With every major league team tied in the standings at 0-0 (when it was written), what better time to make some predictions? Who will make the playoffs? Who will win the World Series? Also we’ll share our take on the most important individual awards: Rookie, Cy Young, and MVP, as we preview the 2007 season.
Note: This is the first entry that all three of us wrote together, hence we couldn't get it on here until after the official start of the season. Won't happen again. Let's get it going...
Who will win the A.L. East?
Keefe- Yankees
I hate to say it, but it’s going to be the Yankees again. A 10th straight East title looks almost inevitable, although their pitching doesn’t scare you. The lineup does however, even with the loss of Sheffield, 1-8 are all tough outs. The ARod- Jeter relationship is something to watch. Look for Rodriguez to have another great offensive regular season then take a dump in the playoffs. Sox fans hope he doesn’t turn into Peyton Manning and finally win when it counts. The team bats will bail out the team arms all season long. Red Sox will be there, and expect another strong year from the Blue Jays.
Shark- Red Sox
Yeah, I know that most people have trouble even remembering the last time Red Sox won the division, but I think this is finally the year where the Sox's rotation is stronger (or should I say healthier?) than that of the Yanks and that's going to be the difference maker. I see Dice-K going to go for a solid 15 wins and the same with Beckett, and although it may sound obvious, I think Schilling is poised to have one final good year despite the fact that most people seem to be writing him off because of his age. True, he doesn't bring the heat like he used to, but I really liked the look of his newly added change-up this spring. Plus, I feel obligated to support a fellow blogger. At then end of the season I'll probably regret writing this, but put him down for 16 w's.
Like I mentioned earlier, I just don't see the Yankees, especially their pitching, being able to stay healthy enough to dominate like they have in the past. Look for the A-rod drama to have a negative impact on the team, as well an injury to Giambi. All those "protein shakes" are going to catch up with him this year as his body self-destructs by August.
Besse- Red Sox
Despite Schilling as the “ace” and the buzz surrounding Matsuzaka, Beckett is the guy to watch. Expect him to settle in during his sophomore year in the A.L., and their offensive firepower to out-slug a potent Yankees team that is short on starting pitching. Toronto will continue to steal wins from both clubs and make things interesting down the stretch, but don’t expect any of these teams to win more than 95 games.
Who will win the A.L. Central?
Keefe- Indians
Strong division that should have four teams contending for a spot in the playoffs. I give the Indians the edge because of Grady Sizemore (see A.L. MVP) and Travis Hafner. They also have a definite ace in C.C. Sabathia. The Tigers added more pop with Sheffield to help them repeat as A.L. champs, but will be without Kenny Rogers until July. The White Sox and Twins will be pushing for the wild card as well. Minnesota will be without Francisco Liriano (Tommy John- likely miss entire season), their 1-2 punch from a year ago is gone, and they may finish 4th in the central, despite returning both the league’s batting champ (Mauer) and MVP (Morneau).
Shark- Tigers
In my mind, the AL Central is going to give us the best playoff race in baseball and other than the lowly Royals, any of the other four teams could be walk away with division bragging rights. While I like the Indians' lineup, their bullpen was just a joke last year and I think will lead to their demise once again this year. However, if its any consolation to you Cleveland fans, I think the Tribe will be the most exciting team in the division (other than days when Santana pitches for the Twins of course), so at least you've got that going for you.
The Tigers have one of the best combinations of hitting and pitching in the league and is the reason why they'll be the last team standing in the Central. Losing Kenny Rogers to injury certainly hurts, but I think the end of their rotation is stronger this year with a healthy Mike Maroth and will take some of the pressure off of Verlander to repeat last year's breakout season. Not to mention that Magglio Ordonez and Gary Sheffield are going to be one of the league's best hitting duos.
