youkilis and Drew, meanwhile, are certainly worthy of discussing now but will definitely see their arguments weaken during the 2nd half. With David Ortiz poised for a July 25th return, their impact will not be as significant. For Youkilis, he’ll need to avoid the 2nd half pitfalls that have haunted him thus far in his career. The guy leads the Red Sox in average (.314) and RBI (63) and is on pace for career highs in most statistical categories. Drew, meanwhile, is having an output that most baseball pundits have sought from the underachieving 5-tool player his entire career. His .302/15/55/.984 line is solid, and we all remember the ridiculous month of June he had with a .333 average, 12 bombs and 27 RBI. But the Sox offense is balanced throughout that production seems to come from a different guy every night. That being said, you’ll be hard pressed to find a guy with a significantly higher rate of production than say, Hamilton, who has 35 more RBI than David Murphy, 2nd on the team.

Final prediction: Hamilton holds on and Disney swoops in for a movie deal.

AL Cy Young
Frontrunner: Cliff Lee, Indians
In contention: Justin Duchscherer, A’s; Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
Lurking behind: Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
Fading down the stretch: Mike Mussina, Yankees; Joe Saunders, Angels

There’s a reason Lee was selected to start the All-Star game, and that’s because he’s been the best pitcher in the AL all season long. He started the season 6-0 with seven quality starts and has allowed two runs or fewer in 13 of his 18 starts. He’s tied with Joe Saunders for the league lead in wins with 12, sports a 2.31 ERA and 106 strikeouts to compliment a 1.03 WHIP, which is awesome for a starting pitcher.

The case for Rodriguez is the same here as it was for MVP. Duchscherer doesn’t have the strikeouts or win total that Lee presents, but his 1.82 ERA and 0.87 WHIP might have you thinking he’s still a reliever and not a converted starter. The guy has been ridiculous, allowing more than 2 earned runs in an outing only once this season, and that was a 5-2 loss to Atlanta in which he surrendered 3 earned over five innings. But I think the A’s have overachieved, and with Harden gone to the Cubs, Duchscherer will be leaned upon even more. He’s a former reliever, so I wonder if he’ll fade down the stretch at all, but with the A’s offense relatively weak, I don’t think he finishes with more than 16 wins.

Halladay, meanwhile, has thrown seven complete games, two shutouts, 146.1 IP, has 11 wins, a 2.71 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 121 strikeouts. This guy is a gamer and one of my favorite pitchers in all of baseball because of his willingness and ability to go deep into a game every night. The Blue Jays won’t make the playoffs, but Halladay is a seasoned veteran who racks up the IP total every year. He’s a former Cy Young winner (2003) and I think he could sprint ahead down the final stretch and win it.

Mussina (11-6, 3.61 ERA) and Saunders (12-5, 3.07 ERA) have been solid so far, but I don’t think either have enough in the tank to keep it up, nevermind win a Cy Young. Besides, come season’s end, Saunders will be the 3rd or 4th best starting pitcher on that staff and his closer may have a better case than he does.

Final Prediction: Halladay remains consistent throughout the 2nd half, tossing three more complete games including another shutout to win his 2nd Cy Young.

AL Rookie of the Year

Frontrunner: David Murphy, OF, Rangers
In contention: Evan Longoria, 3B Rays; Jacoby Ellsbury, OF Red Sox
Lurking behind: Joba Chamberlain, SP Yankees

Everyone is obsessing over Longoria, including me; I drafted him on all three of my fantasy baseball teams this year (same with Joba). But quietly, David Murphy is putting together a similar if not better season statistically than the Rays third baseman. Murphy is hitting .276 with 13 homers and 60 RBI, is striking out at a far lower rate and has an OPS of .783. Longoria, meanwhile, has hit .275/16/53/.861, but he’s a freer swinger than Murphy having struck out 17 more times in 46 fewer at bats. Murphy is hitting in a better offensive lineup so he’ll probably get more opportunities to drive in runs. Ultimately, however, I think the hype train and media blitz surrounding Longoria will turn attention away from Murphy and he’ll most likely fly under the radar. If he continues to produce, let’s hope he at least gets some recognition.

