Well, folks, UFC 100 is finally upon us. Just over 12 hours from now Mike Goldberg will open the show and then we'll here his patented line, "and I'm joined as always by my partner Joe Rogan." We're being treated to an absolutely stacked card, and we can only hope that some of these fights on the main card will end early so we can get a look at some of the preliminary fights. I'm not going to give a thorough, fully detailed breakdown of each fight, but I'll pick my winners below and offer a brief synopsis of my thought process on why I'm making that pick. Without further ado, let's get to it:
Brock Lesnar v. Frank Mir - UFC Heavyweight Championship
My pick: Frank Mir by 3rd round submission
If you watched the weigh-in yesterday, Mir looks to be in fantastic shape, the best of this point in his career. Since his most recent comeback, he's a more cerebral, calculated and dedicated fighter than he's ever been, and tonight will be his moment in the spotlight. Utilizing his improved footwork, I look for Mir to pick his spots on his feet and wear down and frustrate Lesnar. By the third round, Lesnar's gas tank will begin to depleet and Mir will take full advantage, pulling guard and submitting Brock to become the undisputed heavyweight champion.
Georges St. Pierre v. Thiago Alves - UFC Welterweight Championship
My pick: St. Pierre by 4th round (T)KO
Alves will give St. Pierre all he can handle early on, but it just simply won't be enough. St. Pierre is the champion for a reason, and he'll do all he can to avoid getting chopped down by the vicious leg kicks of Alves. It will be close after two rounds, but St. Pierre's impressive cardio will come into play, and he'll start to mount a charge in the third round. There, I look for him to press Alves against the cage, wear down his opponent, and set up a fantastic finish in the fourth. He'll score a takedown and work his way to a convincing ground and pound victory, leaving us all wondering if his next move is to middleweight to take on Anderson Silva in a superfight.
Dan Henderson v. Michael Bisping
My pick: Henderson by decision
Bisping is a talented middleweight and will one day challenge for the title. Heck, he may even win it. But it won't happen going through Henderson, not at this point in his career. Hendo knows what he has to do to get another shot at Silva, and he knows what he'll have to do to beat Silva, as well. Throw a few bombs and set up a take down, and stick to his bread and butter ground and pound. That's what he'll do tonight. Bisping may be the quicker, more technical striker, but he reminds me a lot of Joe Calzaghe. Not to compare the two by any means, but within the context of MMA and UFC, that's what I see: a guy with fast hands whose damage comes merely by accumulation of punches, not power. He won't hurt Henderson, but Henderson will hurt him. A few bombs will put Bisping on shaky legs, and Henderson will start landing some takedowns. He'll grind his way to a decision win.
Jon Fitch v. Paulo Thiago
My pick: Fitch by 2nd round (T)KO
Thiago scored a flash knockout over Josh Koscheck and had been getting dominated prior to it. Perhaps it was Koschecks fault for trying to replicate his hellacious KO victory over Yoshiyuki Yoshida last December. Nonetheless, let's not crown Thiago just yet. Fitch is at the top of the sport in his division and he won't make the same mistake as his training partner at AKA. He'll wear down Thiago in the first and pound his way to victory in the second. Overall, a dominant showing by the former title challenger and a fall back to Earth for the promising prospect, who may be in over his head on this one...in fact, I thought he was against Koscheck, but that's what happens with 4oz. gloves. Anything can happen.
Yoshihiro Akiyama v. Alan Belcher
My pick: Akiyama by 1st round submission
Sure, Belcher spoiled the debut of middleweight superstar Denis Kang. But it was a guillotine chock off a takedown attempt. That happens and doesn't necessarily speak to a phenomenal jiu-jitsu game or a dominant performance. I look at it as a guy taking advantage of another man's mistake. Akiyama won't do the same thing. This guy is the real deal, and he should steamroll right through Belcher with a first round submission. Look for Akiyama to be clamoring for a title shot in early to mid 2010.
Preliminary Bouts:
Mark Coleman (15-9) vs. Stephan Bonnar (13-5)
Bonnar by 3rd round (T)KO
You have to respect everything Coleman has done for the sport and the fact that he's still competing at his age. But the guy has never adjusted to the fact that his gas tank is the size of a walnut. Plus there are rumors circulating that the former heavyweight had a lot of trouble with this cut. This fight should get Bonnar back on track, as he'll avoid an early flurry from Coleman and take it to deeper waters. Watch Coleman's tank run on "E" in the latter half of the fight as Bonnar begins to pick him apart and finish him on their feet.
Mac Danzig (21-6-1) vs. Jim Miller (13-2)
Danzig by 2nd round (T)KO
Everyone is picking Danzig to lose to Miller; everyone is also extremely high on Miller. So am I. But I'm going with a minor upset here. Danzig is a talented fighter, but he needs a win here to stay in the UFC. Miller has a promising, long career ahead of him within this organization. Danzig is motivated, and has the skillset to compete with a lot of talented lightweights. He'll utilize his wrestling and avoid a slew of submission attempts from Miller before working to side control and eventually the mount. GnP win for Mac.
Jon Jones (8-0) vs. Jake O'Brien (11-2)
Jones by spectacular death
Watch Jones masterfully pick apart O'Brien before turning the lights off with an early KO in the second round. It will be a contender for KO of the Night.
Dong-Hyun Kim (11-0-1) vs. T.J. Grant (14-2)
Grant by 2nd round submission
That blemish on Kim's record is a NC against Karo Parysian, a fight which he lost but had overturned after Parysian tested positive for god knows what. Certainly wasn't steroids, look at the guy. Grant is a submission guy, and a talented one at that. He'll work the fight to the ground and eventually lock one in.
C.B. Dollaway (11-2) vs. Tom Lawlor (6-2)
Dollaway by 1st round steamroll submission
Jesus, I'd stand a better chance against Dollaway. Good for Lawlor dropping weight, and he's a great personality and entertaining guy. But this is a showcase fight for Dollaway before they have him take the leap to the next tier of talented fighters in the middleweight division. Lawlor won't stop anything in this fight, most certainly not a takedown and submission quickly in the first.
Matt Grice (9-2) vs. Shannon Gugerty (11-3)
Gugerty by 3rd round submission
This could be your Fight of the Night. Grice can bang, and he got caught in his last fight against Veach and had trouble recovering. But up until that point, he'd been outclassing Veach on his feet. The decision was a disputable one, and you know he'll bring it tonight. But Gugerty has excellent submissions, and I trust has learned a lot from his submission loss to perennial contender Spencer Fisher at UFC 90. These guys will go to war for 2.5 rounds before Gugerty lands on the mat with Matt (like that?) and locks in a fight ending submission.
So there you have it. An excellent card throughout, hopefully we'll get to see some of these preliminaries.
Also, you'll notice on the sidebar that we've posted a link to my Twitter page. My Twitter name is @tbesse29. Keefe may be joining soon, as well, but for now, I'd love to have anyone and everyone following me on Twitter. Tonight I'll be tweeting during the fights, posting results, thoughts on the action and possibly even scoring rounds as they happen. Feel free to check it out, follow me and enjoy the action from your phone, especially if you can't watch the fights anywhere tonight but want updates. And I welcome any and all comments and thoughts on the action as we follow it tonight. Enjoy.
-Bess
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