Monday, January 18, 2016

Chip Kelly is the right guy for the 49ers right now

Last week the 49ers announced, via Jed York's Twitter, that they'd hired Chip Kelly as the new head coach.


So here we are, the Chip Kelly era in San Francisco. A lot of people are skeptical, but I have to put that more on the fact that the 49ers are so fucking bad right now, it's hard not to be skeptical. Outside of hiring Bill Belicheck, Bruce Arians, or Ron Rivera, I'm not sure there's a coach they could've hired that wouldn't have met some sort of eyeroll. But I like it for a few reasons:

  • I caught this third-handed, but my buddy JJ shared a valid point from our friend Ari: With Kelly at the helm it at least makes the 49ers interesting again. Good coach, good team or not, the guy has been a polarizing figure in the NFL. We'll be excited to talk about and watch the team again. The hire breathes new life into the media coverage and fan interest, for better or worse.
  • Offense - the 49ers were, for a long time, an offensive-minded team associated with the West-coast offense. The great teams of the 80's and 90's under Bill Walsh, George Seifert, Mooch, etc. Mind you, we had Montana, Young, and even Jeff Garcia who was solid under center in the early 2000's. In his three years in Philly, Kelly's percentage of pass plays increased each year, eventually landing at about 59% in 2015. Was it the right approach with Shady McCoy and Demarco Murray as his RB's and Nick Foles and Sam Bradford at QB during his tenure, probably not. But dating back to his days at Oregon the guy loves offense. And again, that should make this team exciting to follow again.
  • Kap - Tomsula fucked up with how he transitioned to Gabbert this year. He should've given Kap the new O-line first, checked to see if he could float or not, then made the switch. So I don't think we have closed the book on whether Kap really sucks now or was at the mercy of a dog shit O-line. And if there was ever hope to resurrect the career of Colin Kapernick, bringing in the guy who coached Marcus Mariota at Oregon is a pretty good move. Although team-friendly, Kap signed a huge deal just a couple years ago, so the team is still invested. They can pull the cord and not take a major hit, but they owe it to themselves and to Kap to make another run at this thing. With improvements we saw to the O-line after Gabbert took over and Kelly's up-tempo offensive style, this could play to Kap's strengths. Spread the offense out, give him some room to move, and put less emphasis on going through progressions. Simplify things a bit and give him room to hurt you with his legs, something that made him such a success back in 2012 when he took the 49ers to the Super Bowl. 
  • Talent - they have some pieces here to actually do something, esp. on offense. Torrey Smith is a legit deep threat, Boldin a reliable target and possession receiver, and Carlos Hyde can be a legitimate RB1 if he's healthy. Tomsula was a conservative play caller, so give the offense a little pep and see if things can open back up. I think they still need one more weapon, whether it be getting Reggie Bush back or, if you want take his injury history out of the equation, finding an explosive slot receiver who Kap can lean on as a safety net but also help open up the field in terms of YAC. 
With respect to D, many have criticized his fast-paced offense for exposing and making the defense vulnerable. But I liked Kelly's quote to the Dallas Morning News this year - "It's plays played...It's not time of possession."

He has a point - energy is spent on plays, not necessarily while the clock is winding down as a team takes the huddle, calls in plays and personnel, etc. So while I think it'll be important for the 49ers to add some depth on D this year - they weren't great - in order to compete, they dealt with a lot of turnover and I think giving Eric Mangini more time to continue installing his system and having the players get acclimated and more comfortable is important.

Ultimately, the keys to success here lie in two major areas:
  • Give Kelly time. Don't pull the cord after a couple years if the 49ers aren't yet making the NFC Championship. I still think the Eagles pulled the cord too soon. Did he fuck up some personnel moves? Absolutely. But he was 20-12 in his first two years and had a down third year. Seemed a bit panicky.
  • He's not meddling in personnel moves. Trent Baalke, that smug looking fuck, is the GM. Not Kelly. This is big. Kelly fucked up in Philly trading McCoy, letting D-Jax go, and giving up a ton of shit to get Sam Bradford of all people from the St. Louis L.A. Rams. Wasn't smart. But he has less on his plate and can focus on coaching the players they get him for his system. I think this will be key, and we'll see what Kelly can really do coaching at the NFL level.
I'm optimistic and love the move. Now let's see what happens with the draft and the offseason, then we can really assess what their chances are in 2016. I doubt there's a playoff spot out there given where the Cardinals and Seahawks are talent wise, but there's a chance to compete and be in the conversation again. For year one, after a 5-11 season, that'll be a good start.


-Besse

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