Besse- Tigers
The Tigers welcome back Mike Maroth after elbow surgery to a staff that has three, maybe four potential aces. Sheffield adds more pop to a lineup that drove in more runs than the Red Sox and hit more homeruns than the Indians last year. Also, with Brad Radke retiring and Francisco Liriano out after Tommy John, expect the Twins to compete but fall short in pitching. Cleveland has a nice mix of veteran and young pitching, but are a year away; if this nucleus of young players, including the likes of Sizemore, Hafner and Marte returns, the Indians will take the Central next year.
Who will win the A.L. West?
Keefe- Athletics
Everyone is talking about the Angels, but I like the A’s. The outfield is solid with the addition of Shannon Stewart to go along with game ready Milton Bradley and Nick Swisher. Frank Thomas is out but Mike Piazza is in as the everyday DH. They’re always in it down the stretch and the 1-2-3 of Harden, Haren, and Blanton will keep them there. Huston Street (37 saves last year) is no K-Rod, but he gets the job done. Also the Angels overspent on Gary Matthews Jr. (always good in the field, but in ‘06 has a career offensive season, during a contract year, and then is linked to HGH… come on now.), he and Garrett Anderson will struggle, making their offense rely completely on MVP candidate Vlad Guerrero.
Shark- Rangers
If I was a smart man I'd pick Oakland. They've got a solid line-up that is anchored by their outfielders: Shannon Stewart, Milton Bradley, and Nick Swisher. They've got Harden and Haren at the top of their rotation and Huston Street coming in to close. Plus they just always seem to be there in October. However, where would the fun be in a making a preseason outlook if you didn't take a flyer on a team? Hence, I'm picking the Rangers.
I love Young and I think Teixeira could be a sleeper pick in the MVP race. Sosa looked like his old self (juiced self, not skinny rookie self) this spring, but after the past couple seasons I just can't realistically expect much production from him. I thought they made a great deal in getting Brandon McCarthy from the ChiSox. Along with Millwood and Padilla, McCarthy gives the Rangers a pretty solid top three in their rotation and I think they might really surprise some people.
Besse- Angels
An already strong club added Gary Matthews, Jr. and Shea Hillenbrand, plus Casey Kotchman returns from a season-long battle with mono. The starting pitching is decent, and will need Jered Weaver to be as good as he was last year, but it’s the back end that’s scary…Justin Speier comes from Toronto to match up with Scot Shields in setting up the explosive Francisco Rodriguez, who went 2-3 last year with a 1.73 ERA and 47 saves. Oakland will hang in there, led by pitchers Rich Harden and Huston Street. But nobody in their lineup scares you and Harden will need to stay healthy or else they’ll fade fast.
Who will win the A.L. Wild Card?
Keefe- Red Sox
The Sox won’t lose out on their division by too much, and will slide into the playoffs with the wild card. The Angels, Tigers, and White Sox will give them problems, but it might be a team in their own A.L. East that pushes them the most. Halladay and Burnett will have big years and the Blue Jays will be knocking on the door. But it will ultimately be the best 3-4-5 combination in the majors (Ortiz, Manny, J.D. Drew), the solid starting pitching (Schilling, Beckett- in a great bounce back year, Dice-K), and the new old closer (Papelbon), that gets the Sox back into the playoffs.
Shark- Yankees
Everyone is talking about how the Yankees pitching is weak for the first time in more than a decade, but they're still the Yankees. They have confidence. They have the intangibles. They have tradition. Oh, and did I mention the best lineup in baseball. The line-up is so good that the Yanks will just wear pitchers down over the course of the game and there a very few good bullpens in the league. Like always, they'll be around in October.
Besse- Yankees
There isn’t a single break in this lineup, save for the 9-hole spot (Doug Mientkiewicz, Josh Phelps or Andy Phillips). Hideki Matsui returns from that gruesome wrist injury, and Melky Cabrera is as good a 10th player as anyone in the bigs. That being said, Chien-Ming Wang starts the season on the D.L., and the return of over-paid, injury riddled Carl Pavano highlights a starting rotation that simply put, won’t be good. Mussina and Pettite will win 12-14 games, but Kei Igawa is unproven and Pavano stinks. Expect this team to make the playoffs thanks to Mariano Rivera and a boatload of homeruns.
