The NBA is back. What better way to spark the conversation and get attention than a trade rumor involving two of the league's Top 5 point guards? It appears as though Danny Ainge and the Celtics are extremely interested in Hornets All-Star Chris Paul and are willing to trade away their All-Star point guard Rajon Rondo to make the deal happen. Will it happen? Should it happen? Let's check the tale of the tape first. Rondo vs. CP3.
Rajon Rondo
Age: 25
Current Contract: 4 years remaining at a total of $46 million
NBA Seasons: 5
Games: 384
Career Averages: 10.7 points, 7.6 assists, 4.4 rebounds, 1.9 steals, 48.6% FG
2010-11: 10.6 points, 11.2 assists, 4.4 rebounds, 2.3 steals, 47.5% FG
Playoffs: (78 games) 13.8 points, 8.5 assists, 5.8 rebounds, 1.9 steals, 43.7 % FG
Achievements: 2-time All-Star, NBA Champion, 1st Team All-Defense (2), 2nd Team All-Defense, All-Rookie 2nd Team
Chris Paul
Age: 26
Current Contract: 1 year left for $16.36 million (player option for '12-'13 for $17.78 million)
NBA Seasons: 6
Games: 425
Career Averages: 18.7 points, 9.9 assists, 4.6 rebounds, 2.4 steals, 47.1% FG
2010-11: 15.9 points, 9.8 assists, 4.1 rebounds, 2.4 steals, 46.3% FG
Playoffs: (23 games) 21.9 points, 11.1 assists, 5.3 rebounds, 2 steals, 49.3% FG
Achievements: 4-time All-Star, All-NBA 1st Team (1), All-NBA 2nd Team (1), All-NBA 3rd Team (1), All-Defense 1st Team (1), All-Defense 2nd Team (2), Rookie of the Year
CP3 also gets a huge nod in free throw shooting and 3-point shooting. He is 85% at the line, and 36% from deep for his career while Rondo is a sad 62% and 24%.
Both the statistics and the eye test prove that Chris Paul is a better player overall than Rajon Rondo. That is not breaking news. However a trade for the two All-Star point guards is not nearly that simple. Would Paul sign an extension to stay in Boston? Does he think that an aging Paul Pierce and what Avery Bradley, JaJuan Johnson, maybe Jeff Green look like a solid foundation? Is that better than any of his Hornets teams?
The Paul extension really is the beginning and end of the conversation. If the answer is "No." or even "We'll see." I'll have to pass on the deal. And why would he want to sign with the Celtics again? Exactly.
If, for some magical reason, he would rather play in Boston than in New York with his buddies Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire, or even stay in New Orleans where he has played his entire career and is the face of the franchise, it's still not a slam dunk. As it stands now, Rondo, Pierce, and Bradley are the only players under contract for next season. So obviously there will be a dozen more guys signing. If Chris Paul opts out of his player option to become a free agent, he is walking away from close to $18 million in guaranteed money for next season. Therefore he is going to cost a pretty penny.
Paul could make more money over a longer period of time staying with the Hornets (this is also where sign and trades come in to play as well.) But let's just say he makes between $18-20 million dollars a year for the next 4 years in this "dream" scenario where he comes to Boston. You still need to surround him with talent, and clearly more than just a David West, Tyson Chandler, or Emeka Okafor. We've already seen how far that can go.
Regardless of what happens, the Celtics are going to go through a major makeover for the 2012-13 season and beyond. I don't know all the players who will be available and (almost as important) interested in coming to Boston, but I do know that Rondo will be anywhere from $5-10 million cheaper than CP3. You can get a pretty good player for that price.
I'm looking forward to seeing how this all plays out. And the conspiracy theorist in me wonders if Ainge and the Celtics are leaking this story just to get some talk going concerning the Celtics. I mean you got the defending Stanley Cup Bruins, who are 11-0-1 this month, the Patriots looking to be the #1 seed in the AFC and the Red Sox just hired Bobby Valentine. How else can you still some headlines than with a "trade your only good young player" rumor.
Either way, I'm just glad we're talking about the NBA again.
-Keefe
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