Monday, June 23, 2014

Rich Keefe's 2014 NBA Mock Draft

Disclaimer to the Mock Draft.  This is not a guess at 1-60, rather who I think should go in each spot.  It's like I'm the GM for all 30 teams.  I have the roster needs and what not in mind, so this isn't the 60 best players in order, but it's closer to that than other mocks who have something called "inside information."  So the first player announced in the Adam Silver Era will be...

1. Cleveland Cavaliers – Jabari Parker, SF, Duke, Freshmen

Parker has been my favorite player in the draft from beginning to end... even with the end not being an ideal one for him.  I think he has the best chance to be a multiple time All-Star in the NBA.  I understand the Wiggins and Embiid love, but I believe Parker could be even better and is also safer in my mind.  He's the best scorer in the draft and even though his defense is below average, that's something he can improve on with nothing more than effort.  Cavs should take him #1 and watch him be a 20+ scorer for years to come.  

2. Milwaukee Bucks – Andrew Wiggins, SG/SF, Kansas, Freshmen

Comparisons to LeBron James and Kevin Durant were insane from Jump Street.  Not fair.  He's not them, but no one is.  He lit up West Virginia (41 points) late in the year, but he also put out a stinker in their tournament loss to Stanford.  The potential is obvious, athleticism is nutty, I still like Parker more, but not by a whole lot.


3. Philadelphia 76ers – Aaron Gordon, PF, Arizona, Freshmen 

Big move up here.  The Embiid injury could (should) launch Gordon up a few spots.  Gordon is not even an average shooter right now, but he is an exceptional athlete and can immediately guard multiple positions in the NBA.  He's the youngest guy in the draft and reminds me (and many others) of a young Shawn Marion.  (Remember how good the Matrix was?  I do.) He should become a double-double guy and All-Defensive ability.  He may just catch alley-oops for a season or two, but by the time he is 20-21 (!) he could be a more well rounded offensive threat.  

4. Orlando Magic – Marcus Smart, PG, Oklahoma State, Sophomore

Stock in Smart has been all over the place.  He could have been the #1 pick last year and likely would have been #2 to the Magic, but he decided to go back to school to work on his point guard skills (not a PG in high school) and his shooting (still poor).  He had that shove on that racist Texas Tech fan and the Cowboys had a disappointing season.  There has been talk that he could be picked 8th or later, but I think his pre-draft workouts have helped him and he should be back in the Top 5.  He reminds me a little of a Derrick Rose or Russell Westbrook.  NBA strength already, only 6'3 but strong as hell.  Needs to shoot better obviously, but does a lot well.  I'm a fan!

5. Utah Jazz – Noah Vonleh, PF, Indiana, Freshmen

How about the hands on this guy!?  Big, huge hands, long wing span and he can shoot.  He played on a bad Hoosiers team in his one season in college, so that was one of the reasons he didn't get the hype that many of the other freshmen received.  Utah stinks.  They managed to draft one of the few solid players in last year's draft (Trey Burke), doesn't mean they couldn't take Exum, but I think they go big and take a Derrick Favors (who was disappointing) replacement.  

6. BOSTON CELTICS – Joel Embiid, C, Kansas, Freshmen

FOOT INJURY!  Not even attending the draft, yikes.  It's also scary that his points, FG %, rebounds, and block numbers as a freshmen are most similar to Greg Oden and Anthony Davis.  That's the floor and ceiling right there.  The Hakeem comparisons are as aggressive as the Wiggins-LeBron ones.  If he is Oden, would you be shocked?  Embiid is the only legit center though in this draft, but I was worried when it was just the back, now the foot?  This is why it's not easy being a GM (I'd still like to take a shot though.)  I'll reluctantly take him at 6, only because of who has already come off the board (in this mock).  Either C's trade this pick to Minnesota who would be in rebuild, or the Celts themselves are going young/ tank for another year.  


7. Los Angeles Lakers – Dante Exum, G, Australia

I'm not as high on Exum as most.  I haven't seen much of him (have you?), and I'm even a little concerned about taking him here.  I've seen the YouTube clips, I've read all the scouting reports.  Is he Michael Carter-Williams?  Is that worth taking over a number of guys below?  He doesn't shoot well and I wasn't blown away by his athleticism at the Draft Combine.  If he ends up being a 2-guard, is he any better than Zach LaVine or even someone like Jordan Clarkson?  With all that being said, you can't miss out on the next big international stud (there have been a bunch).  I'd take him here, but not higher.  