Ellsbury has been everything the Sox could have hoped for in the leadoff spot. His line of .269/5/27 are average at best, but his 35 stolen bases in 42 attempts and 60 runs scored bode well for his campaign. He played with success down the stretch last season, so his experience in that environment should mean he continues his production for Boston come late in the season.

Chamberlain, meanwhile, is still in the midst of a conversion from reliever to starter for the Yankees. He’s 2-3 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Most impressive for me has been his ability to continue striking out hitters at a high frequency as a starter (9.9 K/9as compared to while being a reliever (11.4 K/9). His high ceiling and growing familiarity with being a starting pitcher make him my dark horse down the stretch. With seasoned veterans like Mussina and Andy Pettite on the staff, he’s learning from two greats on how to be a successful starter, and I think he’ll continue to develop and prosper as the year goes on. He was preseason pick for ROY, and while he’s definitely not a front runner at the moment, I think his ceiling is extremely high and he could make a great case come the end of the year.

Final Prediction: The hype train is just too much for Murphy, Ellsbury and Joba to overcome as Longoria finishes with 30 homeruns and claims the ROY award.

AL Manager of the Year

Frontrunner: Joe Maddon, Rays
In contention: Ron Gardenhire, Twins; Terry Francona, Red Sox
Lurking behind: Joe Girardi, Yankees; Jim Leyland, Tigers
Fading down the stretch: Ozzie Guillen, White Sox; Ron Washington, Rangers

What the Rays have done over the first half of the season has been nothing short of amazing and spectacular. Despite the fact that the team has lost seven straight, it’s still only a half game behind the Red Sox. With a nice mix of youth and veterans in the clubhouse, the Rays could certainly be right in it till the end. Many thought they’d continue to improve this season, and perhaps finish 3rd or 4th in the ever competitive AL East, but no one ever expected this. Joe Maddon deserves a lot of credit for what he’s done, and if he can right the ship after the All-Star break, this team could be tough to put away.

Gardenhire, meanwhile, is another manager who has defied the odds; but then again, that’s the Twins seem to do every year. Just when people write them off, they rise and put together a solid campaign. That’s exactly what the team is doing in 2008, fresh off the trade of Johan Santana, continued struggles of Francisco Liriano, and an offense that lost Torii Hunter in the off-season. Young pitching, a top notch closer and a timely offense have this team in the thick of the AL Central race.

Francona should probably be up here every year. The guy deals with the toughest market in the country and his squad has been riddled with injuries over the course of the season. Yet he's managed to regain the AL East lead with a mix of veteran leadership and youth. Putting Drew in the 3-hole during Ortiz's absence was brilliant. And the bullpen has been awful, but Francona has mixed and matched different combinations to make up for less than mediocre talent. Winning two World Series championships in four years is quite an accomplishment, and he's poised for another.

I think Guillen and Washington have both done a terrific job in leading their teams this first half, as well. The White Sox are atop the AL Central and the Rangers are over .500 and playing competitively. However, I don’t think either team will make the playoffs and both will fade in the 2nd half, thus diminishing any chance of post-season honors for these two men. Both teams will suffer from a lack of consistent starting pitching, and the Rangers don’t have a bona fide closer; CJ Wilson is one of those guys that exemplifies why the save statistic can be overrated.

My sleepers for the 2nd half are Girardi and Leyland because both managers saw their ball clubs get off to horrible starts. Yet both have seem their teams rebound nicely in June and July and I think they’ll continue to do the same the rest of the way. The Yankees offense has been torrid of late, and with Chamberlain solidifying that rotation and Rivera at the back end, look for this team to contend for the wild card spot. I’ll be even more convinced if the Yankees snatch up a Brian Fuentes type reliever to add to the bullpen. The Tigers, meanwhile, are much like the Yankees in that it’s a team with a scary offense. The starting pitching was awful to start the season, but Verlander has turned it around and Kenny Rogers has been surprisingly effective. Although Bonderman is done for the season, Armando Galarraga has been a nice addition. This team will need Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya to stay healthy and be the lights out, 1-2 tandem they were expected to be. Todd Jones sucks, but chances are he’ll be protecting a lot of 3-run leads anyway.

