Sunday, March 11, 2012

Trying to understand the Colts and Redskins

Update 3/11/12, 11:39am: According to ESPN's dynamic duo of Chris Mortensen and Adam Schefter, sources close to Manning say he's narrowed his choices to Denver and Arizona. Suprised that Miami isn't a bigger contender, but Denver would be interesting. Catch the story here: http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7672173/2012-free-agency-peyton-manning-favors-denver-broncos-arizona-cardinals-sources-say

As I sit here on Sunday morning in San Francisco, watching golf and waiting for this brief bout with constipation to end, I thought it was the perfect time to sum up some thoughts from conversations with folks this week regarding the Colts and Redskins and their bold moves in recent days.

At face value, a lot of people questioned the moves by both teams - the Colts releasing 14-year veteran and arguably the greatest QB of his era, Peyton manning, and the Redskins trading three 1st rounds picks (2012 - 2014) and a 2nd-round pick to move up four spots in the 2012 draft for RG3. I'm here to tell you why I agree with the Colts decision and disagree with the Redskins, and why I find the timing of both moves ironic. I'll start with the Colts.

I get why a lot of people think it's a stupid move. Manning is one of the best in the game, has been the QB for the last 14 years, and their now banking on Andrew Luck being their (successful) franchise QB for the next 10-15 seasons. It's a huge risk. Luck isn't a lock. He hasn't taken an NFL snap. And aside from his neck, which has been medically cleared by doctors, there's no reason to think Manning's skills have diminished.

But let's not forget that the Colts were on the hook for $28 million with Manning. And that was just a one-year option. He turns 36 this year, and while he could easily play into his 40's, you just don't know. Yet 15 years ago, the Colts were coming on a 3-13 season, in need of a franchise QB. They selected Manning as their man. And while they easily could have stuck with Manning to remain competitive in the next few years, look at what's around him. He doesn't have a great backfield anymore - Addai can't stay healthy and productive, the other guys suck - and the defense is getting old and remains unreliable. It was the perfect time to clean house, start over, and rebuild like they did 15 years ago. Manning went 3-13 in his first year, then 13-3 in 1999 after the Colts trade Marshall Faulk to the Rams and drafted Edgerrin James in the 1st round. Not to say Luck will follow a similar path, but the Colts now will have their QB at a much lower price, especially given the rookie salary cap in place, and can begin their rebuilding process. You have to believe they'll have a high pick in 2013, so they can add another important piece, such as a top-flight RB, to help compliment Luck in 2013 and beyond.

Meanwhile, I think the best spot for Manning is naturally Miami. He lives there in the offseason and will have some great weapons around him with Brandon Marshall and Davone Bess at WR, and Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas in the backfield. The Dolphins lack a legit TE weapon, an asset Manning has always enjoyed having, but perhaps he'll make a guy like Anthony Fasano better than what he's been.

The Broncos and Cardinals are also interesting choices. Denver could bring in Manning and instantly become a Super Bowl contender. The team made the AFC Divisional playoffs with a brutal offense under Tim Tebow. The Broncos are built on defense. But with Manning at QB, that team suddenly becomes well-rounded with the ability to produce proficiently on both sides of the ball. And in the long-term, Tebow can learn from one of the greats for a few years, grow as a QB, then move back under center when Manning moves on. At that point, you have to believe given Tebow's work ethic and penchant for winning, that he'll become a legitimate threat on the ground and through the air that can keep a winning tradition in Denver once Manning moves on.

For the Cardinals, Manning would give Larry Fitzgerald a competent human being to throw him the ball. Fitz is the best WR in the game, hands down (or up, however you want to look at it). Beanie Wells can run the rock, and that would be a nice trio competing in the NFC West. While the emergence of the 49ers makes that division more competitive, it's still up for the taking.

I think the decision by the Colts was a bold one, but it benefits the franchise, Manning, and the NFL in the long run. The Colts can rebuild, Manning can start fresh and finish his career with a team he hand picks, make them a contender, and bring hope to that franchise while shifting the axis of power in the NFL. Chances are, the AFC or NFC will have a new team competing at the top of the heap that hasn't been there in some time. The Dolphins, Broncos and Cardinals all fit the mold.

That's where I find the Redskins situation an interesting one. Was this team not the perfect fit to court Manning? Rex freaking Grossman was the quarterback. Disgusting. Why not sign Manning, albeit for $28 million, put him in the same division as Eli, ride him for a few years and grab a young QB that you can season under his leadership to take over when he's done? Instead, they've traded 2012 draft picks with the Rams, given them their 1st round picks in 2013 and 2014 and a 2nd rounder in there just to draft RG3. In that division, he's probably not going to find consistent success for a few years when he's seasoned and groomed. Even Cam Newton, perhaps the best young, talented QB in the NFL right now, isn't finding consistently winning to be easy in the NFL. Yet the Redskins can't use draft picks in the next couple years to add any pieces around RG3. Why do you ask? Because they traded them away!

Meanwhile, the Rams should be expelled from the NFL if they aren't winning by 2015. If you can't make it work with all those 1st round picks you have now, that's just awful.

Alright I'm done. Still constipated.

-Bess

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