8. Sacramento Kings – Julius Randle, PF, Kentucky, Freshmen

This foot injury is scary.  Will he need surgery this year, next year, year three?  He says no, but Woj says yes.  Who do you believe?  I saw he had a 38.5 max vertical jump at his workout with the Lakers.  So take that for what it's worth.  He was a double-double machine in his one year at Kentucky where he helped lead his team to the NCAA Finals.  He measured out at a true 6'9 with a 7 wingspan and already a strong NBA build.  Is he Zach Randolph?  Could he be Chris Webber if he improves his passing?  If I'm picking 8-10 I'm hoping the teams above freak out about the foot, cause I think he will be a solid pro for a long time.


9. Charlotte Hornets (from Pistons) – Gary Harris, SG, Michigan State, Sophomore

I just hope they give this pick a brand new Charlotte Hornets Starter jacket when he gets selected.  Good to have the Hornets back and more importantly, Bobcats gone, for good.   Harris is the best pure 2-guard in the class.  Some rumors floated that he might have some point guard ability (note: EVERY agent of shooting guards pushes their guy as also a point, especially if they don't have great size... like Harris.)  But Harris is a tough, smart, almost complete player after 2 years at Michigan State.  I don't think he's as good as Bradley Beal but a solid pick at 9.


10. Philadelphia 76ers (from Pelicans) – T.J. Warren, SF, North Carolina State, Sophomore

Another one of my favorite players in the draft right here.  Warren led the ACC in scoring (24.9 ppg, which was more than Jabari Parker), he does not shoot great from 3 (yet), but has good size for an NBA 3 and is creative at scoring in the lane.  He can create his own shot and should be a productive scorer in the league for sometime.  Solid rebounder (7 a game last year) if he buys in defensively, with his size he could become a complete player.  (I'm hoping if the Celtics stay at 17, he falls to them there.)


11.  Denver Nuggets – James Young, SG/SF, Kentucky, Freshmen

I like James Young more than most.  I believe he will turn into a lights out shooter.  I know he only shot 35% from 3 last year but it looks a lot better, if that makes sense. He has the size to play either the 2 or even the 3 as he is 6'7 with a 7 foot wingspan.  His agent is Jay-Z... which I also wanted to mention.  


12. Orlando Magic (from Knicks) – Dario Saric, F, Croatia

Saric was almost in the draft last year, and there was even some talk that he may pull out again this time around.  But the 6'10, 20 year old from Croatia is in.  He compares to Lamar Odom (on the court!).  Obviously, like Exum, one of the guys in the draft I know the least amount, but he's been one of the top international players for years and his style should translate to the NBA.  I'm not predicting All-Stars games, however at #12, worth a shot.

13. Minnesota Timberwolves – Adreian Payne, PF, Michigan State, Senior

One of the few seniors I like in this draft (or really almost any draft).  He actually shot the 3 better than his teammate Gary Harris and Kentucky's James Young this year.  So, stretch 4 is appropriate.  He doesn't play overly athletic, but did you see him in the College Slam Dunk Contest?  You didn't? Well, take my word, he was impressive.  Big dunks.  6'10 with a 7'4 wingspan.  T-Wolves could be looking to replace their power forward...

14. Phoenix Suns – Doug McDermott, F, Creighton, Senior

Head Coach Jeff Hornacek got the most out of his team last year.  Gerald Green looked like a legit NBA player, as did the Morris twins.  Maybe they would be better off taking a guy who has more upside, but why not take a scorer like McDermott?  5th most points in NCAA history... that's nothing to sneeze at.  Not sure who he can guard.  Hide him on defense and utilize him as a scoring weapon.  This is the prime example of a player who will last as long as the place he goes.  Phoenix seems like a good spot for most.   


15. Atlanta Hawks – Jusef Nurkic, C, Bosnia

Well, here is another guy I'm basing off of YouTube, scouting reports, and hearsay, compared to actually watching with my own eyes.  But in a draft with few centers, Nurkic probably won't slide too far down the middle of the 1st round.  I like that he is 6'11 and 280.  A lot of these international guys who are 6'11/7'0 are always 210, and we hear "needs to add muscle," and "once he adds that NBA body."  This guy has already crossed that off his list.  


16. Chicago Bulls (from Hornets) – Elfrid Payton, PG, Louisiana-Lafayette, Junior 

Big fan of Payton (how many favorites can I have?).  Did not play in the best conference (Sun Belt stinks), but did compete in the U-19 for Team USA a year ago and played well against better competition also he has been playing great in pre-draft workouts.  I'll compare him to Rajon Rondo.  He doesn't shoot well, although he can score.  Good size 6'4 with a 6'8 wingspan.  19 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists per game is nice, but again it was in the Sun Belt.  He's a junior but only 20 years old.  Smart is better, Exum might be better, after that... Payton is the best point guard in the draft.


