After a long hiatus, I've decided to try and commit myself to posting blogs more consistently moving forward. Work has taken a toll on me, but after starting a new job, moving apartments and getting settled after the holidays, the hope is I'll have some time to make occasional posts during the week and some on the weekends.
For the first blog back, here are predictions on the main card for the UFC 142 fight tonight:
Jose Aldo vs. Chad Mendes
Interesting take here. I actually work with a guy who is friends with a lot of members in and associated with Team Alpha Male: Urijah Faber, Mark Munoz, and none other than Chad Mendes. We've talked a lot about this card over the last couple weeks, and he firmly believes, bias or not, that Mendes' wrestling can be the difference in this fight.
I don't.
While I think he can find success in moments throughout the fight, I don't think he'll have the ability to wear down Aldo enough in this pockets to finish him. And when the fight is on the feet, Aldo has the significant advantage. Mendes packs power, but Aldo's striking is so versatile, fluid and devastating, Mendes could be worn down by the 4th and 5th rounds. In fact, my co-worker told me he was cageside for the Aldo vs. Faber fight, and the leg kicks were devastating from Aldo. They could see the impact on his legs from the 1st row, and after the fight Faber told him they hurt like hell. Expect Mendes to face the same difficulty.
Aldo will wear him down on the feet, and while Mendes will score in short spurts, Aldo will carry a lead in the championship rounds, where Mendes will be tired, sore, and not have the spring in his legs to score any takedowns. As a result, Aldo hurts Mendes with a flurry late in the 4th before finishing him on the ground.
Result: Aldo defeats Mendes via 4th round (T)KO stoppage.
Vitor Belfort vs. Anthony Johnson
"Rumble" came rumbling onto the scale at 197lbs, 11lbs over the contracted weight. Dana White just released his Day 2 Vlog and it's interesting to watch his conversation with Belfort, informing him of the predicament and his options to either stop cutting and rehydrate now or make weight and accept 20% of Johnson's purse. Vitor, ever the professional, accepted the latter.
One thing I caught in the video, which you can view below, is that the fight will take place around 3am in Brazil. Vitor is from Brazil, so he's used to the time zone and has a sense of what needs to be done to be ready by fight time. I can't assume Johnson, far from the professional Belfort is, has the same awareness. So while Johnson may have the advantage from weighing much heavier than Belfort, he also went through some serious medical issues that caused him to miss weight, and I think Belfort will actually be fresher when they enter the cage.
In terms of tangibles, it's an interesting matchup of styles. Both are prolific strikers. Belfort has the faster, crisper strikes, while Johnson brings power that may not be matched at 170, 185, or possibly even 205. This guy throws bombs, plain and simple. But the quickness of Belfort on the feet could force Johnson to consider packing up his ego and relying on his wrestling. The "Phenom" will have to watch out for that.
Picking this fight is tough. The weight thing really throws a wrinkle into the mix, but ultimately I think Belfort prevails. He's fighting in his home country, has quick, fast hands with power, and has fought guys just as big if not bigger than Johnson. It's not something new to a guy with a wealthy of experience. Johnson will be a legitimate threat while the fight lasts, but I think Belfort wobbles "Rumble" and closes fast with a shocking flurry of strikes that puts Johnson down and out in the 2nd round.
Result: Belfort defeats Johnson via 2nd round KO
Rousimar Palhares vs. Mike Massenzio
This won't take long. I'm not sure how Massenzio wins this fight. And he won't. Palhares will bully him to the mat within the first couple minutes of the fight, land some strikes from the top, then latch onto a leg as Massenzio tries to scramble. He'll tap, Palhares will hold the submission a few seconds after the ref steps in, Massenzio will get hurt, and there will be a massive scrum in the cage as UFC brass try to restore order.
In other words, just another day in the life of Palhares.
By the way, does Palhares have the biggest arms in MMA? Holy christ.
Result: Palhares defeats Massenzio via 1st round submission (kneebar)
Erick Silva vs. Carlo Prater
Prater looks like a badass, but he's actually just a veteran fighter with a ton of experience. Silva, meanwhile, is an up-and-coming prospect who is looking to pass yet another test as he tries to climb the ladder.
My knowledge of Prater goes back to his days in the WEC. A failed title attempt against then 170lb. champ Carlos Condit, and another loss to former WEC welterweight contender Brock Larson. He was wiped out in both fights, and while he's fought a lot of tough, top guys in the sport, he's never really found success at the highest of levels.
Silva, meanwhile, is a guy who has finished 10 of his 13 professional victories, 7 by submission. He's also trained with fellow Brazilians Anderson Silva and the Nogueria brothers. The guy can attack, and against Prater I think he continues his climb to contendership with relative ease. He'll soften Prater up with strikes, then after being wobbled, Prater will try and scramble for a takedown. On his knees while reaching for a leg, Prater's neck will be exposed and Silva will pounce on it, locking up the guillotine and finishing the longtime MMA vet with the tapout.
Result: Erick Silva defeats Carlo Prater via 1st round submission (guillotine choke)
Terry Etim vs. Edson Barboza
This should be a barn burner. I love to watch Etim. Long, lean and athletic, and he has a fantastic submission game. Great threat on the ground. Barboza, meanwhile, is an undefeated prospect with some serious striking on the feet. He's coming off a split decision win against Ross Pearson, a guy who's pretty talented on his feet, as well.
Both guys should bring it, and this is my early pick for Fight of the Night honors. As far as the result, Etim is going to need to get this fight to the ground and be on the attack, not fighting in a scramble. If it stays on the feet, he's tough and will be game, but it'll be the best way for him to lose a decision.
Ultimately, I think that's how it goes down. Etim won't be able to sustain any success on the mat against Barboza, and the majority of it will showcase the superior striking of the undefeated talent.
Result: Barboza defeats Etim via unanimous decision
That's all I'll weigh in on, as the undercard fights have kicked off. Just wanted to get this up as I want the end of the 49ers-Saints game and get ready for the Pats. A great weekend of sports, and more exciting UFC action coming this month, a lot of which has been featured on FOX during this game which has been pretty cool to see.
Enjoy the games and the fights!
-Bess
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