Nice try (in order of finish): Cleveland, Oakland, Toronto, Minnesota
Who will win the N.L. East?
Keefe- Braves
The Mets have a better lineup, but the combination of pitching and hitting will land the Braves into the postseason. Chipper needs to stay on the field, and they better hope Andruw Jones still has pop despite losing a lot of weight. Brian McCann might just be the best catcher in baseball, (.333, 24 HR, 93 RBI, in ’06). And besides Carl Crawford rounding second base I think watching Jeff Francoeur throw out a runner with his hand cannon is the most exciting play in the sport. Bullpen was a problem last year, Wickman didn’t get there until it was too late. Now they have him for an entire season as well as former Pirates closer Mike Gonzalez to make sure they don’t blow late game leads. Rollins, Utley, and Howard will make the Phillies interesting, but they have nothing hitting behind last season’s MVP. Mets have pop too, but no pitching to clinch the east.
Shark- Phillies
This division race is going to go down to the wire between the Phillies and the Mets, but I think Ryan Howard is going to be the difference maker even if he gets the Bonds treatment from opposing pitchers. The big fella should see Rollins on base in front of him a lot of the time and have Utley and Burrell protecting him from being pitched around.
The Mets certainly have a better line-up, perhaps the best in the NL, but with Pedro out until after the all-star break their pitching will keep them from winning the division outright. I see them walking away with the wild card and then making some noise in the playoffs.
Besse- Phillies
Expect huge seasons from Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, who combined for 90 homeruns and 251 RBI’s last season, more than any other duo in the majors. They also acquired Freddy Garcia to pitch in between Brett Myers and up-and-comer Cole Hamels in the rotation. Although the bullpen isn’t strong, GM Pat Gillick will most likely look to improve that before the July 31 deadline. If Tom Gordon stays healthy, though, he’ll top the mark of 34 saves he recorded last year.
Who will win the N.L. Central?
Keefe- Cubs
Anything the Cubs get from Prior and Wood this year is a bonus. They aren’t relying on them, and that’s a good thing. Addition of Soriano, re-signing Aramis Ramirez, and a healthy Derrek Lee makes the Cubbies look like a strong playoff team. Oh yeah, they also have one of the best starting pitchers in all of baseball, Carlos Zambrano. Kip Wells is the number two starter in St. Louis? Wainwright is an unproven starter, and Carpenter will have a lot of pressure on him. Some bad teams here that could be fun to watch depending on who is pitching, I like Cincy with Arroyo and Harang (who led the NL in both wins and strikeouts), and keep an eye on the Brewers when Sheets or Dave Bush takes the bump.
Shark- Cardinals
The Cards don't have the pitching that they had last year after losing Suppan, Marquis and Weaver, so look for them to use their superior offensive firepower to simply out-gun the rest of their division. Hey, its working for Steve Nash. Barring any injury I would almost guarantee that Pujols walks away with his 2nd MVP. I also think closer Jason Isringhausen will have the stones to come in and finish-up those close games... even if the score is likely to be 12-11.
I think the Cubs could be a real fun team this year, especially with the addition of Soriano. He's both a threat to hit a homerun every time up, as well as to misplay a ball in center. He's going to keep the Cubbie fans on the edge of their bleacher. If either Prior or Wood are able to come back and do something it would be great for the Cubs and the game of baseball in general, but I don't see it happening and thus Carlos Zambrano is going to have to carry the weight of the rotation on his wide shoulders. Unfortunately its going to be just too heavy.