17. BOSTON CELTICS (from Nets) – Rodney Hood, SF, Duke, Sophomore

My pick in this draft class for a guy who will compete in a 3-Point Contest and a Dunk Contest.  Everyone watched Duke this year with both eyes on Jabari Parker, however Hood is legit in his own right.  He might disappear a little here and there (maybe in part due to Parker) but he can shoot the 3 and is athletic enough to get in the lane and even throw down over the defense.  He's 6'8, so size for the 3.  Will never be the lead scorer on your team, option 3 maybe 2 down the road is reasonable.

18. Phoenix Suns (from Wizards) – K.J. McDaniels, SG/SF, Clemson, Junior

If the Suns lose Eric Bledsoe, they will be looking for a replacement to pair with All-NBA PG Goran Dragic, and some more scoring.  McDaniels has been more of a small forward, but I think he can play either wing spot.  He put up 17 points, 7 rebounds last year on a bad Clemson team.  Great free throw shooter but an average 3 point shooter right now.  At 6'6, with a 6'11+ wingspan he could turn himself into a strong wing defender if he commits himself.      

19. Chicago Bulls – Nik Stauskas, SG, Michigan, Sophomore

Most people are higher on the Canadian by was of St. Mark's (ISL!).  He can shoot.  What else can he do?  He's got decent enough size for a 2-guard, and can handle better than you might expect.  Is he better, worse, or the same as J.J. Redick?  I guess it depends on how you view Redick.  I've been surprised by his time in the league and effectiveness.  He's a double-digit scorer, I'm not convinced Stauskas will be.  But, I've been wrong before.  


20. Toronto Raptors – Tyler Ennis, PG, Syracuse, Freshmen

Not a fan of Ennis.  Scouts seem to enjoy his work.  He became the face of Syracuse as they were riding a long winning streak last season, but were they really any good?  He should be the future PG of Team Canada (which could be a nice team: Wiggins, Tristan Thompson, A. Bennett, Olynyk, Stauskas, Andrew Nicholson, etc.)   Raptors may lose Kyle Lowry, so at #20 point guard could be the play.


21. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Mavericks) –P.J. Hairston, SG, D-League/North Carolina

Hairston as we all know got booted out of North Carolina.  You have to be some kind of pain in the ass to get kicked out of one of these basketball schools, but he pulled it off.  He then joined the D-League where he put up over 20 points per game.  Don't get too excited about the D-League stats (Fab Melo had great games there), Glen Rice Jr., was great two years ago there post Georgia Tech and spent more time there then in the big show this year.  I did like Hairston while he was at UNC and he carried over some of his good on-court abilities to the D-League.  Hopefully he has matured (sounded like he did at the combine, for what it's worth), he could be good.


22. Memphis Grizzlies – Melvin Ejim, SF, Iowa State, Senior

Big fan of the Big 12 Player of the Year, Melvin Ejim.  He's 23 years old, put up 18-8 as a senior at Iowa State.  If he goes to a good team (Grizzlies here would work) he could be a nice role player off the bench at first, before perhaps even elevating himself to that #3 scorer on a team.  Good size for a SF. He's more polished then some of the younger guys in the draft, but as is always the case there, the ceiling may not be as high.  Great potential pick for a playoff team though.


23. Utah Jazz (from Warriors) – Zach LaVine, SG, UCLA, Freshmen

One of the best athletes in the draft, LaVine played mostly 2-guard last year, but was a point in high school.  Shot decent from 3 (37.5%)  Utah would be happy to see LaVine fall down to #23.  He and Trey Burke would be an interesting young backcourt.  


24. Charlotte Hornets (from Trail Blazers) – Kyle Anderson, SF, UCLA, Sophomore

I've been all over the place with Anderson (LaVine's teammate last season.)  He's 6'8.5 with a wingspan over 7'2.  He does a lot of things well, put up roughly 15 points, 9 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 2 steals, and 1 block a game while shooting 48.3% from 3 (took less than 2 per game).  Another one of these guys who could be a terror on defense.  Could go as high as the lottery or as low as mid-20s.  Hornets might get a gem down here. 


25. Houston Rockets – Spencer Dimwiddie, G, Colorado, Junior

Played only 17 games last year because of a torn ACL.  I see him as a 2-guard, he believes he can play the point (what guard doesn't?).  Shoots real well, floor, 3, line, you name it.  Solid passer as well.  I like his chances in the league, especially if he joins a playoff team and turns into their second guard off the bench at first before expanding his role.  