Final prediction: The Rays will rebound from the 7-game slide and stay in the mix until the bitter end. Maddon wins a fairly competitive vote over Gardenhire.

NL MVP

Frontrunner: Hanley Ramirez, SS Marlins
In contention: Chase Utley, 2B Phillies; Albert Pujols, 1B Cardinals
Lurking behind: Pat Burrell, OF Phillies; David Wright, 3B Mets
Fading down the stretch: Lance Burkman, 1B Astros; Chipper Jones, 3B Braves

The Marlins are 50-45 and only 1.5 games behind the Phillies for 1st in the NL East despite clearing the payroll during a fire sale last offseason. There are many nice stories in that Marlins clubhouse, including Dan Uggla, Jorge Cantu and Ricky Nolasco, but Ramirez is the guy that makes this offense so dynamic. His line of .311/23/45 is stunning from a leadoff hitter and he’s most likely going to finish with a 40/40 season. And amazingly, A-Rod is making more than the entire Marlins roster this season. Keefe reminded me of this earlier then said, "That kills me." It kills me too.

While everyone has been clamoring for Utley to make it three Phillies’ players in the last three seasons, I’m just not convinced Utley has MVP credibility. He’s putting together a nice season hitting .291 with 25 homeruns and 69 RBI, but he’s only hitting .261 over the last two and half months and his power has dropped significantly. He hits in the middle of a potent lineup, but with Pat Burrell and Ryan Howard producing as much, if not more, I think Utley’s resume takes a bit of a hit.

Pujols garners extra attention because of the Cardinals surprising first half coupled with the fact that Albert is producing at a .350/18/50 clip. He’s arguably the best hitter in the game and his presence in the middle of that lineup has always made it dangerous. But with the emergence of power threats Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick and the offseason trade for Troy Glaus, Pujols is only 3rd on the team in homeruns and tied for third in RBI. If St. Louis makes the postseason as a wildcard, not only will Tony Larussa be a favorite for manager of the year, but Pujols should be in the discussion as long as his production doesn’t drop, which it shouldn’t. If not, he’ll just chalk it up as another great season.

Players to watch are Pat Burrell and David Wright. Both are putting together solid 2008 campaign. Burrell, an All-Star snug in my opinion, is in the midst of a contract year, and while his .275 average is rather pedestrian, his 23 homers and 57 RBI are exceptional. I think he’ll turn it on after the All-Star break, but hitting behind Utley and Howard, he’ll continue to do it rather quietly. If either of those guys start to falter and Burrell continues to produce, a Phillies’ playoff berth may justify his consideration. Wright, meanwhile, is boasting a .282/17/70 line thus far. Unlike last year, the Mets will be playing from behind this 2nd half, and if the team makes a run, it will most likely be because of Wright in the middle of that lineup. With the firing of Willie Randolph and mediocre play to start the season, capturing a playoff berth would be substantial. I think Wright could be a dark horse if that happens.

Final prediction: The Mets make the playoffs thanks to a huge 2nd half from Wright, thus awarding him the MVP.

NL Cy Young

Frontrunner: Tim Lincecum, Giants
In contention: Edinson Volquez, Reds
Lurking behind: Johan Santana, Mets; Dan Haren, Diamondbacks; Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
Fading down the stretch: Ben Sheets, Brewers; Carlos Zambrano, Cubs

Lincecum and Volquez have been out of this world, and at this point, it’s hard to believe that either guy will slow down, barring injury. This could very well be a two horse race to the finish with a cluster of guys not far behind in the second pack. Their stats are more or less comparable, their WHIP exactly the same. Lincecum has one less win, but one less loss. Volquez has a slightly lower ERA, but less innings pitched, thus less strikeouts. Both guys play on bad teams, neither of which will make the playoffs.

The National League is loaded with great pitchers, any of whom could probably make a case for Cy Young at the end of the season. If Dan Haren, Brandon Webb or Santana pitch their respective teams into the playoffs, there may be a case there. But I think along with Zambrano, Hamels and even a guy like Ricky Nolasco, it’ll just be a bunch of terrific seasons that were outdone by two other guys. The fact that Sheets and Zambrano have Sabathia and Harden, respectively, joining them at the top of the rotation makes them less attractive options to me in terms of standing out.