Besse- Cardinals
The Cardinals will win the competitive Central for two reasons: pitching and Pujols. Former Cy-young winner Chris Carpenter leads a staff that welcomes Adam Wainwright, who made a name for himself during last October’s World Series run, from the bullpen. If Jason Isringhausen stays healthy and keeps Wainwright in the rotation, St. Louis should win over 90 games in a division that will be second in parody to its A.L. counterpart. The Cubs’ addition of Alfonso Soriano and a healthy Derek Lee could make them a sexy pick, but without the Mark Prior and Kerry Wood versions of 2003, the bats alone just simply won’t be enough. Expect a young Milwaukee team to finish a respectable third, and tough Astros and Reds ballclubs to make things tough.
Who will win the N.L. West?
Keefe- Diamondbacks
Real tough choice here. I like the Dodgers starting rotation (Lowe and Penny both had 16 wins which was good for a share of the NL lead in ‘06, Schmidt, and the Wolf Pack, healthy again, heads west), but the middle of their order (Kent, Nomar, Luis Gonzalez) are a combined 111 years old. 111?!? And the youngest of the group, Nomar, is probably the most injury prone. 40th Birthday parties for Kent and Gonzalez may be the highlight for LA this year. Last season’s NL Cy Young winner, Brandon Webb, and the return of the Big Unit to Arizona get the Diamondbacks into the playoffs. Not a lot of bats for any team out here, but with the likes of the aforementioned Webb, Schmidt, Lowe, as well as Jake Peavy and new National Leaguer Barry Zito, the Cy Young might very well come from the NL West once again. It might.
Shark- Dodgers
The combination of a strong rotation and a weak division is what's going to put the Dodgers back in the playoffs. They've got a couple of greyhounds at the top of their order in Rafael Furcal and Juan Pierre which should really help out the middle of their order which is made up of the seasoned veterans (nice way of saying old) Jeff Kent, Luis Gonzalez, and Nomar.
The NL west could have some real sleepers, in the Rockies and Diamondbacks, but I think they're just too young to make it to October. The biggest hurdle for the Dodgers is going to be the Padres and their pitching. Peavy is a junk yard dog and is almost certainly going to have a year. The key guy in their rotation is going to be Greg Maddux; if he pitches his age then I don't see the Padres doing too much, but if he can pull out one more good season he's going to set the tone for the rest of the club.
Besse- Dodgers
The Dodgers will prevail out of the West due in large part to a pitching staff that is up there with the best in the majors. Derek Lowe, Jason Schmidt, Brad Penny and Randy Wolf, who is 21 months removed from Tommy John, will be tough for any offense, never mind the “pop-less” West. The knock on this club is its lack of power, and losing J.D. Drew doesn’t help. The 3-4-5 hitters are an average of 37 years old and combined for only 49 homeruns last season. But they’ll fend off the pesky Diamondbacks, whose influx of young talent, including Stephen Drew, Carlos Quentin and rookie Chris Young will make them competitive in a fairly weak division.
Who will win the N.L. Wild Card?
Keefe- Mets
Even though I like the Braves to win the East, I’m not ready to leave the Mets home from postseason play. Reyes, Wright, Delgado, and Beltran are too much in the soft hitting national league for them not to get in. Who knows when Pedro will be back, or if he’ll be 100%, but the lineup is the best in the N.L. Similar to the A.L. East, it might be a division rival that gives the Mets the toughest challenge for that wild card. The Phillies have three studs (Rollins, Utley, Howard) that will try to score runs for wife smackin’ Brett Myers, soft tossin’ Jaime Moyer, young gun Cole Hamels, and “The Rock” look a like, Freddy Garcia.
Shark- Mets
The Mets might as well be the poor man's Yankees. A team with Sketchy pitching which is depending on guys coming back from injury, but will make it to October because of its scary lineup, especially when its feeding on NL pitching. Look for Reyes and Wright to once again make a case for the best left side of the infield in NYC. Whether or not Pedro is able to come back from injury is going to be a real issue for the Mets, not so much for the regular season, but they really need him if they want to win a 5 game series this fall. Even though I'm picking the Phils to take the NL East, the Mets are just too good to not be around in October and are look to be better built for run in the playoffs.