26. Miami Heat – Glenn Robinson III, SF, Michigan, Sophomore

Not a huge fan of Robinson.  Let's be honest, you're not going to like 60 guys in every draft, you're not going to like 30 guys in every draft.  This one does have more than most, but late 1st you have your work cut out for you to find a guy to crack the rotation.  A young, athletic player at any position makes sense for the Miami Heat... unless LeBron opts out, then it's just panic in the streets.  


27. Phoenix Suns (from Pacers) – Jerami Grant, F, Syracuse, Sophomore

Syracuse had a brutal run of pros post Carmelo Anthony (Johnny Flynn, Donta Greene, Wesley Johnson, Fab Melo, etc, etc.) until Michael Carter-Williams who was Rookie of the Year (in a horrible class, but whatever).  Ennis and Grant I feel are more like the Flynns and Greenes than Melos and MCWs.   The son of former Bullet Harvey Grant and nephew of Horace, does not shoot from the outside and is more of a SF than PF certainly in the NBA... I kind of want to move him to 2nd round... it's too late, I've committed.  


28. Los Angeles Clippers – Jarnell Stokes, PF, Tennessee, Junior

Julius Randle - Lite of the SEC.  Good for 15 points and 10 rebounds a game last year at Tennessee.  Like Randle he doesn't have great height (just 6'8) but he's 260+ and has a wingspan over 7'1.  I could see Stokes carving out a career as a banger.  Undersized, strong rebounder off the bench.  20 years old despite being a junior also a positive.  

29. Oklahoma City Thunder – Shabazz Napier, PG, UConn, Senior 

Roxbury's own will be a 1st round pick, but he may have to wait a little while to hear his name called.  I don't see him as a future starter.  Leader of a bench mob?  Absolutely.  If he is running your second unit and playing 24+ minutes a night, I think it works.  I'll be rooting for the NCAA Tournament's Most Outstanding Player to succeed, but I'm not as high on him as some, especially in the Boston area.

30. San Antonio Spurs – C.J. Wilcox, SG, Washington, Senior

Maybe the best shooter in the draft.  Would be a nice pick up for a playoff team looking for a player that can stretch the floor.  Wilcox has good size for a 2 (6'5, 6'10 wing).  Shot over 39% from 3, making nearly 3 per game at Washington.  Also shot 87+% at the free throw line.  Stick him out there with Parker and Duncan and watch him rain 3's.  (I thought Reggie Bullock would be able to do this last year... and, he did not.)



ROUND 2:
31. Milwaukee Bucks – Thanasis Antetokounmpo, SF, D-League
32. Philadelphia 76ers – Mitch McGary, C, Michigan
33. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Magic) – Patric Young, PF, Florida
34. Dallas Mavericks (from Celtics) – DeAndre Kane, PG, Iowa State
35. Utah Jazz – Cleanthony Early, F, Wichita State
36. Milwaukee Bucks (from Lakers) – Johnny O’Bryant III, PF, LSU
37. Toronto Raptors (from Kings) – Cameron Bairstow, PF, New Mexico
38. Detroit Pistons – Jordan Clarkson, G, Missouri
39. Philadelphia 76ers (from Cavs) – Clint Capela, PF, Switzerland
40. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Pelicans) – Markel Brown, SG, Oklahoma State
41. Denver Nuggets – Walter Tavares, C, Cape Verde
42. Houston Rockets (from Knicks) – Dwight Powell, PF, Stanford
43. Atlanta Hawks – Jabari Brown, G, Missouri
44. Minnesota Timberwolves – Sean Kilpatrick, PG, Cincinnati
45. Charlotte Hornets  - Cory Jefferson, F, Baylor
46. Washington Wizards – Jordan Adams, G, UCLA
47. Philadelphia 76ers (from Nets) – Lamar Patterson, SG, Pittsburgh
48. Milwaukee Bucks (from Raptors) – DeAndre Daniels, F, UConn
49. Chicago Bulls – James Michael McAdoo, F, North Carolina
50. Phoenix Suns – Russ Smith, PG, Louisville
51. Dallas Mavericks – Jahii Carson, PG, Arizona State
52. Philadelphia 76ers (from Grizzlies) – Khem Birch, PF, UNLV
53. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Warriors) – Roscoe Smith, F, UNLV
54. Miami Heat – Alex Kirk, C, New Mexico
55. Philadelphia 76ers (from Rockets) – Jordan McRae, SG, Tennessee
56. Denver Nuggets (from Trail Blazers) – Semaj Christon, PG, Xavier
57. Indiana Pacers – Bryce Cotton, PG, Providence
58. San Antonio Spurs (from Clippers) – Roy Devyn Marble, SF, Iowa
59. Toronto Raptors (from Thunder) – Deonte Burton, G, Nevada
60. San Antonio Spurs – Nick Johnson, G, Arizona

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