-Keefe
With seven days and counting until the NBA Draft, I thought about updating my mock draft. After giving it a closer look, I’m not sure I have any better answers than I did before. Besides the obvious change of DeVon Hardin from Cal, (who I had 30th overall, just bump Gasol up) who is returning to school, I didn’t want to switch anyone. The risk you run when you make multiple mock drafts is similar to creating multiple brackets for the NCAA tourney. Sure I could say the updated one is the only one that counts, but then when I get more right on my initial attempt, I’d try to lean toward that one. I only fill out one bracket, and I’m only going to do one mock draft. Word is Horford will be picked 3rd over Conley, and the Ohio St. point guard drops to 4th. Again, I still don’t see Horford being a dominant player, and feel the Hawks should pick Conley. But enough about the soon-to-be rookies, I stand by my original choices, I want to address some of the many rumors floating around the league.
Some of the biggest names in the game are being discussed right now: Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Shawn Marion to name a few. Where will these superstars be playing next season, and how important will the draft be in attempts to acquire them? Let’s first examine a trade rumor surrounding my team, the Boston Celtics.
Al Jefferson, Gerald Green, Sebastian Telfair, Ratliff/ Wally contract, and the No. 5 pick for Kevin Garnett.
So potentially the C’s would be trading an entire lineup for the 10 time All-Star. And you know what, if I’m either team here, I do it. For one the T-Wolves, who are stuck in the dominant Western Conference aren’t going to win anytime soon. They might as well build around some young guns and hope to win in a few years when guys like Nash, Duncan, Dirk, and Kobe are on their way out. You bring in Jefferson, Green, Telfair (who I don’t think is done, he’d be entering his senior year at Louisville right now had he gone that route), and the No. 5 pick, and combine them with the No. 7 pick, Randy Foye, Craig Smith, and Rashad McCants (who maybe can do something), and that’s a young and exciting team. The Celtics on the other hand have two top 10 players in the Eastern Conference. LeBron won the East on his own; I think Pierce and Garnett could do pretty well together. Garnett could opt out of his contract at the end of the year, and that scares me, but if the Celts do go through with this trade they would need to address that. Also I would be much more comfortable with this trade if Boston just switch picks (the 5th and 7th) rather than just tossing away their first rounder in this loaded draft. Should be interesting to see what happens.
What about Garnett to the Bulls or Suns? I don’t know. I think the Celtics have the best chance if they are willing to part with Al Jefferson, who will be an All-Star for years to come, as well as other young parts, like Green and a draft pick. There’s no way the Suns give up Amare, nor should they. And that might be the only way to get Garnett away from Minnesota and to Phoenix.
The Bulls are intriguing as they talk about Garnett as well as Kobe. They are not that far off from winning the East, and how much would they have to give up in order to acquire one of these studs? Gordon, Deng, Thomas, the No. 9 pick, all of these names have been thrown about. Why are they in so much of a rush? I know every team wants to win now, but when they have a solid young squad, why not keep them together? Salaries can screw that up, but a nucleus of Hinrich, Gordon, Deng, Thomas, and their lottery pick could be competitive for a long time. Teams like the Celtics or Suns who have Paul Piece and Steve Nash need to win now.
The Suns are already “winning.” No they haven’t won the championship, but it’s clear they’re on the right track. But what if they get rid of Shawn Marion? I think he’s far more important than anyone thinks. And why would he want to play anywhere else, unless Nash was going with him? I don’t get it. I like the rumor of the Clips sending Corey Maggette and the No. 14 to the Suns for Boris Diaw, the No. 24, and No. 29 picks. Phoenix probably won’t keep the two picks anyway, so this would be a great move. Also Maggette could provide some of the scoring they would lose with Marion, but the Matrix’s defense may not be replaceable. If Marion wants to get out of Amare’s shadow, maybe Boston would be a place he could do that.
Pierce and Marion, although not as daunting as Piece and KG, could still do damage in the East. Also you would assume Ainge wouldn’t have to give up nearly as much to get Marion. But here’s the dilemma. Yes you may have to give up a lot in order to get a big name veteran to go along with Pierce, but you would be winning, and not losing 18 straight and playing for a top pick in next year’s draft. If the Celtics do keep Pierce, I believe they owe it to him to go out and get either Garnett or Marion. But if they decide not to bring in a superstar, maybe, as much as it pains me to say it, they should part with Pierce and get some more valuable young parts.
I’ll finish with this. Next year’s Boston Celtics rotation should look like one of these, and not a hybrid.
A. Pierce, Garnett, West, Rondo, Gomes, Perkins, Allen, Dudley (with the 32nd pick)
Or (using a Pierce for Gordon and the No. 9 pick, as well as a third team to make the money work trade)
B. Jefferson, Ben Gordon, Al Thornton, Yi Jianlian, Rondo, West, Green, Allen.
All these rumors and mock drafts are driving me crazy. Bring on June 28!
-Rich Keefe
1 comment:
To trade or not to trade?---That is the question! But the larger question continues to be, "What is the Ainge plan for winning an NBA title?" (I'm tired of hearing about making the playoffs only---Red Auerbach is turning over in his grave listening to "making the playoffs" talk , rather than "winning a championship" talk).