Besse- Mets
The Mets will battle with and outlast Philadelphia as long as their pitching holds up. Led by 41-year-old Tom Glavine, who as the season begins is 10 wins from 300, the Mets will need youngsters like John Maine, Oliver Perez and Mike Pelfrey to step up and prove they can compete at the big league level. While the offense is explosive 1-9, the bench is weak. If this team stays healthy, they could make a run in the playoffs.
Postseason:
Keefe-
ALDS: Yankees over A’s, Red Sox over Indians
ALCS: Red Sox over Yankees
NLDS: Cubs over Mets, Braves over Diamondbacks
NLCS: Cubs over Braves
WS: Cubs over Red Sox
Shark-
ALDS: Red Sox over Rangers, Tigers over Yankees
ALCS: Tigers over Red Sox
NLDS: Mets over Cardinals, Phillies over Dodgers
NLCS: Mets over Phillies
WS: Tigers over Mets
Besse-
ALDS: Tigers over Red Sox, Angels over Yankees
ALCS: Angels over Tigers
NLDS: Phillies over Dodgers, Cardinals over Mets
NLCS: Phillies over Cardinals
WS: Angels over Phillies in 7
Who will be A.L Rookie of the Year?
Keefe- Delmon Young
Dice-K will probably be there, but after a hot start he will cool off in the second half and hurt his chances of being the ROY. Right now the two best rookies look like guys on two of the worst teams. (Alex Gordon of the Royals and Young of the Rays). If Young plays to his potential he will give Tampa Bay the best young OF in the game. Crawford, Baldelli, and Young could give the fans in Florida something to cheer about. Though Young has a better chance at ROY then they do at finishing out of the basement.
Shark- Dice K
The Asian sensation is going to have a good year, but probably not outstanding. I'm thinking 15 wins at the very most, but his numbers (plus all his media hype) will be good enough to make Japan feel good and proud.
Besse- Delmon Young
Alex Gordon is getting all the hype, but Young will fly under the radar for most of the season with the dismal Tampa Bay club. He got a taste of the bigs last season, batting .317 with three homeruns, which should prove to be invaluable in his development this season.
Who will win the A.L Cy Young Award?
Keefe- Johan Santana
I know its boring to pick Santana, but how do you pick against this guy? (last season: 19-6, 2.77 ERA, 245 Ks). Other guys in the mix will include two former Marlins in Josh Beckett and A.J. Burnett, both struggled in their first season in the American League. Also if the Indians win the central, like I think they will, big C.C. Sabathia will challenge Santana.
Shark- Roy Halladay
At 6'6'', 225 lbs, Halladay is just a work-horse who is going to get at least 28 starts. He's not as good as Santana, but because of his size I think its less likely that he misses a few starts because he's on the DL. Although, Santana has put up disgusting numbers after the all-start break nearly every year, proving that he's not a guy who wears down after 15 starts...I'm already regretting this pick.
Besse- Roy Halladay
Halladay returns after a frustrating season shortened by injury. The 2003 winner will return to rare form and dominate once again. With A.J. Burnett taking some pressure off in the rotation and B.J. Ryan coming on in the ninth, Halladay should be primed for upwards of 18 wins and a 3.00 ERA…stellar numbers in today’s game.
Who will be the A.L. MVP?
Keefe- Grady Sizemore
Lots of names for the potential A.L. MVP race this year: Ortiz, Manny, ARod, Vlad, Crawford, Wells, but Sizemore probably isn’t on most lists. He should be. Last year, his second full season in the show, he hit .290, 28 HR, 76 RBI, 22 SB. Not unbelievable numbers, but solid if that’s all you look at. Sizemore also scored more runs than anyone else in baseball (134), led the league in doubles (53), and had the most extra base hits (92)… and he’s just 24 years old. If the Indians are in the playoffs, and Sizemore improves his numbers, just a little, like hit over .300, he could be your MVP.