It’ll be hard to determine until the very end, but unless one of those guys in the second tier of pitchers runs the table and single handedly leads his team to the playoffs, I think it’ll be either Lincecum or Volquez.

Final prediction: Volquez is in the tougher division and Lincecum benefits from the lowly NL West to win the Cy Young.

NL Rookie of the Year
Frontrunner: Geovany Soto, C Cubs
In contention: Kosuke Fukudome, OF Cubs
Lurking behind: Jair Jurrjens, P Braves
Fading down the stretch: Jay Bruce, OF Reds; Joey Votto, 1B Reds

The cast of characters isn’t as impressive to me as the AL group of newbies. Soto seems to be the leading guy right now, as he leads in every major statistical offensive category except OBP, an honor which goes to Cubs teammate Fukudome. Bruce was the big story when he first arrived in Cincinnati, and teammate Votto got off to a nice start as well. Votto’s longer tenure is most likely the reason he sits at 13 homers and 40 RBI compared to Bruce’s 6 and 21. But neither has done much of anything the last two months, and the honeymoon seems to be over.

My preseason pick was Fukudome, but he’s hit a snag over the last few weeks particularly, then dropping his stock. I think he’ll rebound nicely and finish around .290 with 15 homers and 65-70 RBI, but Soto already has 16 bombs and 56 RBI. Unless Soto goes 0 for the world over the next month or so, which I don’t expect to happen, I think he’ll continue his steady play and take the prize.

The interesting guy to watch is Jurrjens over in Atlanta. Pitchers aren’t usually the popular pick for ROY awards, which is why my Joba pick likely won’t pan out. He’s 9-4 with a 3.00 ERA and 10 quality starts in 16 appearances. With John Smoltz and Tom Glavine on the shelf due to injury and the return of Mike Hampton still on hold, he’s been terrific all season and quite a surprise staple in that rotation. Don’t sleep on him.

Final prediction: Soto wins NL ROY.

NL Manager of the Year

Frontrunner: Fredi Gonzalez, Marlins
In contention: Charlie Manuel, Phillies
Lurking behind: Jerry Manuel, Mets;
Fading down the stretch: Tony LaRussa, Cardinals; Joe Torre, Dodgers

What Gonzalez and the Marlins have done so far this year is remarkable, sitting only 1.5 games behind the Phillies in the tight NL East race. If his team can finish with 80+ wins, I think he deserves it regardless of where the Marlins finish in the standings. Even if they go sub 80 in wins, he should still get a ton of consideration. This team was a joke heading into the season, yet I don’t think there’s anyone that wants to face them. He seems to be pulling all the right strings, and there’s a lot of young talent in that lineup and rotation that could see them legitimately contending in a year or two before another fire sale.

Manuel has done a great job with that Phillies team, and if he gets some reinforcements in his pitching staff, it’ll be a formidable contender heading down the stretch. Do I think he can win it? Sure. Do I think he will? No. But if the Phillies win the NL East, he’ll be in the conversation, especially if they pull away.

Jerry Manuel has won nine straight and the Mets are right back in it. I’m not sure how managers who take over mid-season fare in the topic of conversation, but I think he’s the dark horse here. Especially if David Wright takes over and leads the Mets to the postseason, which was my prediction in the NL MVP discussion.

Joe Torre was my preseason pick, and while the Dodgers could very well win the NL West, the division sucks. I could probably manage Chico’s Bail Bonds to the division title and I still wouldn’t be up for consideration. It’s a lose/lose over there. If you win, it’s not impressive because the level of play has been so poor. And if you lose, you start to wonder if your team should be exiled to the Pacific Coast League.

Keefe made a valid argument saying that if either the Cubs or Brewers finish with the best record, then Lou Pinella and Ned Yost will be discussed. I agree, but to me these other guys warrant more consideration.

Final Prediction: Gonzalez and the Marlins finish at .500 and he takes the award for his troubles.


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-Bess