I'll start this blog by saying I'm as Even Steven as it gets when it comes to picking games. Like one of those assholes on Draftkings who uses formulas and programs to create 100 different lineups, I could submit 100 different sets of picks in a given NFL week and still go 8-8. It's how I roll. That being said, here are my picks for the 2016 season Wild Card weekend. All lines pulled from Sportsbook.ag, where I spend my money:
Chiefs at Texans (+3, O/U 39.5)
Some big news coming out this morning that Jadeveon Clowney wasn't activated by Bill O'Brien and ran out of the stadium like a chick who just got dumped. It's a big story, but it won't change my pick nor do I think it has an impact on the game.
The Chiefs come in on the heels of a 10-game winning streak, while the Texans won a shitty division whose other three teams won a total of 16 games. The Chiefs started the season 1-5, going 1-4 against current playoff teams. They only played two playoff teams during their 10-game streak, beating the Steelers at home vs. Landry Jones and the worst Peyton Manning we've ever seen. The Texans, meanwhile, went 1-3 vs. playoff teams. Conclusion: neither team has won nor proven shit. So how do we pick the game?
I'm leaning Texans for a few reasons:
- They're at home
- Bill O'Brien is a good coach whose managed to get quite a bit out of the team that had to start four different QB's this year, none of whom are all that great. Hoyer is the least worst.
- Hopkins and Watt - both guys can change the game on their respective sides of the ball
- Andy Reid - I'm convinced he'll fuck it up by mismanaging timeouts
Alex Smith has been solid this year and has a bunch of weapons, but I think the Texans D will either get to him or the Chiefs will dedicate so much attention to stopping Watt that they mute their own offense in the process. The Texans offense isn't great, but Hoyer can sling it to Hopkins all day and they've got a few guys in the backfield that can do some different things, change pace and get first downs. I like the Texans to cover at home in a close, low-scoring affair.
The pick: Texans +3, Under 39.5
Steelers at Bengals (+2.5, O/U 45.5)
The Bengals are starting A.J. Mccarron at quarterback and I think this is going to work out better for them. Not having Dalton removes the "can't win a primetime or playoff game" discussion and they can go in with nothing to lose except a playoff game for which they'll get a free pass anyway since they don't have their starting QB. It's a win/win even if they lose.
Mccarron, meanwhile, is 2-1 in games he started (NOTE: Dalton sucked in the 33-20 loss to the Steelers before bowing out). And Mccarron's loss was at Denver on Monday night in OT. I think we've got a bit of a Brady/Bledsoe thing brewing - not to say he can take them all the way, b/c if they win today I maintain the Pats beat them next week anyway. But he's played well, has two really good RB's in Hill and Bernard, stud receiver in AJ Green and a solid TE option in Eifert. Plus the defense is excellent, they're at home, and Big Ben has been turnover prone in the last several weeks.
On the flip side, the Steelers offense is still explosive but a couple things working against them this week:
- They're down to their 3rd and 4th options at RB. One guy whose name I don't know and am too lazy to look, and Todman whose name I only know because he's from Dartmouth, MA, just up the road from where I grew up.
- Their defense sucks, so Mccarron can ball a bit
- Turnovers - Big Ben has been trying to force it lately, and I think the Bengals' D can make him pay
The pick: Bengals +2.5, Under 45.5
Seahawks at Vikings (+4.5, O/U 39)
I've heard quite a few people opting to jump on the Vikings bandwagon the last few days and I'm just not buying it. Bridgewater sucks, so there's no reason the Seattle D can load up the box to stop Peterson and force him to try and take on their secondary. The receiving corp isn't anywhere near the level they need to be to compete with Sherman & Co. I look back at the 38-7 whitewashing by Seattle earlier this year and don't think that was necessarily a fluke.
Lynch being out doesn't necessarily worry me, either. This offense rides with Wilson and they've been lights out in the passing game. Christine Michael isn't a bum - he can bring some value in the running game and open things up for Wilson through the air. It's going to be cold AF out there, but I think all that'll do is prevent Seattle from hitting the 30's b/c of a couple dropped balls here and there. I've got them dominating this one pillar to post and riding off to the Divisional Round with a 24-10 win.
The pick: Seattle -4.5, Under 39
Packers at Redskins (-1, O/U 45.5)
I LOVE Cousins and the Redskins in this one. Won 4 straight to close the year and scored over 30 in three of the four games. That offense is rolling and is loaded with weapons, plus Sam Shields, the Packers top corner, is out. I think this really lends itself to Desean Jackson breaking a couple big plays, and Jordan Reed is going to be a handful for the Packers' D to handle. He's as good as it gets at the TE position right now. And Cousins, to his credit, finds anyone and everyone in that offense. Garcon and Crowder have been effective in the passing game, as well.
The Packers come in reeling, and as bad as they've played there's always the fact they have Aaron Rodgers. But for Patriots' fans like myself, we all know that even when you have Da Gawd Tom Brady behind center, without any weapons even he can't win a Super Bowl on his own. You get steamrolled like they did at home against the Ravens back in 2010. I see this being a pretty close game throughout, with Rodgers getting a couple late chances to tie or win the game in the closing minutes but ultimately failing to convert and the Redskins holding serve at home and advancing to the next round.
The pick: Redskins -1, Over 45.5
-Besse