Shark- Mark Teixeira
Teixeira is going to spark the annual debate about whether the MVP is the league's best player or the guy who's the most valuable to his team. With the Rangers being the surprise of the league, I see him edging out A-Rod and Manny for the league's top honors.
Besse- Alex Rodriguez
Rodriguez will be the fastest to reach 500 homeruns at some point this season. Let’s face it, this guy is arguably the best pure hitter in baseball. After addressing his relationship with Jeter, he seems to be more comfortable with himself in New York. Look for .300/45/120 out of the highest paid player in the majors.
Who will be N.L. Rookie of the Year?
Keefe- Chris Young
He’s a 5 tool guy and will get a chance to start in centerfield for the D-Backs. Young will benefit from playing in the N.L. where there aren’t as many talented rookies, like Gordon, D. Young, and Dice-K. Especially if Young helps his team contend for a playoff spot, he should garner the attention to help win him the award.
Shark- Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, Padres
I'm picking him because I just got back from living in Ireland for six months and I honestly know more about European rugby than I do about NL rookies. Saw his name on a "top rookies" list and his name gave me a chuckle. This is going to have to be sufficient reasoning for you...sorry.
Besse- Chris Young
Young is a five-tool player that will thrive in the weak N.L. West division. He’s slated to bat seventh in the order, which should allow him to see a lot of fastballs and continue to cut down on strikeouts, which hampered his development early in his career. A potential 30/30 player down the road, he was listed as one of the “8 Who May Be Great” by Sports Illustrated this month.
Who will win the N.L. Cy Young Award?
Keefe- Carlos Zambrano
Hey if I’m crazy enough to pick the Cubs to win the World Series they better get a monster season out of Big Z right? He’ll need to improve on his solid numbers from last year to win the Cy. 16 wins (tied for 1st in NL), 3.41 ERA (5th in NL), and 210 Ks (4th in NL). I envision Zambrano’s chief competition coming from last year’s winner Brandon Webb, and a rejuvenated Jake Peavy.
Shark- Roy Oswalt
He's got a career ERA of 3.05 and his strike out to walk ratio is always fantastic. Truthfully, I think this one has more to do with the Astros' hitting than it does with Oswalt's pitching. Carlos Lee is going to have a big year and that's what's going to get Oswalt a nice shiny trophy to bring home.
Besse- Ben Sheets
Sheets possesses a low-to-mid 90’s fastball and a hammer that have made him one of the best underappreciated pitchers in the majors over the past few years. Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder and Bill Hall will give Sheets the offensive support he needs to collect wins and votes.
Who will be the N.L. MVP?
Keefe- Derrick Lee
Similar to my Zambrano pick, if the Cubs make it deep into the postseason they’ll need Lee to put up his ’05 numbers. (.335, 46 HR, 107 RBI) He should be able to improve the RBI numbers with the addition of Soriano. Lee played in just 50 games last year, so I expect a complete comeback. Pujols and the studs from the Mets will factor in as well. I don’t see Ryan Howard repeating due to his lack of support behind him in the lineup.
Shark- Albert Pujols
He's the best hitter in the game. I feel that's all I have, or need, to say on the matter.
Besse- Albert Pujols
Arguably the other best pure hitter in baseball, Pujols is straight filth…a line drive hitter that sprays the field, he continue to dominate watercooler conversations with his homeruns that glide out at six-feet above the ground. Pitchers may try and pitch around him, especially after Jim Edmonds had a sub-par season last year (.257, 19, 70). But that didn’t stop Barry Bonds from winning it from ’01-’04, did it?
Hope you enjoyed all of our picks and predictions. We're all looking forward to a great 2007 baseball season. If you have any thoughts or comments, send us an e-mail at sportsbrief@gmail.com. We'd love to hear from ya.
-Rich Keefe, Brian Sharkey, Tristan Besse
No comments:
Post a Comment