It's obvious that CHAMPIONSHIPS begin with defense, end with defense, and feature a blend of youth, experience, chemistry, and did I mention DEFENSE? Do you absolutely need 3 great players as many experts claim? No! Do you absolutely need an all-star center and an all-star scorer? Not necessarily, but DEFENSE is a must!
So who on the Celtics can(or will) defend, and is Doc Rivers the right coach to teach & demand team defense? When the C's were embarking upon the run for Greg Oden in the 2nd half of the 2006-2007 season, they turned a number of 6-20 point 3rd quarter leads into losses simply by playing Telfair, Ray & Green at the same time down the stretch.---that trio flat out could not (Telfair would not) defend! Therefore, Telfair is toast, Ray's services are no longer needed, and Green's future(despite his jump shot & obvious quickness)is very much in question. DOC's future should also be in question since he's given no evidence over the past few years that he can teach defense!
Let's start with the bigs:
JEFFERSON---He's quicker than ever, he's stronger than ever, and he blocks shots more regularly now. But can he defend against a 5 with better than average lowpost offensive skills? On most nights, the answer is "No!" Alternatively, can Big Al defend 4's? Well, let's just say that his defense has improved in the last year, but that he's not even close to being considered a lock down defender. Duncan and Bowen are lock down defenders, while Ginobili, Oberto, and Parker play well within Greg Popovich's defensive scheme. I love Garnett not just because of his offense (which is 5 times more diverse than Big Al's) but because Garnett is a mobile, strong,rebounding & shot-blocking presence in the lane! Jefferson is still a loooong way from Garnett defensively!
PERKINS---He's much stronger than Jefferson, is more willing to bang, but can't stay on the court(due to fouls) for more than 15-20 minutes per game. On a championship team, Perk is a backup.
PIERCE---He can rebound when he so desires, and the refs do let him get away with more on both offense & defense. He's strong and can play offense (if it's not run & gun) for 30+ minutes per night. Given his age and his body type, his durability is now a question, along with his gamein/game out commitment to playing defense. (In addition, if the C's are ever to become a championship caliber team with Pierce, Pierce has to let the point guard, not Pierce, run the offense!)
GOMES---He showed a more consistent defensive effort 2 years ago. On what playoff team would Gomes start? Sorry, he's at best a 6th or 7th man on a serious playoff team, i.e. not quite big/string enough to be a power forward, not quite quick enough or with enough range to play the "3", and not the lock-down defender we're looking for.
ALLEN---He's strong, plays with grit, has well above average quickness on the perimeter, and will rebound and then run the break. His knee injuries are killers, i.e. can he come back again and have the same quickness and jumping ability? If yes, then Tony has a chance to become an all-NBA defender. So don't trade him!
RONDO---He's so quick & disrupts defensively by leaving his man to make weakside/ blindside steals. He also rebounds, is surprisingly tough battling for balls in the lane, and runs the break! However, his on the ball defense is just ok in that he gets picked off & sealed far too often (Maybe that's a function of the lack of team defense not being taught/demanded by Doc?). Like Allen, Rondo also has a chance to someday be an all-NBA defender (If only he had a jump shot!). Don't trade him!
WEST---He's tough, determined, competes every night, but is not quite qick enough to consistently defend the quick point guards. He's best suited to coming off the bench as a replacement for your 1 or 2 guards.( How is it possible that he has no right hand dribble moves at all?)
WALLY---He's too slow, has no defensive quickness, and is an offensive player only. On an NBA championship team, he can only come in off the bench and play the role of Vinnie "the microwave" Johnson.
GERALD GREEN---one of the worst defensive players in the league, despite his incredible athleticism. Green's inability to play defense again makes one ask, "Can Doc teach/demand individual and team defense?"
TEAM NEEDS---1) The "5" who can muscle with other 5's & control the paint on defense. Perk will give you 15 minutes per night---Who will give you 30 minutes? Garnett can right now & so can Kirilenko. Shawn Marion will not and he's not a 5 or a true 4. It's too bad that Horford won't be there at the 5th pick in the draft (Sorry Rich, I think Horford will be a beast in the NBA), and that Sean Williams is such a gamble because of off the court issues. 2) The perimeter defender, the Bruce Bowen clone is also needed---Maybe it's Tony Allen, maybe it's Corey Brewer! Maybe it's an unknown European ballplayer to be taken in the 2nd round, 3) A point guard to lead both the offense and the defense---Rondo is not quite ready yet for 30+ minutes of point guard leadership. Chauncey Billips, Andre Miller? Those are the kind of point guards that are needed to let Rondo develop within the next few years. Who is available, and what the salary cap implications would be are tough questions.
WHO TO DRAFT? Yi has the most upside( 7 footer, quick, agile,a shooter and perhaps a shot blocker); Brewer fills an immediate and long term defensive need; Jeff Green could replace Pierce if Pierce is traded,and Sean Williams looks like the best defensive big man available in the draft.
Would I trade Jefferson for Garnett? Absolutely,but only if Garnett would stay for more than 1 year. Would I trade the 5th pick for Shawn Marion (world's ugliest jump shot)? Only if Marion stays for more that 1 year. Would I trade for Kirilenko? Yes, but don't give up Allen, Rondo, or Jefferson.
Draft night should be interesting!
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